(1200Z, General Staff UAF/RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): UAF General Staff officially confirmed a missile strike on the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Products Plant (Rostov Oblast, RF) utilizing Storm Shadow cruise missiles.
(1149Z/1158Z, General Staff UAF/RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Coordinated long-range strikes successfully hit Port "Temryuk" (Krasnodar Krai), the "Maykop" Airfield (Adygea), and an RF military repair unit.
(1149Z/1156Z, Kherson OVA/ASTRA, HIGH): RF forces conducted a "massive" artillery strike on a central market in Kherson during Christmas festivities; at least 1 civilian killed.
(1150Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Updated casualties in Chernihiv following the residential strike: 1 dead, 5 wounded.
(1154Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM): RF forces ("O" Group) claim to be conducting "clearing operations" in Rodinske (Donetsk Oblast), suggesting a tactical advance near the Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad axis.
(1136Z/1147Z, Peskov/TASS, HIGH): Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov issued a sharp rhetorical attack on President Zelenskyy's Christmas address, labeling him "inadequate" and questioning his capacity for diplomatic settlement.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Sumy): RF kinetic pressure remains high. Casualties from the 1114Z strike are now confirmed. Kinetic activity is currently focused on urban terrorizing rather than maneuver.
Eastern Axis (Kupyansk/Pokrovsk):
Kupyansk: Multiple RF sources (1143Z, 1148Z) issued vague "warnings" regarding this sector, likely indicating the start of a localized push or heavy preparatory shelling.
Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad: RF claiming progress in Rodinske (1154Z). Urban ruin in Bilytske (1152Z) confirms the high intensity of RF "scorched earth" tactics in this sector.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Kherson: Critical strike on civilian market (1149Z).
Zaporizhzhia: RF strike on industrial infrastructure damaged transport assets but caused no casualties (1155Z).
RF Rear (Deep Strike): UAF has launched its most significant coordinated deep-strike package of the month, hitting four distinct high-value targets (Novoshakhtinsk, Temryuk, Maykop, and an undisclosed repair unit). This represents a major multi-domain effort to degrade RF fuel and aviation logistics.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Strategic Signaling: RF MoD reported Tu-95MS strategic bombers conducting "planned flights" over the Barents and Norwegian Seas (1141Z). This is assessed as traditional nuclear-triad posturing aimed at Western audiences during the holiday.
Tactical UAV Ops: RF 14th Spetsnaz Brigade (Group "V") confirmed successful FPV/drone strikes on a UAF tank and two pickups in the 36th Army AO (1200Z), demonstrating continued proficiency in small-unit drone attrition.
Logistics Status: The confirmation of Storm Shadow usage against the Novoshakhtinsk refinery (1200Z) will likely trigger immediate fuel rationing for the RF "South" grouping of forces if the distillation units were hit.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Multi-Domain Counter-Offensive: The simultaneous targeting of an airfield (Maykop) and a port (Temryuk) suggests an attempt to disrupt the RF "bridge" to Crimea and the air-cover capacity for the Southern Front.
Counter-ISR Success: The downing of the "Knyaz Veshchy Oleg" UAV (1202Z) is a significant technical win; this asset is part of Russia's newer, more resilient reconnaissance fleet.
Legal/Diplomatic: Office of the General Prosecutor successfully prosecuted two RF servicemen for war crimes in Mykolaiv (1200Z), maintaining the "accountability" narrative for the international community.
Information environment / disinformation
Narrative Shift: The Kremlin (via Peskov, 1136Z) is moving to completely delegitimize Zelenskyy as a "rational actor." This is likely a precursor to officially withdrawing any previously signaled "peace" feelers and justifies the rejection of the 20-point plan.
Economic Narratives: Pro-Russian channels (Colonelcassad, 1142Z) are claiming Ukraine is "desperate" for fuel and relying on India, attempting to frame UAF's energy strikes on RF as a "reaction of the weak."
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued RF artillery and drone strikes on civilian infrastructure in Kherson and Chernihiv as "retribution" for the Maykop/Novoshakhtinsk strikes.
MDCOA: RF may launch a limited cruise missile volley from the Tu-95MS assets currently in the air to strike UAF airfields associated with Storm Shadow launches (e.g., Starokostiantyniv).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
BDA Maykop & Temryuk: (P1) Urgent satellite or humint confirmation of damage to the runway/hangars at Maykop and fuel/loading infrastructure at Port Temryuk.
Kupyansk Intentions: (P2) Identify the nature of the "warnings" issued by Alex Parker/Kotsnews. Is this a new mechanized push or the introduction of a new weapon system?
Novoshakhtinsk Impact: (P3) Monitor RF fuel transport rail lines heading toward the Donbas. Any significant pause will confirm the Storm Shadow strike hit the critical refinery infrastructure.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has escalated sharply in the last 60 minutes. UAF has shifted from tactical defense to a concentrated strategic strike campaign targeting the RF logistical "tripod" (Fuel, Air, Sea) in the Russian south. Concurrently, RF has reverted to high-casualty terror strikes against civilian markets (Kherson).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Aviation: Tu-95MS activity (1141Z) suggests Russia is maintaining its long-range aviation readiness, potentially for a massed "Christmas" evening strike.
Tactical: The 14th Spetsnaz remains highly effective at FPV-based attrition (1200Z).
Psychological: The Kremlin's dehumanization of Ukrainian leadership (1136Z) indicates a closing of the diplomatic window.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Strategic Assets: Confirmation of Storm Shadow usage (1200Z) marks a significant policy and operational escalation, demonstrating UAF’s ability to penetrate RF air defense in the Rostov/Krasnodar corridors.
Technological: The "General Chereshnya" drone intercept (1202Z) provides further evidence of UAF's leading edge in the "war of drones."
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Propaganda: RF is leveraging the death of Vera Alentova (1152Z) and "Unity" themes while simultaneously conducting student raids (1205Z) to maintain domestic control.
Interstate Logistics: Reports of Indian fuel support (1142Z) for Ukraine highlight the complex geopolitical balancing of the global energy market.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Decision Point: The UAF strike on Maykop Airfield (1149Z) may force RF to relocate its Su-34/Su-35 assets further inland, potentially reducing the frequency of KAB (glide bomb) strikes on the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson fronts in the next 24-48 hours.
