(1210Z, Оперативний ЗСУ/1213Z, ASTRA, HIGH): UAF General Staff officially confirmed the successful strike on the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Products Plant (Rostov Oblast, RF) utilizing Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles.
(1224Z/1229Z, Operatsiya Z/Voenkor Kotenok, MEDIUM): RF forces conducted a missile strike targeting port infrastructure in Chernomorsk (Odesa Oblast), reportedly "paralyzing" the maritime hub; imagery confirms damage to port assets.
(1228Z, Dva Mayora/Arkhangel Spetsnaza, MEDIUM): Reports indicate UAF is conducting counterattacks near Huliaipole (Zaporizhzhia sector) to stabilize the front against the RF "Vostok" grouping.
(1228Z, Slivochny Kapriz, MEDIUM): Increased kinetic activity and localized RF advances reported south/east of Dronovka (Siversk axis).
(1224Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Official weather warning issued for blizzards and deteriorating conditions across Ukraine, likely to impact drone operations and logistics in the next 24-48 hours.
(1207Z/1215Z, ASTRA/RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Casualties from the RF strike on a residential building in Chernihiv confirmed: 1 dead, 5 wounded, with significant structural damage to one floor.
(1229Z, TASS, LOW): RF MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed Ukraine plans to issue 2 million summonses in early 2026; assessed as disinformation/information operation to incite domestic unrest.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Sumy): Urban terror strikes continue. The 1207Z strike on a residential high-rise in Chernihiv demonstrates a persistent RF focus on civilian attrition over military objectives in this sector.
Eastern Axis (Siversk/Kupyansk/Pokrovsk):
Siversk: RF is attempting to exploit the Dronovka axis (1228Z).
Kupyansk: Analytic reports (1215Z) suggest the "key problem" for RF remains systemic C2 or logistical failures outside the immediate tactical zone.
Donetsk: RF "Center" group claims destruction of a UAF Zuzana 155mm SPG near Shevchenko (1221Z), indicating continued high-intensity counter-battery fire.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Huliaipole: Transition from static defense to active counter-maneuver by UAF elements to disrupt RF "Vostok" offensive preparations (1228Z).
Kherson: Persistent RF ISR presence noted with a reconnaissance UAV loitering over the region (1228Z).
Odesa/Black Sea: The strike on Chernomorsk (1224Z) indicates a renewed RF effort to degrade the "grain corridor" and maritime logistics following the UAF's successful deep strikes in the Rostov/Krasnodar regions.
RF Rear (Deep Strike): Official confirmation of Storm Shadow use at Novoshakhtinsk (1210Z) validates UAF's capability to suppress RF PVO (Air Defense) in highly sensitive industrial zones.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Maritime Interdiction: The focus on Chernomorsk suggests RF is prioritizing the disruption of maritime logistics to offset their own losses at Port Temryuk.
Domestic Control: RF is tightening information security; journalists are now prohibited from filming drone strikes or attending specific administrative functions (1233Z), likely to mask the effectiveness of UAF's deep strike campaign.
Air Threat: Ongoing Shahed/UAV threats identified in the Kamyanske district (Dnipropetrovsk) as of 1219Z.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Maneuver: The confirmed use of Storm Shadows against the Novoshakhtinsk refinery (1210Z) is a deliberate effort to create a fuel vacuum for RF forces in the Donbas before the peak of winter.
Tactical Initiative: UAF counterattacks in Huliaipole (1228Z) demonstrate operational flexibility and the presence of localized reserves capable of spoiling attacks.
Cultural/Morale: Continued focus on domestic morale with events like the "Spas" President's Cup in Zaporizhzhia (1235Z) despite the proximity to the front.
Information environment / disinformation
Mobilization Narrative: Zakharova's (RF MFA) claim of "2 million summonses" (1229Z) is a high-level psychological operation designed to undermine Ukrainian social cohesion during the Christmas period.
Propaganda: RF sources (Colonelcassad, 1221Z) are highlighting Western equipment losses (Zuzana SPG) to counter the narrative of UAF strategic success with Storm Shadows.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will likely increase UAV and missile pressure on Odesa and surrounding port infrastructure in retaliation for the Novoshakhtinsk strike.
MDCOA: A coordinated strike on the energy grid during the approaching blizzard (1224Z) to maximize humanitarian distress and trigger a total grid collapse in Northern/Central Ukraine.
Environmental: Rapidly deteriorating weather will likely ground low-altitude ISR and FPV drones by 1800Z, favoring tracked mechanized movements over light infantry infiltration.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
BDA Chernomorsk: (P1) Urgent requirement for satellite imagery of Chernomorsk port to determine if the "paralysis" claim (1224Z) refers to berth damage, crane destruction, or blocked channels.
Huliaipole Force Composition: (P2) Identify if the UAF counterattack (1228Z) involves newly committed reserves or existing brigade elements.
Novoshakhtinsk Refinement: (P3) Confirm if the Storm Shadow strike hit the primary distillation columns or merely storage tanks. Distillation damage would result in long-term (3-6 months) outages.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a "strike-counterstrike" cycle in the deep rear. UAF has successfully degraded a primary RF fuel node (Novoshakhtinsk), while RF has responded by targeting Ukrainian maritime export capacity (Chernomorsk). On the tactical level, the front remains fluid with UAF seizing initiative in the Zaporizhzhia sector (Huliaipole) while facing pressure in Siversk.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Logistics: The loss of Novoshakhtinsk capacity will force the RF "South" grouping to rely on longer supply lines from the Voronezh or central RF regions.
Operations: RF is increasingly reliant on "retaliatory" strikes against civilian and economic targets (Chernihiv, Odesa) rather than achieving breakthrough maneuvers on the Kupyansk or Pokrovsk axes.
Information: New media restrictions in RF (1233Z) suggest the MoD is struggling to control the narrative regarding the vulnerability of the Russian "Deep Rear."
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Strike Capability: UAF has demonstrated a sustained ability to employ Storm Shadow assets effectively against hardened industrial targets.
Resilience: Despite energy and infrastructure strikes, UAF maintains the capability for localized counter-offensives in the South (Huliaipole).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Disinformation: The "2 million summonses" narrative (1229Z) should be countered by official MoD channels to prevent panic among the civilian population.
Weather Effects: The incoming blizzard (1224Z) presents a strategic communication opportunity to highlight RF "winter terror" tactics against the civilian energy grid.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Weather Impact: The 1224Z weather alert is a critical variable. Expect a significant drop in FPV/drone-directed artillery precision. Heavy mechanized units may attempt localized breakthroughs while thermal/visual ISR is degraded by snow.
Retaliation Vector: RF long-range aviation (Tu-95MS noted in previous report) remains the primary threat for a late-evening strike on Odesa or Kyiv.
