NEW UAV WAVE ON ODESA: Ukrainian Air Force confirms a group of OWA-UAVs (Shahed-type) launched from the Black Sea, currently on a vector toward Odesa (0037Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
COORDINATED INFORMATION OPERATION: Russian-aligned sources have initiated a synchronized propaganda campaign regarding an "International Public Tribunal" to frame Ukrainian leadership for war crimes (0103Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
CONTINUED REAR STRIKE PRESSURE: The detection of new UAVs heading south confirms the RF "sequential saturation" strategy, alternating between Western (Volyn) and Southern (Odesa) targets within a 2-hour window (0037Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Odesa/Black Sea): The sector is again active following a brief lull. Adversary forces are utilizing the Black Sea maritime corridor to mask the approach of UAV groups. This follows reports of previous explosions at 2328Z (25 DEC), suggesting a multi-wave effort to exhaust local Air Defense (AD) magazines.
Northwestern Sector (Volyn): Damage assessment continues following the 0013Z strike on critical infrastructure. No new kinetic activity reported in this sector in the last 60 minutes.
Rear Areas (RF): Internal Russian administrative shifts (alcohol bans in Irkutsk) are noted but assessed as having zero impact on current theater operations (0038Z, TASS, HIGH).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Capabilities & Intentions: The RF is maintaining high-tempo OWA-UAV operations. The launch of UAVs from the Black Sea indicates maritime-based or Crimean-based launch platforms remain operational and unsuppressed.
Tactical Adaptations: The enemy is utilizing "pulsed" attacks—striking Volyn, then Odesa—to force UAF AD to stay active across the entire national depth, preventing the consolidation of AD assets in any single priority zone.
Information Warfare: The launch of the "Public Tribunal" narrative (0103Z) is likely timed to coincide with these kinetic strikes to provide a "moral" justification for the targeting of Ukrainian infrastructure and to distract from reported high RF attrition in the Myrnohrad sector.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: UA Air Force is actively tracking and engaging the maritime UAV wave. Electronic Warfare (EW) units in the Odesa region are likely engaged in GPS-jamming/spoofing to disrupt UAV terminal guidance.
Civil Defense: Air raid alerts remain active for Odesa and surrounding districts.
Information environment / disinformation
Psychological Operations (PSYOPS): The promotion of the "International Public Tribunal" by high-reach RF milbloggers (Colonelcassad) is a classic hybrid warfare tactic. It seeks to create a "legalistic" veneer for RF aggression and is likely targeted at both domestic Russian audiences and neutral international observers. (Dempster-Shafer Belief: Information Warfare 0.20; Legal Allegations 0.15).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): The current Odesa UAV wave will attempt to strike port or energy infrastructure. This will likely be followed by a final evaluation of UA AD responses before the anticipated Strategic Aviation (Tu-95/160) missile launch in the 0300Z-0600Z window.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): The maritime UAVs are acting as "bait" to force UA AD radars to emit, which will then be targeted by Kh-31P (anti-radiation) missiles or followed immediately by a low-altitude cruise missile strike bypassing the now-depleted AD batteries.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(P1) Odesa Bridge Status:STILL UNCONFIRMED. Urgent requirement to verify if the primary GLOC to Romania remains traversable or if pontoons are the only transit method.
(P2) Volyn Strike BDA: Identify if the 0013Z strike hit the energy grid or rail infrastructure. Impact on Western aid flow is the priority.
(P3) Maritime Launch Platform: Confirm if the 0037Z UAV wave was launched from land-based sites in Crimea or naval vessels in the Black Sea.
