KAB STRIKES ON SUMY: Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting the Sumy region (0120Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
VKS TACTICAL AVIATION SURGE: High activity of enemy tactical aviation detected on both South-Eastern and North-Eastern vectors (0114Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
FORGED ISW REPORT: Russian propaganda is circulating a falsified Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report concerning French nuclear forces to manipulate NATO escalation narratives (0116Z, CPD/RBC-UA, HIGH).
RF ECONOMIC PIVOT: Sberbank announced an expansion of 10 new offices in India, signaling a long-term strategy to bypass Western financial isolation (0133Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
GLOBAL MARKET VOLATILITY: Silver futures hit a record high of $75/oz, potentially impacting high-end electronics and industrial manufacturing costs for defense sectors (0107Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northeastern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv): The sector has transitioned from "monitoring" to "active engagement" following KAB launches at 0120Z. This indicates a focus on disrupting UAF tactical reserves or logistics hubs near the border.
Southeastern Axis (Donbas/Zaporizhzhia): Increased tactical aviation activity suggests preparation for close air support (CAS) or strikes against UAF forward positions. This follows the 1437Z (25 DEC) reports of KAB strikes in the Zaporizhzhia axis.
Southern Axis (Odesa): The OWA-UAV wave (Shahed-type) reported at 0037Z remains the primary threat to maritime and port infrastructure. No confirmed impacts yet, but Air Defense (AD) remains engaged.
International/Rear: US strikes on ISIS in Nigeria (announced 0130Z) and UK legal developments regarding Prince Andrew (0122Z) are noted but assessed as non-critical to the Ukrainian Theater of Operations (UTO).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Tactics: The RF is expanding the use of KABs from the Zaporizhzhia axis (previous daily report) to the Sumy axis. This demonstrates a standardized reliance on stand-off precision glide bombs to degrade UAF defenses without entering the immediate MANPADS engagement zone.
Hybrid Operations: The forgery of ISW reports marks an evolution in disinformation sophistication. By utilizing the branding of a respected Western analytical institution, the RF aims to inject "escalation fatigue" into the French and European political discourse regarding nuclear posture.
Strategic Logistics: The Sberbank expansion in India indicates the RF is successfully establishing alternative financial corridors to sustain its military-industrial complex despite ongoing sanctions.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: UA Air Force is managing multiple threats simultaneously: OWA-UAVs in the South and Tactical Aviation/KABs in the North and Southeast. AD units are likely in a high-mobility state to avoid SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) operations.
Strategic Communications: The Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD) has demonstrated high agility by debunking the fake ISW report within the same hour of its circulation.
Information environment / disinformation
Narrative Manipulation: The RF has shifted focus from "Ukrainian war crimes" (0103Z) to "NATO/French nuclear escalation" (0116Z). This is a calculated attempt to pressure Western allies to limit support to avoid perceived nuclear risks.
Confidence Assessment: HIGH. The speed of the UAF response to the ISW forgery confirms a high state of readiness in the cognitive domain.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued KAB strikes in the Sumy and Zaporizhzhia sectors to "soften" UAF lines, synchronized with the Odesa UAV wave reaching its terminal phase. Expected impact window for Odesa: 0200Z-0330Z.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): The surge in tactical aviation (SE/NE) and UAVs (South) is a coordinated effort to fix UA Air Defense assets in place, clearing a corridor for a heavy cruise missile strike from Strategic Aviation (Tu-95s) or the Black Sea Fleet between 0400Z and 0600Z.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(P1) Odesa Bridge Status:URGENT. Still no confirmation on the structural integrity of the primary GLOC to Romania.
(P2) Sumy BDA: Identify the specific targets of the 0120Z KAB strikes. Assess if the targets were military concentrations or civilian energy infrastructure.
(P3) Tactical Aviation Loadout: Determine if the VKS aircraft in the SE/NE are carrying KABs exclusively or if they are equipped with Kh-59/69 cruise missiles for deeper penetration.
