AIR ALERT KYIV: A Russian OWA-UAV (Geran-type) has been detected over Lyubychiv on a direct vector toward Kyiv; Air Raid Alert is active in the capital as of 0834Z (0830Z, 0834Z, PS ZSU/KMVA, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA SECTOR LOSS (UNCONFIRMED): Multiple pro-Russian sources claim the capture of Kosovtsevo by "Group Vostok." This follows earlier reports of "cleansing" operations in the Huliaipole area (0815Z, 0829Z, Voin DV/Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
ODESA ENERGY EMERGENCY: Russian strikes successfully targeted two energy infrastructure facilities in southern Odesa Oblast, resulting in "significant damage" according to DTEK (0823Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH).
SPACE DOMAIN RECONSTITUTION: Russia successfully launched a Soyuz-2.1a carrier rocket from Plesetsk. This likely fulfills the requirement to restore organic ISR capabilities following recent reliance on commercial data (0834Z, Basurin, HIGH).
NORTHERN UAV PENETRATION: At least one strike UAV is currently traversing northern Rivne Oblast on a western heading, maintaining the threat to Western Ukrainian logistics (0823Z, PS ZSU, HIGH).
CHERNIVIH CASUALTIES: A confirmed drone strike on a residential building in Chernihiv has resulted in at least 10 civilian casualties (0820Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
HIGH-VALUE ASSET LOSS: Russian 305th Artillery Brigade claims the destruction of a UAF M109 Paladin (US-manufactured) in the Zaporizhzhia region via UAV-corrected fire (0817Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Rivne/Kyiv): The threat has transitioned from reconnaissance to active strikes. One UAV is moving west through Rivne, while another is closing on Kyiv. The strike in Chernihiv indicates a persistent "terror bombing" component to the current UAV wave.
Eastern Sector (Donbas): Political rhetoric continues to match military pressure; Putin reiterated demands for the entirety of the Donbas region (0814Z, Tsaplienko). Tactical reports indicate awards were issued to the 41st Guards Combined Arms Army (Group Tsentr), likely for recent efforts in the Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad axes.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa):
Zaporizhzhia: The claim of Kosovtsevo’s capture suggest Russia is successfully pushing into the tactical depth of the UAF southern line. The loss of an M109 Paladin in this sector confirms active RF counter-battery and drone-spotting effectiveness.
Odesa: The grid is under critical strain. The "double-tap" against two energy objects in the south suggests a deliberate effort to isolate Odesa's energy sector from the national grid.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Tactical Course of Action: Russia is currently executing a multi-domain surge. The successful Soyuz launch provides them with renewed orbital surveillance, while the coordinated UAV/KAB strikes exploit gaps in air defense identified during the previous 24 hours.
Zaporizhzhia Intentions: The focus on Kosovtsevo and Huliaipole suggests a desire to widen the southern breach to threaten the logistical nodes of the southern Donbas grouping.
Internal Security: Russian authorities report preventing a "terrorist attack" in Stavropol (0816Z), which may lead to increased domestic repression or be used to justify further escalatory strikes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Sustainability/Financing: Civil society is pivoting state-issued "Winter Thousand" (social assistance) funds toward military procurement (specifically drone production), indicating a high degree of domestic mobilization (0818Z, Sternenko).
Defensive Posture: UAF Air Defense remains active across northern and central sectors. Engineering units are engaged in rapid recovery of energy infrastructure in Odesa.
Information environment / disinformation
Foreign National Recruitment: UAF-linked channels are amplifying testimonies of captured Indian nationals to highlight Russian exploitation of foreign recruits and create friction between Moscow and the Global South (0828Z, Mykolaivskyi Vanek).
Distraction Narratives: Pro-Russian channels are amplifying reports of US strikes in Nigeria (0832Z, 0834Z). Analytic Note: This is likely intended to frame the US as a global aggressor to distract from Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure in Chernihiv and Odesa.
Normalcy Framing: Russian sources are emphasizing "holiday spending" and "New Year atmosphere" in occupied Donbas to signal stability despite ongoing combat operations (0822Z, 0832Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV activity over Kyiv and Western Ukraine. Likely kinetic impacts in the capital within the next 60-120 minutes. Odesa will likely experience emergency power shutdowns.
MDCOA: A coordinated follow-on missile strike (utilizing data from the new Soyuz satellite) targeting the relocated UAF tactical reserves moving to plug the Zaporizhzhia breach.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(P1) Kosovtsevo Status: Urgent requirement for GEOINT/visual confirmation of control in Kosovtsevo. Has UAF established a secondary line?
(P2) Soyuz Payload: Confirm if the Soyuz-2.1a deployment includes optical or SIGINT sensors capable of real-time battlefield management.
(P3) Odesa Grid Integrity: Assess if the damage to the two energy facilities in Odesa has compromised the GLOCs to the Romanian border or critical port operations.
