KAB SURGE (MARITIME/EASTERN): Russian VKS has initiated Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes targeting Kharkiv (from the east), Donetsk, and notably Odesa/Zatoka from the Black Sea (0741Z, 0751Z, PS ZSU, HIGH).
NORTHERN UAV PENETRATION: New UAV incursions from the north are trending toward Kovel (Volyn Oblast), indicating a western shift in reconnaissance or harassment flight paths (0739Z, PS ZSU, HIGH).
HULIAIPOLE OFFENSIVE: Pro-Russian sources report "Group Vostok" is actively clearing Ukrainian positions in Huliaipole, claiming tactical advances (0804Z, Basurin, MEDIUM).
DEFENSE INDUSTRY MOBILIZATION: Ukraine has implemented a 45-day accelerated deferment (reservation) mechanism for Defense Industry Complex (OPK) employees to stabilize the military production workforce (0800Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
DIPLOMATIC TIMELINE: Reports suggest a potential meeting between President Zelenskyy and US President-elect Trump in Florida on December 28 (0745Z, Kyiv Post/Tsaplienko, MEDIUM).
PEACEKEEPING NARRATIVE: Ukrainian official Mykhailo Podolyak reportedly claimed France, Germany, Turkey, and the UK are prepared to deploy a peacekeeping contingent (0758Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, UNCONFIRMED/LOW).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Volyn/Rivne): Russian OWA-UAVs are probing deeper into Western Ukraine (Kovel), likely identifying logistics hubs or air defense positioning near the Polish border.
Eastern Sector (Donbas/Pokrovsk/Lyman):
Pokrovsk: UAF paratroopers successfully destroyed a new-model Russian all-terrain vehicle, indicating continued RF reliance on unarmored or specialized light transport for "small group" infiltration (0745Z, RBK-Ukraine).
Torske (Lyman): RF artillery (381st Artillery Regiment) claims destruction of a UAF D-30 howitzer, suggesting active counter-battery duels in the Lyman sector (0801Z, DPR Militia).
Kharkiv: Sustained KAB strikes from the east target the regional capital and surrounding tactical rear.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa/Kherson):
Huliaipole: RF claiming "cleansing" operations. This represents a significant threat to the southern flank if a breakthrough is achieved toward the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk administrative border.
Kherson: Reports indicate "drone hunting" of civilians by RF forces, signaling a shift toward psychological terror and suppression in the riverine zone (0755Z, RBK-Ukraine).
Odesa/Zatoka: KAB launches from the Black Sea indicate a new vector of precision aerial assault against southern GLOCs and coastal infrastructure.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Tactical Shift: The transition from overnight mass-drone saturation (99 UAVs) to morning KAB strikes indicates a coordinated "double-tap" strategy—using drones to deplete AD and identify radars, followed by KABs for precision destruction of hard targets.
Capabilities: Use of KABs against Zatoka from the Black Sea suggests RF has modified launch profiles or munitions for longer-range maritime delivery, increasing the threat to Odesa’s southern logistics neck.
Logistics/Manpower: RF internal discourse on a 6-day work week and the sentencing of satirists (Nalivkin case) indicates an intensifying "war footing" in the domestic economy and continued intolerance for dissent (0742Z, 0751Z).
Hybrid Ops: The active promotion of the CAR training mission (2k personnel) highlights Russia's continued focus on "Global South" influence to distract Western strategic attention (0757Z, TASS).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Sustainability Measures: The 45-day OPK deferment mechanism is a critical operational adjustment to protect the workforce against the ongoing mobilization requirements, ensuring the "122mm rocket production" and drone initiatives remain staffed.
Counter-Drone Crowdfunding: Active fundraising (10M+ UAH) for interceptor drones (0743Z) indicates UAF is moving toward decentralized, low-cost solutions to counter the RF OWA-UAV threat.
War Crimes Accountability: The indictment of 18 individuals for torturing civilians in Kupyansk serves as a stabilizing morale factor and reinforces the rule of law in liberated territories (0800Z, Prosecutor General).
Information environment / disinformation
"Peacekeeper" Rumors: Podolyak’s alleged claim of European/Turkish troops (0758Z) is likely a strategic signal to pressure Western allies or a misinterpretation of "security guarantee" discussions. Analytic Note: High risk of being used by RF propaganda to frame the conflict as "NATO vs Russia."
Internal Friction: Footage of TCC confrontations in Lutsk (0743Z) is being amplified by RF channels (Colonelcassad) to undermine Ukrainian domestic stability and mobilization efforts.
Maximalist Goals: RF state media continues to broadcast Putin's demands for the entire Donbas (0749Z), likely intended to set a high bar for any "pre-New Year" negotiations.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued KAB strikes on Kharkiv and Odesa/Zatoka. Expect a second wave of UAVs tonight to maintain pressure on the power grid following the 45-day industry deferment announcement.
MDCOA: RF "Group Vostok" initiates a mechanized push from Huliaipole toward the Pokrovsk-Zaporizhzhia highway to sever the main supply artery for the southern Donbas grouping.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(P1) Odesa/Zatoka KABs: Determine launch platform (Su-34 vs Su-57) and specific KAB variant used from the Black Sea vector.
(P2) Huliaipole Status: Confirm the extent of the RF "cleansing" operations. Has the UAF main line of defense been breached or is this restricted to the "grey zone"?
(P3) Peacekeeping Claim: Verify the context of Podolyak’s statement. Is this an official UAF proposal or a hypothetical discussion during diplomatic pre-briefings for the Trump meeting?
