Situation Update (1605Z 25 DEC 25)
Key updates since last sitrep
- NORTHERN AIR THREAT: Shahed-type UAVs have transitioned from Chernihiv Oblast into northern Kyiv Oblast. (1537Z, Повітряні Сили ЗСУ, HIGH).
- STRATEGIC DIPLOMACY: President Zelensky confirmed high-level meetings with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner (Trump associates) to discuss peace frameworks and "realistic" steps to end the war. (1604Z, Zelenskiy / Official, HIGH).
- TACTICAL STRIKE (KOSTIANTYNIVKA): A Russian drone targeted a civilian evacuation mission in Kostiantynivka. This follows earlier unconfirmed reports of strikes on C2 nodes in the same sector. (1553Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH).
- CHEMICAL WARFARE ALLEGATIONS (UNCONFIRMED): Russian mil-bloggers claim UAF "Baba Yaga" drones are deploying poisonous gas/chemical agents against storm groups. This is likely a "false flag" narrative or pretext for Russian chemical use. (1539Z, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, LOW).
- INTERNAL SECURITY (DNIPRO): The Office of the General Prosecutor has opened a criminal case following a physical attack/wounding of TCC (recruitment) officers. (1600Z, Офіс Генерального прокурора, HIGH).
- COMMUNICATIONS RISK: Reports indicate potential instability in Telegram connectivity, threatening the primary informal C2 and OSINT channel for both sides. (1550Z, Старше Эдды, MEDIUM).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:
- Kyiv/Northern Sector: The air threat has shifted south. Echelons of OWA-UAVs are bypassing border screens in Chernihiv to threaten the capital's power grid.
- Donbas (Vostok Sector): The Russian "Vostok" (East) grouping is reporting intensified operations. The focus remains on exploiting gaps in the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka-Myrnohrad triangle.
- Rear Areas: Power constraints persist; one additional casualty was reported in Kyiv from a previous strike, indicating the high lethality of Russian persistence strikes on urban centers (1557Z).
Weather and Environmental Factors:
- Operational Impact: Continued extreme cold and snow are confirmed by footage of Russian Mi-8/17 helicopters operating in blizzard conditions. This weather favors short-range UAV operations over manned aviation but complicates ground logistics for both sides (1547Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities and Adaptations:
- VKS Tactics: Russian rotary-wing assets (Mi-8/17) remain active despite severe weather, likely providing tactical insert or CASEVAC for "small group" infantry units near the front.
- Hybrid Narratives: The sudden emergence of "chemical gas" allegations (1539Z) is a significant escalation in the information domain. It aims to delegitimize UAF technical advantages (heavy drones) and may signal Russian intent to use non-conventional riot control agents.
Logistics and Sustainment:
- Internal Economic Strain: The Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade has proposed delaying recycling fee payments for domestic vehicle manufacturers until 2026, signaling liquidity issues in the Russian defense-industrial base (1545Z).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Tactical Posture:
- UAV Dominance: Russian sources acknowledge that UAF "Baba Yaga" platforms are maintaining 24/7 presence over key sectors, effectively interdicting Russian storm groups.
- Diplomatic Pivot: UAF leadership is proactively engaging with upcoming US administration stakeholders. This suggests a strategic effort to secure long-term military aid and synchronize peace frameworks before potential US policy shifts.
Readiness and Constraints:
- Internal Friction: The wounding of TCC personnel in Dnipro (1600Z) highlights the ongoing domestic tension regarding mobilization. This remains a critical vulnerability that Russian PSYOPS (e.g., Alex Parker, 1557Z) are actively exploiting.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Disinformation Trends:
- Dehumanization: Russian channels continue to disseminate graphic imagery of wounded UAF veterans with derogatory captions to erode domestic Ukrainian morale.
- Repression as Stability: TASS is amplifying the 6-year sentencing of opposition figure Sergey Udaltsov for "justifying terrorism," a move designed to signal internal Russian control despite front-line attrition (1538Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
In the next 6 hours, the Shahed group will enter Kyiv's airspace, likely synchronized with localized FPV drone surges in Kostiantynivka to suppress UAF movement. Russian forces will continue to amplify the "chemical gas" narrative to the international community.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
Leveraging the reported "instability" of Telegram (1550Z), RF forces may launch a coordinated kinetic and cyber-attack on UAF C2 nodes, attempting to capitalize on the communication "blackout" to achieve a localized breakthrough in the Vostok sector.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
- (P1) Chemical Attribution: Urgent requirement for ground-level air sampling in sectors where "gas" usage is alleged. Determine if RF is using K-51 (CS gas) or framing UAF.
- (P2) Telegram Continuity: Assess alternative C2/comms pathways (Signal/Delta/Starlink) in case of a wider Telegram outage.
- (P3) Vostok Group Strength: Identify if the "Vostok" grouping has received the new "Berdysh" drones reported in the previous sitrep.
- (P4) Diplomatic Feedback: Monitor for any Russian "spoiler" attacks (mass missile strikes) intended to disrupt the Zelensky-Trump associate channel.
//REPORT ENDS//
