Sitrep 2025-12-26 02:06:01

Situation Update (0205Z 26 DEC 25)

KAB STRIKES ON KHARKIV: Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have expanded their stand-off bombardment, launching Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting the Kharkiv region (0151Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
DISINFORMATION - US DETAINEES: Russian state media is reporting that 27 Ukrainians are listed among the "worst" foreign detainees in the US, likely to strain bilateral relations (0144Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
MIL-BLOGGER RECRUITMENT: Russian airborne-affiliated channels (vdv_txt) are actively shifting audiences to alternative social media platforms (X/MAX), indicating potential contingency planning for platform bans or operational security adjustments (0150Z, Ru-Mil-Blogger, LOW).

Northeastern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv): The threat has widened. Following the 0120Z strikes on Sumy, the VKS has now engaged targets in the Kharkiv region (0151Z). This suggests a coordinated air campaign across the entire Northern border to fix UAF reserves and degrade staging areas for the Kupyansk axis.
Southeastern Sector (Donbas/Zaporizhzhia): High tactical aviation activity persists. While no new KAB launches were reported in the last 30 minutes, the surge reported at 0114Z indicates the VKS maintains a strike-ready posture over the Sea of Azov/Zaporizhzhia vector.
Southern Axis (Odesa): OWA-UAV threat remains active. Air Defense (AD) units are engaged. The status of the critical bridge to Romania remains the primary intelligence gap (P1).

Aviation Adaptations: The VKS is demonstrating the ability to rapidly shift weight of effort between the Sumy and Kharkiv axes. This "rolling" KAB delivery complicates UAF Air Defense (AD) interception math and forces the distribution of mobile AD assets along a wider front.
Hybrid Operations: The TASS report regarding "worst" Ukrainian detainees in the US (0144Z) is a classic information operation (IO) designed to coincide with the fake ISW report (0116Z). The objective is to create a cumulative narrative of "Ukrainian criminality and Western fatigue" to erode international support.
Command & Control (C2): The shift of Russian military bloggers to alternative platforms suggests a synchronized push to maintain influence channels outside of traditional Telegram ecosystems, possibly anticipating increased Western platform restrictions.

Air Defense Operations: UA Air Force is managing a multi-axis air threat (KABs in North/Northeast, UAVs in South).
Active Counter-Measures: UAF remains in a defensive posture regarding air threats but continues to hold the tactical initiative in the Kupyansk sector (near Zapadne) as per the previous daily report.

Targeted Narrative: The RF is currently prioritizing the "Ukrainian-American friction" narrative. By highlighting (or fabricating) the detention of Ukrainians in the US, they aim to provoke domestic US political debate regarding the "quality" of the partnership.
Belief Analysis: Dempster-Shafer modeling shows a strong belief (0.46) in sustained infrastructure strikes in the Kharkiv region, supported by UA Air Force telemetry.

MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued expansion of KAB strikes into the Kharkiv-Kupyansk GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication). The goal is to isolate UAF forward elements currently exploiting the Zapadne breakthrough.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Synchronized missile and drone strikes against energy infrastructure in Central Ukraine, timed to coincide with the arrival of the Odesa UAV wave and the tactical aviation surge to overwhelm the national power grid and AD coverage.

(P1) Odesa Bridge Integrity: URGENT. Satellite confirmation or ground reconnaissance required to verify the operational status of the primary GLOC to Romania.
(P2) VKS Sortie Rates: Determine if the current surge is a localized peak or the start of a multi-day sustained air offensive using renovated VKS airframes.
(P3) Detainee Verification: Corroborate TASS reports through diplomatic channels to neutralize the "criminality" narrative if proven false.

//REPORT ENDS//