KYIV AIR THREAT CLEARED: After a penetration into the city center, the air raid alert for Kyiv was lifted at 0858Z following the neutralization or passage of OWA-UAVs (0847Z, 0849Z, 0858Z, PS ZSU/KMVA, HIGH).
KUPYANSK ENCIRCLEMENT (UNCONFIRMED): Pro-Russian sources admit a tactical catastrophe in Kupyansk, stating several Russian assault companies are "encircled" (in a "cauldron") and contact with the local garrison has been lost due to UAF advances and severe weather (0854Z, Alex Parker Returns, MEDIUM).
ODESA/ZATOKA KINETIC ACTIVITY: New strikes reported in the Zatoka area of Odesa Oblast. This follows confirmed overnight Russian UAV strikes targeting Odesa’s port infrastructure (0839Z, 0851Z, Colonelcassad/Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH).
SOUTHERN KAB SURGE: Russian tactical aviation has launched a wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) targeting Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions (0904Z, PS ZSU, HIGH).
HULIAIPOLE HQ BREACH: Russian state media claims "stormtroopers" captured a UAF Brigade headquarters in the Huliaipole sector, supported by video evidence (0848Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
ADVERSE WEATHER OPERATIONS: A severe blizzard and "General Frost" (extreme icing) are significantly impacting drone operations and logistics in the Dnipropetrovsk and Kupyansk sectors (0842Z, 0854Z, Dnipropetrovsk ODA/Alex Parker, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Chernihiv): The UAV wave has largely dissipated or moved south of the capital. Kinetic focus has shifted away from the capital toward regional infrastructure.
Eastern Sector (Kupyansk/Donbas):
Kupyansk: The situation for RF forces has degraded from "panic" (reported 24h ago) to a localized collapse. UAF forces appear to have exploited weather-induced RF technical failures (drones grounded by snow) to isolate Russian units near Zapadne.
Rodynske: Intense fighting continues; RF forces are utilizing "Ulan-2" platforms (likely improvised or specialized transport) to push through the "Pre-New Year" mud/snow (0903Z, WarGonzo).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa):
Zaporizhzhia: Kinetic intensity is increasing. Beyond the claim of capturing a Brigade HQ in Huliaipole, at least one explosion was confirmed in a residential district of Zaporizhzhia (0858Z).
Odesa/Zatoka: The strike in Zatoka is significant as it targets a critical bottleneck for ground lines of communication (GLOCs) toward the Romanian border, corroborating the "Southern Isolation" threat identified in the previous daily report.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Tactical Course of Action: Facing a tactical crisis in Kupyansk, RF forces are likely compensating with increased stand-off strikes (KABs) in the South. The Russian military is observing the "Day of Military Air Defense" today (0836Z), which may correlate with heightened RF AD readiness to protect vulnerable rear assets from UAF drone counter-strikes.
Logistics & Sustainment: Weather is now a primary inhibitor. RF sources admit that "General Frost" is currently favoring the UAF in Kupyansk by grounding the RF drone advantage during UAF ground assaults.
Command & Control: The loss of contact with the Kupyansk garrison suggests a breakdown in tactical COMSEC or the physical destruction of C2 nodes in that sector.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Offensive Actions: UAF units in the Kupyansk sector are successfully conducting cold-weather operations, utilizing the blizzard to mask movements and encircle RF positions.
Air Defense: Successfully tracked and managed a multi-vector UAV threat over the capital, though port infrastructure in Odesa remains vulnerable.
Internal Security: Ukrainian authorities continue to purge potential internal threats, issuing new charges against the former head of the Kharkiv SBU (0846Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Economic/Political Fragility Narrative: Pro-Russian channels are amplifying claims that Ukraine cannot afford its own elections and is entirely dependent on the West for survival (0854Z, Operation Z).
Cultural Friction: Ukrainian sources are highlighting incidents of "cultural insensitivity" in the UK (The Guardian report) to bolster domestic resolve and highlight the necessity of preserving Ukrainian identity (0840Z, Sternenko).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will launch "emergency" aviation strikes in the Kupyansk sector to prevent the total liquidation of their encircled companies, despite the hazardous flying weather.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated Iskander or Kalibr strike on the Zatoka bridge/GLOC to permanently sever the Southern supply route while Odesa's energy grid is already compromised by overnight strikes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(P1) Kupyansk "Cauldron" Verification: Need SIGINT/ELINT confirmation of the status of the RF garrison. Are they attempting a breakout or surrendering?
(P2) Zatoka Damage Assessment: Urgent requirement for BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the Zatoka strike. Is the bridge/rail link operational?
(P3) KAB Launch Platforms: Identify the specific airbases launching the current Zaporizhzhia/Kherson KAB wave to enable counter-force strikes.
