MASS AERIAL ATTACK: Russian forces launched 99 UAVs (approx. 60 Shahed-type) and 1 Iskander-M ballistic missile overnight. UAF reports 73 UAVs shot down or suppressed; the Iskander-M was not intercepted (0706Z-0712Z, PS ZSU / ASTRA, HIGH).
TACTICAL STRIKE (KURSK): Pilots of the UAF 78th Separate Air Assault Brigade successfully destroyed a Russian 2S1 "Gvozdika" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region (0714Z, DShV ZSU, HIGH).
INTERNAL SECURITY (KHARKIV): Former head of the SBU in Kharkiv Oblast detained on suspicion of attempting to seize state power during wartime (0715Z, Office of the General Prosecutor, HIGH).
COUNTER-TERRORISM NARRATIVE (RF): FSB reported the detention of an 18-year-old woman in Stavropol for allegedly planning a "terrorist attack" against a MoD officer under Ukrainian pressure (0709Z-0732Z, Multiple RF Sources, MEDIUM).
STRATEGIC SIGNALING: Zelenskyy reiterated an upcoming meeting with US President-elect Trump, stating "much can be decided before the New Year" (0729Z, RVvoenkor, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Rivne): Air defense successfully engaged the majority of the 99-drone swarm. The high volume of "suppressed" (EW) versus "shot down" drones suggests effective multi-layered electronic warfare deployment.
Eastern Sector (Donbas/Pokrovsk):
Baseline intensity remains high. RF continues shifting from mechanized "banzai" charges to small-group infantry infiltration.
Historical data (2018 records) contrasted with current destruction in Pokrovsk is being used in the information domain to highlight the scale of RF aggression (0733Z, Butusov Plus).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa/Mykolaiv):
Zaporizhzhia: RF sources claim minor advances (0719Z, Basurin, LOW/UNCONFIRMED). Regional administration has issued urgent "ATTENTION" alerts (0718Z).
Missile Threats: Active "Rocket Danger" warnings currently in effect for Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Odesa Oblasts as of 0734Z (PS ZSU, HIGH).
Kursk Axis: UAF continues precision attrition of RF artillery assets (2S1 Gvozdika) to degrade RF counter-offensive capabilities.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Air Domain: The 99-drone wave represents a "reconnaissance by fire" or saturation effort to deplete UAF AD interceptors before a potential larger missile salvo. The use of a single Iskander-M (0/1 intercept) indicates RF is testing specific gaps in ballistic missile defense in the south.
Information Operations: RF is aggressively promoting the Stavropol arrest (18-year-old student) to frame UAF special services as utilizing "telephone terrorism" and coercion against Russian youth. This aligns with internal domestic control measures and the "terrorism" label for UAF operations.
Logistics & Sustainment: RF Government announced paid travel/housing for SVO veteran escorts starting 2026, indicating a long-term commitment to managing the social and medical fallout of high casualty rates (0733Z, Colonelcassad).
Force Disposition: Tor-M2 and Osa-AKM SAM crews from the "Tsentr" Group of Forces are reportedly active in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, prioritized for drone defense (0730Z, MoD Russia).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Intelligence: The arrest of the former Kharkiv SBU chief suggests a persistent effort to purge "fifth column" elements and institutionalize security before any potential winter negotiations.
Precision Attrition: DShV (Air Assault) drone units are maintaining high lethality in the Kursk salient, specifically targeting mobile artillery that supports RF infantry assaults.
Diplomatic Maneuver: Strategic focus remains on securing a definitive stance from the incoming US administration. Zelenskyy's "before the New Year" timeline suggests a high sense of urgency regarding military aid continuity.
Information environment / disinformation
"Putin's Demands": Unverified reports of a "closed meeting" where Putin allegedly claimed the entire Donbas are circulating (0730Z, Operativno ZSU). Analytic Note: Likely intended to bolster domestic RF resolve or test Western reaction to maximalist goals.
Western Defeatism: RF state media (TASS) is amplifying claims that Western politicians "do not believe" in a Ukrainian victory without massive aid, aimed at eroding international support (0729Z, TASS).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued tactical missile strikes (Iskander-M/Kh-59) targeting Odesa and Mykolaiv transit hubs, following the overnight UAV saturation.
MDCOA: A follow-on heavy missile strike (Kh-101/555) from strategic bombers (Monchegorsk/Olenya) targeting the 750kV energy nodes in Central Ukraine to exploit AD depletion from the 99-drone wave.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(P1) Iskander-M Impact: Identify the specific target and BDA of the Iskander-M that evaded interception.
(P2) Zaporizhzhia Vector: Verify the scale of the alleged RF advances in the Zaporizhzhia sector reported by pro-Russian milbloggers.
(P3) Strategic Aviation: Monitor DTG for bomber takeoffs from Northern RF bases; the 99-drone wave highly correlates with "shaping" for a larger event.
