(1323Z, Два майора, MEDIUM): UNCONFIRMED/ADVERSARY ADMISSION: RF sources acknowledge a tactical reversal north of Kupyansk, reporting a UAF advance near the settlement of Zapadne.
(1305Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH): Massed RF shelling of a civilian market in central Kherson on Christmas morning; visual evidence confirms at least one civilian fatality.
(1335Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): Power grid stabilization reported in Western Ukraine, with official schedules showing no planned outages for the current period, despite critical generation losses elsewhere.
(1315Z, PS ZSU, HIGH): UAF Air Force confirms multiple launches of KAB (guided aerial bombs) targeting the Donetsk region, specifically impacting Kostiantynivka (1325Z).
(1310Z, ТАСС, MEDIUM): RF MFA (Zakharova) claims "slow but steady" progress in negotiations with the United States regarding the Ukrainian conflict.
(1322Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF 143rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (127th Division) destroyed a UAF BMP in Pryluky (Zaporizhzhia direction) using UAV-corrected fire.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kupyansk Sector (Northern Axis):
The operational tempo has shifted in favor of UAF. After previous reports of RF momentum stalling due to C2 failures, pro-RF sources now admit UAF has pushed north of Kupyansk toward Zapadne (1323Z, 1330Z).
Donetsk Sector (Eastern Axis):
High-intensity aerial bombardment continues. RF is utilizing KAB strikes against urban centers, including Kostiantynivka, to degrade UAF defensive nodes (1315Z, 1325Z).
Southern Sector (Kherson/Zaporizhzhia):
Kherson: RF continues terror-bombing of civilian infrastructure with no clear military objective, targeting central markets (1305Z, 1335Z).
Zaporizhzhia: Positional fighting remains lethal; RF is effectively integrating UAVs with organic motorized rifle assets (143rd MRR) to interdict UAF light armor near Pryluky (1322Z).
Rear / Energy Infrastructure:
A significant divergence in energy stability is emerging. While the national grid remains under pressure, the Western Ukraine cluster has temporarily stabilized, reporting zero outages (1335Z), likely due to lower holiday industrial demand or successful emergency repairs.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Aviation: Increased reliance on KABs indicates RF is avoiding high-threat AD zones while maintaining stand-off pressure on Donetsk-region logistics hubs like Kostiantynivka.
Strategic Signaling: The RF MFA's redefinition of "denazification" as the removal of "discriminatory laws" rather than the destruction of military units (1318Z) suggests the Kremlin is testing more palatable diplomatic language for Western audiences.
Internal Security: Hardening of the RF rear continues with the detention of regional activists in Tula (1325Z), following previous reports of high treason sentences.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Offensive Capability: UAF has successfully exploited RF C2 friction in the Kupyansk sector to regain tactical ground near Zapadne (1323Z).
Specialized Drone Ops: The "Roniny" drone unit reports successful interdiction of RF "Molniya" and "Privet-82" UAS assets, indicating an effective counter-UAS (C-UAS) program at the tactical level (1306Z).
Civil-Military Relations: Legal proceedings in Kupyansk regarding evacuation violations (1310Z) underscore the difficulty of managing civilian populations in active combat zones.
Information environment / disinformation
Negotiation Narrative: RF is pushing a dual-track narrative: claiming diplomatic progress with the US (1310Z) while maintaining high-intensity civilian targeting in Kherson (1305Z).
Social Friction: RF channels are amplifying reports of a TCC officer being assaulted in Ukraine (1317Z) to promote a narrative of failing mobilization and internal instability.
EU/US Energy Tensions: Russian propaganda (Rybar) continues to target European audiences, framing the shift to US LNG as a loss of "independence" (1306Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will likely intensify KAB strikes on the Kupyansk-Zapadne axis to halt the UAF counter-advance and mask their current C2 deficiencies.
MDCOA: A Christmas evening missile surge targeting the now-stabilized Western Ukrainian power grid to trigger a total systemic collapse during the holiday window.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(P1) Zapadne/Kupyansk BDA: Confirm the extent of UAF penetration north of Kupyansk. Determine if this is a localized tactical gain or a broader breach of RF lines.
(P2) Diplomatic Sincerity: Cross-reference RF MFA claims of "steady progress" with US State Department readouts to determine if this is a genuine shift or a domestic RF deception operation.
(P3) Western Energy Stability: Identify the specific factors (repairs, imports, or reduced load) allowing Western Ukraine to bypass outages; assess the sustainability of this status.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a notable UAF tactical success in the Kupyansk sector, contrasting with sustained RF aerial terror tactics against civilian populations in Kherson and Kostiantynivka. The holiday has not resulted in a reduction of kinetic activity; rather, RF has pivoted toward high-impact stand-off munitions (KABs).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Tactical Adaptation: RF is increasingly using "East" Grouping UAV operators (127th Division) to identify and destroy UAF armor (1322Z), suggesting improved sensor-to-shooter links in the southern sector.
C2 Weakness: Admitted complications in Kupyansk (1323Z) suggest the RF "stalling" reported yesterday has deteriorated into a tactical retreat in specific sub-sectors.
Narrative Shift: The shift in "denazification" rhetoric (1318Z) likely aims to decouple the war's "political" goals from its failing "military" goals in the eyes of international observers.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Kupyansk Momentum: UAF forces have seized the initiative near Zapadne, likely leveraging the previously identified RF command breakdowns.
Resilience: The "Roniny" unit success (1306Z) demonstrates that UAF tactical units are maintaining high levels of innovation in drone/counter-drone warfare despite logistics constraints.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Christmas Exploitation: Both sides are using the holiday for high-stakes messaging—UAF highlighting the "nehludy" (monsters) shelling Kherson, while RF channels focus on internal Ukrainian civilian-military friction (TCC incident).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Kupyansk Counter-Battery: Expect RF to surge 1st Guards Tank Army artillery assets to the Kupyansk sector in the next 6 hours to stabilize the Zapadne breach.
Energy Targeting: The improvement in Western Ukraine's grid status is likely being monitored by RF SIGINT; it may be prioritized for "Shahed" strikes tonight to negate the morale boost of restored power.
