DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT (STRATEGIC): President Zelenskyy conducted high-level discussions with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner regarding "realistic" peace frameworks and reconstruction. This confirms a concerted effort to engage with future US administration stakeholders. (1606Z, 1613Z, 1615Z, Multiple Sources, HIGH).
KUPYANSK COUNTEROFFENSIVE: Russian mil-bloggers admit to "heavy fighting" and claim UAF forces are "significantly superior" in numbers/capability in this sector, indicating the UAF initiative near Zapadne is sustained and expanding. (1633Z, Военкор Котенок, MEDIUM).
CIVILIAN TARGETING (KOSTIANTYNIVKA): A Russian drone strike killed a volunteer worker during a civilian evacuation mission. (1610Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH).
TACTICAL FIREPOWER (DIMITROVO): Russian 110th Brigade is conducting high-intensity MLRS "Grad" barrages near Dimitrovo (Myrnohrad sector), described as a "fire wall" to suppress UAF positions. (1625Z, WarGonzo, MEDIUM).
INTERNAL SECURITY (KYIV): A stabbing attack in the Kyiv Metro resulted in two civilian casualties; police have apprehended the suspect. This follows reports of domestic tension (TCC incident) earlier today. (1612Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH).
DOMESTIC RF PRESSURE: Igor Strelkov (Girkin) has publicly called for full mobilization and putting Russia on a "war footing," highlighting persistent ultra-nationalist dissatisfaction with current RF operational tempo. (1607Z, Стрелков Игорь Иванович, MEDIUM).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:
Kupyansk Axis: UAF maintains the tactical initiative. Enemy sources report a defensive posture by the Russian "Western" Group of Forces. Key terrain near Zapadne remains contested but trending toward UAF consolidation.
Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad Sector: The focus has shifted to the Dimitrovo vector. Russia is utilizing saturation indirect fire (MLRS) to compensate for the failure of previous "small group" infantry infiltrations.
Kyiv: While Shahed threats persist from the north (referencing 1537Z report), the internal security environment is stressed by localized violent crime and ongoing mobilization friction.
Weather and Environmental Factors:
Severe winter conditions continue. Heavy snow and low visibility are likely driving the reliance on "Grad" MLRS and drones for fire support, as precision guided munitions and manned aviation effectiveness is degraded.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities and Adaptations:
Fire Support Transition: Failing to achieve breakthroughs with mechanized or light infantry "small groups," RF forces in the Donbas are reverting to "Fire Wall" (Огневой вал) tactics—massed unguided MLRS fire—to deny terrain to UAF.
Information Warfare: RF channels are recycling 2008-era documents regarding NATO accession to frame the current conflict as a historical inevitability, likely to bolster domestic resolve as economic indicators (per Ukrainian CPD) continue to degrade.
Logistics and Sustainment:
Personnel Morale: MoD Russia is releasing highly choreographed video propaganda of "surrender or die" ultimatums, likely intended to mask their own high attrition rates in the Kupyansk and Pokrovsk sectors.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Tactical Posture:
Counter-Offensive Capability: UAF has successfully transitioned from a defensive to an offensive posture in the Kupyansk sector, forcing RF Group "Western" into a reactive, defensive mode.
Civilian Protection: UAF continues to support evacuation missions in high-threat zones like Kostiantynivka, though these remain high-risk due to RF OWA-UAV (One-Way Attack) persistence.
Diplomatic Maneuvering:
The Zelenskyy-Witkoff-Kushner channel suggests UAF leadership is attempting to secure a "Christmas peace framework" that bypasses traditional bureaucratic delays, focusing on "realistic" and "reliable" security guarantees.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Disinformation and PSYOPS:
Internal RF Friction: The critique of General Alaudinov as a "religious philosopher" by mil-blogger Kotenok indicates growing cracks in the unified Russian command narrative, specifically between Chechen "Akhmat" elements and the broader Russian nationalist military community.
Economic Narrative: The Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD) is actively targeting the Russian "stability" narrative, highlighting economic degradation to erode RF domestic support.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
In the next 6-12 hours, RF will continue massed MLRS suppression in the Myrnohrad sector to prevent UAF counter-attacks. UAF will likely consolidate gains in the Kupyansk sector while prepping for Russian retaliatory strikes against the energy grid (per earlier SAR spikes at Monchegorsk).
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
Russian forces may utilize the chaos of the "fire wall" in Dimitrovo to attempt a localized chemical agent deployment (pretexted by earlier "Baba Yaga" gas claims) to break UAF lines where conventional fire has failed.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
(P1) Kupyansk Strength: Confirm the exact scale of UAF advances near Zapadne. Are Russian forces retreating or merely repositioning?
(P2) Dimitrovo Munitions: Monitor for the use of thermobaric (TOS-1A) or incendiary munitions alongside the "Grad" barrages in Dimitrovo.
(P3) Internal Security Linkage: Determine if the Kyiv Metro stabbing and the Dnipro TCC attack are isolated criminal incidents or part of a coordinated "Stay-Behind" hybrid operation to destabilize the rear.
(P4) Deep Strike Retaliation: Urgent SIGINT/ELINT monitoring of RF Long-Range Aviation (LRA) frequencies following the 141-drone UAF wave.
