(1245Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH): Visual evidence confirms a sustained, high-intensity fire at the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery (Rostov Oblast) following earlier Storm Shadow strikes; damage appears catastrophic and likely long-term.
(1251Z, TASS, LOW): UNCONFIRMED claim by RF sources that the capture of Svyato-Pokrovske has "opened the way" for an offensive toward Sloviansk.
(1241Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Imagery confirms the establishment of a pontoon ferry near the damaged bridge in Mayaki (Odesa Oblast), highlighting a critical vulnerability in the regional logistics corridor.
(1238Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Implementation of emergency power shutdowns in at least one Ukrainian oblast; follows the 50% generation loss reported in the previous 24h.
(1240Z, AV Bogomaz, MEDIUM): RF claims to have intercepted 37 UAF drones over Bryansk Oblast; indicates a large-scale, coordinated UAF UAS operation targeting the RF northern border regions.
(1255Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): NATO aircraft were scrambled to intercept RF strategic bombers near UK airspace, indicating increased RF strategic aviation posturing.
(1236Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Rostec claims Su-57 stealth fighters are successfully bypassing Ukrainian radar/EW in the "SVO zone"—likely propaganda but indicates active employment of 5th-gen assets.
Operational picture (by sector)
Eastern Axis (Siversk/Sloviansk/Myrnohrad):
Siversk/Sloviansk: RF is attempting to pivot from tactical gains in Svyato-Pokrovske to an operational-level push toward Sloviansk (1251Z).
Myrnohrad (Krasnoarmiysk): RF 110th Brigade is reportedly utilizing heavy rocket artillery to disrupt UAF movements (1302Z). This correlates with the "banzai" mechanized assaults noted in the 24h summary.
Southern Axis (Odesa/Zaporizhzhia):
Odesa Logistics: The use of a pontoon at Mayaki (1241Z) indicates the primary ground line of communication (GLOC) to the southwest is degraded, creating a potential bottleneck for maritime-related logistics.
RF Rear / Deep Strike:
Rostov: The Novoshakhtinsk fire continues (1245Z). This represents a successful multi-hour degradation of RF fuel production capability.
Bryansk: Large-scale UAS activity (37 units) suggests UAF is attempting to saturate RF PVO (Air Defense) in the north (1240Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Threat: RF is signaling the use of Su-57 aircraft (1236Z). While performance claims are likely inflated, their employment suggests RF is testing low-observable profiles against Western-integrated AD.
Strategic Posturing: The bomber flight near the UK (1255Z) is a classic "out-of-area" provocation designed to distract NATO partners during the Christmas holiday.
Logistics Interdiction: RF focus remains on disrupting UAF's ability to move reserves toward Myrnohrad and Krasnoarmiysk (1302Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Operational Resilience: Despite heavy pressure and holiday timing, UAF Air Assault (DShV) and Marine units maintain active defensive operations (1304Z, 1247Z).
Asymmetric Deep Strike: UAF continues to prioritize the RF energy sector (Novoshakhtinsk) and border-region PVO saturation (37 drones over Bryansk).
Information environment / disinformation
Internal RF Militarization: Reports of "militarized Christmas ornaments" in Moscow (1250Z) and 15-year sentences for activists (1256Z) indicate the Kremlin is hardening the domestic environment for a long-war posture.
Technological Narrative: Putin’s emphasis on a "10-15 year AI transformation" (1249Z) is intended to signal long-term industrial stability despite sanctions.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will likely continue high-volume artillery and FPV strikes in the Myrnohrad sector to prevent UAF from stabilizing the line before the approaching blizzard (noted in previous sitrep).
MDCOA: A saturation missile strike targeting the Odesa pontoon/logistics hub to further isolate Ukrainian maritime export routes while the regional energy grid is under "emergency shutdown" status.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(P1) Sloviansk Axis: Verify the status of Svyato-Pokrovske. If captured, determine the size of the RF maneuver element pushing toward Sloviansk.
(P2) BDA Bryansk: Identify the intended targets of the 37-drone wave. Success in this sector would indicate a thinning of RF northern PVO.
(P3) Su-57 Verification: Monitor ELINT/SIGINT for Su-57 specific signatures to determine if Rostec's claims reflect actual combat sorties or mere posturing.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The conflict has entered a phase of high-intensity attrition coinciding with the Christmas holiday. UAF has successfully maintained a fire at a major RF refinery (Novoshakhtinsk), while RF is attempting to exploit localized tactical successes in the Siversk sector to threaten Sloviansk. Significant weather degradation (blizzard) remains the primary environmental constraint for the next 12 hours.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Tactical Shift: The focus on the Svyato-Pokrovske-Sloviansk axis (1251Z) indicates an attempt to broaden the front and force UAF to pull reserves away from the Myrnohrad "banzai" assaults.
Technology: Claims regarding Su-57 performance (1236Z) suggest RF is looking for a technological "offset" to counter the increasing efficacy of UAF's Western-supplied long-range assets.
Domestic Control: The 15-year sentence for a Moscow zooprotection activist on "treason" charges (1256Z) signals zero tolerance for internal dissent or suspected partisan links.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Morale: UAF maintains high combat discipline despite the holiday, with Marines and Air Assault units conducting symbolic and kinetic operations (1247Z, 1304Z).
Infrastructure: The reliance on a pontoon at Mayaki (1241Z) is a tactical workaround that requires immediate AD protection, as it is a high-value, static target.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Russian Internal Propaganda: The Kremlin is increasingly merging holiday traditions with military themes (1250Z) to normalize the state of perpetual war.
Diplomatic Outlets: The announcement of visa-free travel to India (1240Z) is being used to project a "normalcy" and "pivot to the East" narrative to the Russian public.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Next 6 Hours: Expect a surge in RF long-range rocket artillery (1302Z) against UAF rear areas in Donetsk to disrupt rotation cycles.
Energy Crisis: With "emergency blackouts" now active (1238Z), UAF C2 must transition to redundant power systems. RF will likely time the next wave of Shahed strikes to coincide with the lowest point of grid frequency.
