CONFIRMED KALIBR SALVO SIZE: Operational data confirms a minimum of 10 Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea fleet. (Operativno ZSU, 2151Z, HIGH).
KINETIC IMPACTS IN MYKOLAIV: Multiple missile "arrivals" confirmed in Mykolaiv, resulting in significant secondary fires; visual evidence corroborates strikes on infrastructure or industrial targets. (Kotenok/Colonelcassad, 2150Z, HIGH).
OWA-UAV VECTOR TO ODESA: Multiple groups of Geran-2 (Shahed) UAVs detected over the Black Sea, currently on a vector toward Tatarbunary, Odesa Oblast. (UA Air Force, 2155Z, HIGH).
LVIV TARGETING PSYOP: Pro-Russian channels have issued specific "congratulatory" threats toward Lviv (Lemberg), potentially indicating the next target for the ongoing missile wave or a diversionary information operation. (NgP RaZVедка, 2140Z, MEDIUM).
SU-75 "CHECKMATE" PROPAGANDA: Russian state media is circulating promotional materials regarding the Su-75 light tactical fighter; assessed as a domestic morale booster and export marketing effort following recent losses of organic ISR satellites. (Colonelcassad, 2202Z, LOW CONFIDENCE of operational status).
OUT-OF-THEATER ACTIVITY (CAR): RF MoD reports joint operations with the CAR army to destroy militant bases; indicates continued commitment to extra-regional hybrid power projection despite domestic logistical strain. (TASS, 2137Z, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Mykolaiv/Odesa): This is currently the primary Kinetic focus. Mykolaiv has sustained at least three distinct "arrivals" with confirmed fires. The Odesa region (Tatarbunary) is the projected impact zone for the incoming UAV wave.
Western Axis (Lviv/Volyn): Following the strike in Volyn (2115Z), the threat to Lviv has increased. Air defense assets are likely repositioning to intercept long-range Kalibr trajectories.
Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Luhansk): Small-unit actions continue. The 110th Brigade (UAF) reports successful FPV strikes against RF infantry, maintaining tactical friction despite the larger strategic missile event.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
1. Strategic Strike Dynamics:
The RF has transitioned to the "Impact Phase" of its coordinated strike. By pairing sea-launched Kalibrs with a secondary wave of OWA-UAVs from the south, the RF is attempting to saturate Ukrainian Integrated Air Defense Systems (IADS) along the Black Sea coast to clear lanes for deeper penetrations into the interior (Central/Western Ukraine).
2. Modernization & Capabilities:
The Su-75 "Checkmate" promotion (2202Z) serves as a strategic distraction. While marketed as an operational service entry, it is likely intended to counter the narrative of Russian technological stagnation following the UAF strikes on the Orenburg Gas Plant and the emergency Soyuz-2.1a launch.
3. Logistics & Sustainment:
While the Moscow blizzard (2109Z) continues to hamper northern logistics, the Black Sea fleet remains fully operational for launch cycles, indicating that naval VLS (Vertical Launch System) reloading was completed prior to the current weather window.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: UA Air Force is actively tracking multiple targets. Red Alert remains in effect for Southern and Western oblasts.
Tactical Counter-UAS: The 110th Brigade and other front-line units continue to utilize FPV drones for localized attrition, successfully engaging RF infantry in the Eastern sector (2205Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Lviv Threat (Cognitive Pressure): The mention of Lviv by NgP RaZVедка (2140Z) is likely a psychological operation designed to induce panic in Western logistics hubs. However, given the Kalibr flight paths, this must be treated as a credible tactical warning.
Russian "Success" in CAR: The TASS report (2137Z) seeks to project the image of a "Global Russia" capable of multi-theater operations, distracting from the attrition-heavy "small group" tactics currently necessitated in Myrnohrad.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued missile and UAV arrivals in the Odesa and Mykolaiv regions. The RF will likely attempt to hit energy distribution nodes in the South to trigger regional blackouts.
MDCOA: A coordinated turn of the Kalibr wave toward Western Ukraine (Lviv/Volyn) to strike GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication) during the peak of the air alert, potentially involving "stray" munitions near the Polish border to amplify the "Poland drone" disinformation narrative previously established.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(P1) Mykolaiv BDA: Urgent Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) required for the Mykolaiv "arrivals." Identify if the targets were power generation, grain terminals, or military logistics.
(P2) Odesa UAV Interception Rate: Monitor AD effectiveness in the Tatarbunary vector. Are RF UAVs using new low-altitude flight paths to evade radar?
(P3) Kalibr Inventory: Assess if the "10+ missiles" constitutes the full salvo or if a second wave from the Caspian Flotilla or Tu-95MS platforms is currently airborne.
