KALIBR MISSILE LAUNCHES DETECTED: Active launches of Kalibr cruise missiles from sea-based platforms confirmed. (Nikolaevsky Vanek, 2133Z, HIGH).
VOLYN INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKE: Confirmed kinetic strike on a critical infrastructure object in Volyn Oblast; follows Shahed UAV activity in the region. (Operativno ZSU/Volyn OVA, 2115Z, HIGH).
HULIAIPOLE PENETRATION ACKNOWLEDGED: Ukrainian sources now acknowledge RF claims of capturing a Territorial Defense (TrO) battalion headquarters in Huliaipole, corroborating earlier visual evidence. (Operativno ZSU, 2132Z, HIGH).
MYKOLAIV KINETIC ACTIVITY: Explosion reported in Mykolaiv; cause (missile/UAV/interception) currently being assessed. (RBK-UA, 2128Z, MEDIUM).
SOYUZ-2.1A LAUNCH CONFIRMED: RF MoD confirms the successful 17:11 launch of a military satellite from Plesetsk, aimed at reconstituting organic ISR. (MoD Russia, 2105Z, HIGH).
MOSCOW LOGISTICAL DISRUPTION: Severe blizzard in Moscow has delayed 156 flights, likely impacting the transit of military personnel and specialized technical components. (Новости Москвы, 2109Z, HIGH).
POLAND BORDER DISINFORMATION: Pro-Russian channels are alleging Ukrainian OWA-UAVs are moving toward Polish airspace. (NgP RaZVедка, 2118Z, LOW - Evaluated as Information Operation/Disinformation).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has escalated from localized tactical probing to a coordinated multi-domain strike. The detection of Kalibr launches (2133Z) signifies the transition to the "retaliatory mass-missile event" predicted in the previous 24h cycle. The RF is currently pairing sea-launched cruise missiles with OWA-UAV waves (Geran-2) and tactical aviation to saturate Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) across the Western (Volyn), Southern (Mykolaiv), and Eastern axes. The confirmed loss of the Huliaipole C2 node indicates a tactical regression in the Southern Axis that requires immediate stabilization.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Tactical Operations & Course of Action:
Strategic Strike (Multi-Vector): The RF has initiated a synchronized strike. The Volyn infrastructure hit (2115Z) demonstrates a reach into Western Ukraine, likely intended to disrupt energy or logistics related to Western aid. The simultaneous Kalibr launches suggest a complex, time-on-target (ToT) strike is developing.
Modernization/Sustainment: The delivery of AK-15K rifles in "Multicam" (2111Z) indicates Kalashnikov Concern is meeting specialized unit requirements, likely for paratroopers or Spetsnaz units involved in the Myrnohrad/Huliaipole infiltration efforts.
Space Domain: The Soyuz-2.1a launch (2105Z) is now a confirmed fact. This indicates a high-priority effort to restore Russian space-based surveillance, possibly to counter recent UAF deep-strike successes (Orenburg/Temryuk).
Logistics & Environment:
Domestic Strain: Severe weather in Moscow (2109Z) provides a brief window of disruption for RF high-command movements and air-logistics hubs.
Personnel Issues: Reports of Kazakhstan prosecuting citizens fighting for the RF (2119Z) suggest increasing diplomatic and legal friction within the CSTO, potentially limiting the RF's "international" recruitment pool.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Operational Posture & Readiness:
Air Defense: AD units in Volyn and Mykolaiv are actively engaged. The detection of Kalibrs (2133Z) has likely triggered a national-level Red Alert state.
Southern Sector (Huliaipole): UAF TrO units have suffered a confirmed loss of a battalion-level HQ. Forces in this sector are likely in a defensive-reorganization phase to prevent the RF from turning this tactical breach into an operational breakthrough toward the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk border.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Disinformation/Provocation: The claim that Ukrainian drones are heading toward Poland (2118Z) is a classic RF hybrid tactic. Analysis: This is likely a "false flag" narrative or a precursor to an RF missile/UAV "straying" into NATO airspace to test alliance resolve while blaming Ukraine.
State Propaganda: The release of Putin-themed animation (2132Z) is timed for the New Year holidays, aiming to reinforce the domestic "cult of personality" and distract from recent strategic setbacks (Orenburg strike).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Over the next 3-6 hours, a large-scale missile arrival will impact Central and Western Ukraine. Kalibrs will likely target energy infrastructure and C2 nodes to maximize the effect of the ongoing "winter freeze" strategy.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF leverages the "Poland drone" disinformation to justify a "defensive" strike near the Ukrainian-Polish border or uses a wayward missile to provoke a crisis that forces a pause in Western military transit through the Volyn corridor.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
(P1) Kalibr Trajectories: Identify the specific targets of the current Kalibr wave. Are they heading for Kyiv or Western logistics hubs?
(P2) Volyn Strike Assessment: Determine the specific "critical infrastructure" hit (Energy vs. Transport). Assess if this impacts the main Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) from Poland.
(P3) Huliaipole Depth: Confirm the current location of the forward edge of the battle area (FEBA) in Huliaipole following the loss of the TrO HQ.
(P4) Disinfo Verification: Monitor Polish border radar/SIGINT for any actual UAV/missile incursions to debunk the NgP RaZVедка narrative.
