Situation Update (1535Z 25 DEC 25)
Key updates since last sitrep
- NEW THREAT AXIS (UNCONFIRMED): Russian sources claim a precision strike in Kostiantynivka targeting and "eliminating" high-ranking GUR (Military Intelligence) and SBU officers. (1531Z, Дневник Десантника, LOW).
- AERIAL ACTIVITY: UA Air Force confirms a group of Shahed-type UAVs entering Chernihiv Oblast, currently on a vector toward Mena and Koriukivka. (1510Z, Повітряні Сили ЗСУ, HIGH).
- TACTICAL TECH DEPLOYMENT: RF has reportedly delivered the first batch of "Berdysh" heavy strike drones to the front. This platform likely expands RF tactical strike depth and UGV-interdiction capabilities. (1532Z, WarGonzo, MEDIUM).
- FRIENDLY LOGISTICS: The 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade successfully utilized UGVs (Ground Robotic Complexes/НРК) for critical front-line resupply, mitigating risk to personnel in high-attrition zones. (1519Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH).
- NUCLEAR COERCION: Rosatom (Likhachev) states intent to restart the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Concurrently, RF is disseminating disinformation regarding UAF "provocations" at Chornobyl (CNPP), likely as a pretext for escalation or to deflect from ZNPP activities. (1521Z, Операция Z; 1523Z, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM).
- REGIONAL LOGISTICS DISRUPTION: Russian Post has suspended all ground deliveries to Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Croatia, and Estonia, further severing remaining civilian/logistical links with the EU. (1531Z, ТАСС, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:
- Donbas (Central): The frontline remains fluid near Myrnohrad. The report of a strike in Kostiantynivka (if true) suggests RF is prioritizing the targeting of Command and Control (C2) nodes in the tactical-operational rear to disrupt the coordination of the Pokrovsk defense.
- Northern Border: Increased UAV activity in Chernihiv and rhetoric regarding Sumy (1532Z, Kotsnews) suggests RF is attempting to fix UAF border guards and territorial defense units in place, preventing their redeployment to the Donbas.
Weather and Environmental Factors:
- Moscow/Rear Areas: Continued blizzard conditions reported in Moscow (ref. Daily Report) are likely slowing the movement of Russian reinforcements and the newly formed "Unmanned Systems Regiment."
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities and Adaptations:
- Heavy Strike Drones: The introduction of the "Berdysh" drone signals a Russian attempt to mirror UAF success with "Baba Yaga" class heavy multi-rotors. These are capable of carrying larger payloads (likely TM-62 mines or multiple mortar rounds), posing a significant threat to UAF fortified positions and log-vehicles.
- Nuclear Blackmail: The dual-track messaging on ZNPP (restart) and CNPP (disinformation) suggests a coordinated hybrid operation. Restarting ZNPP under Russian control would be a major political win for Moscow and a massive safety risk for the region.
Logistics and Sustainment:
- Internal Friction: RF internal stability is strained by high-level corruption (Rostov Deputy Governor Okunev's 200m ruble embezzlement) and administrative failures in casualty identification (reports of parents receiving incorrect remains, 1510Z). This may lead to localized morale degradation among the families of mobilized personnel.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Tactical Posture:
- Kupyansk: UAF continues to hold tactical initiative following the Zapadne advance. RF sources (Rybar, 1526Z) are actively monitoring the sector, indicating RF command is concerned about further UAF encroachment on the Oskil River line.
- Resupply Innovation: The use of UGVs by the 110th Brigade (1519Z) demonstrates a high level of technical adaptation. These systems are critical for maintaining the "last mile" of logistics in sectors where RF FPV drone density makes manned resupply impossible.
Readiness and Constraints:
- Energy Infrastructure: Ukrainian officials have confirmed that power outages (schedules) remain in effect due to the cumulative impact of recent strikes. This indicates a continuing strain on the national grid's resilience during the winter peak (1532Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Disinformation Trends:
- Chornobyl Narrative: The RF claim of "UAF provocations" at the CNPP sarcophagus is a recycled narrative used to create international anxiety.
- Socio-Political Agitation: Russian channels (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 1506Z) are amplifying videos of alleged attacks on TCC (recruitment) officers to foster internal division within Ukraine.
- Zelensky Address: RF media is weaponizing President Zelensky's Christmas message ("Let him die") to portray Ukrainian leadership as non-diplomatic to Western audiences (1528Z, ASTRA).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
In the next 6-12 hours, RF will continue the UAV wave over Chernihiv to identify gaps in air defense. Simultaneously, expect a surge in "Berdysh" drone employment in the Pokrovsk/Kostiantynivka sectors to exploit the reported strike on C2 elements.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
A kinetic provocation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP or the Chornobyl exclusion zone, framed as a "Ukrainian attack," designed to force a halt in Western military aid under the guise of preventing a nuclear catastrophe.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
- (P1) Kostiantynivka Strike Verification: Urgent requirement for SIGINT/HUMINT to confirm the status of GUR/SBU personnel. If confirmed, assess the impact on the regional C2 structure.
- (P2) Berdysh Technical Specs: Task EW units to attempt signal capture/exploitation of "Berdysh" drone frequencies. Identify jam-resistance and payload capacity.
- (P3) ZNPP Status: Monitor Rosatom movement at ZNPP. Are there physical preparations (fuel movement, cooling system checks) consistent with a restart?
- (P4) Chernihiv UAV Vector: Track the northern UAV group. Is the final target Kyiv, or are they conducting ISR on border fortifications?
//REPORT ENDS//
