Situation Report

Situation Update (1705Z 25 DEC 25)

Key updates since last sitrep

• DEEP STRIKE CONFIRMATION: UAF General Staff has officially confirmed successful overnight strikes on military targets in Krasnodar Krai and the Republic of Adygea, corroborating earlier reports of a massive 141-drone wave. (1657Z, ASTRA, HIGH)
• SIVERSK AXIS ESCALATION: Pro-Russian sources report significant tactical advances west and southwest of the Siversk stronghold. (1703Z, Рыбарь, MEDIUM).
• ENERGY GRID INSTABILITY: Ukrenergo has announced nationwide rolling blackouts for tomorrow, December 26, across most regions, likely due to cumulative infrastructure damage and peak winter demand. (1654Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH).
• DIPLOMATIC STALEMATE (ZNPP): Russian officials have formally rejected a US-led proposal for an international management consortium at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), insisting on unilateral control. (1643Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM).
• TACTICAL LOGISTICS INNOVATION: RF forces (Group "Vostok") are deploying "Mangas" heavy hexacopters for frontline resupply of munitions and water, attempting to bypass Ukrainian fire control over ground supply lines. (1702Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH).
• INTERNAL RF FRICTION: Prominent mil-bloggers have escalated public criticism of "bronze" MoD leadership, contrasting "lying" senior officers with effective Spetsnaz units. (1645Z, Военкор Котенок, MEDIUM).

Operational picture (by sector)

Kupyansk Axis: UAF initiative near Zapadne remains the primary operational feature. No new Russian counter-claims of stabilization have emerged in the last hour, suggesting the RF "Western" Group remains in a reactive posture.

Siversk Sector: NEW DEVELOPMENT: RF forces claim to have exploited tactical positions to the west/southwest of the Siversk stronghold. If confirmed, this indicates a potential attempt to envelope the Siversk salient, bypassing the city’s primary eastern defenses. (UNCONFIRMED; LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

Pokrovsk / Myrnohrad Sector: Russian "Center" (Otvazhnye) elements claim to be assaulting "surrounded" Myrnohrad and pushing toward the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. While "surrounded" is likely hyperbole, the intent to expand the operational depth into the neighboring oblast is a clear escalation of intent. (1639Z, Операция Z, MEDIUM).

Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Local administration is prioritizing civilian resilience, delivering specialized utility equipment to maintain services under KAB and drone pressure. (1639Z, Zaporizhzhia ODA, HIGH).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Tactical Adaptations:

• Drone Resupply: The transition to heavy hexacopter resupply (hexacopter "Mangas") indicates that UAF FPV and artillery interdiction of "last mile" logistics has become so effective that RF forces are forced to use air corridors for basic sustainment.
• Assault Tempo: Despite internal MoD criticism, the "Center" group maintains high-intensity pressure on the Myrnohrad-Rodynske vector, utilizing winter weather as concealment for small-group infantry movements.

Logistics & Sustainment:

• Rear Corruption: The criminal investigation and "wanted" status of the former Deputy Governor of Rostov Oblast (Владимир Окунев) suggest systemic corruption within the primary logistical hub supporting the "Special Military Operation." This may impact long-term sustainment reliability. (1642Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).

Friendly activity (UAF)

Rear Operations:

• Deep Strikes: The General Staff’s public confirmation of the Krasnodar/Adygea strikes signals confidence in the long-range program and serves as a morale booster for the domestic audience.
• Sustainment: Artillery units (e.g., 55th Separate Artillery Brigade) continue to rely on civilian crowdfunding for technical upgrades, indicating persistent gaps in official procurement for high-tech battlefield needs. (1653Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH).

Information environment / disinformation

• POW Exploitation: A staged football match in occupied Donetsk between RF forces and Ukrainian POWs (1636Z) and MoD-released "good treatment" videos (1701Z) are being used to counter international reports of POW abuse and project a "humanitarian" image.
• Sovereignty Narrative: RF state media is amplifying claims that the UAF is too large for the Ukrainian economy to sustain, framing international support as a total loss of Ukrainian sovereignty. (1642Z, TASS, LOW).
• Ahmad Spetsnaz Rhetoric: General Alaudinov’s claims of an imminent "front collapse" (1654Z) likely serve as a distraction from the internal command criticisms circulating in the nationalist mil-blogger sphere.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• Mass Strike Probability: (HIGH) With Ukrenergo pre-emptively announcing blackouts and SAR spikes at RF bomber bases (Monchegorsk), a large-scale retaliatory missile strike against the power grid remains the most likely RF course of action tonight.
• Siversk Maneuver: Expect increased RF artillery and drone activity west of Siversk as they attempt to validate reported territorial gains and consolidate new firing positions.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. (P1) Siversk Confirmation: Urgent requirement for GEOINT/SIGINT to verify RF claims of advances west/southwest of Siversk.
2. (P2) Myrnohrad Encirclement Status: Assess the actual degree of RF fire control over the remaining GLOCs into Myrnohrad. Is the city "surrounded" or merely contested?
3. (P3) Dnipropetrovsk Border Activity: Monitor for small-group reconnaissance-in-force (RIF) operations crossing the administrative border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
4. (P4) AD Reconstitution: Identify if the Soyuz-2.1a launch (1432Z) has integrated with RF ground-based AD to provide early warning against the ongoing UAF drone campaign.

//REPORT ENDS//