(0919Z, TASS, HIGH): Significant kinetic strike via OWA-UAV on the Port of Temryuk (RF); fire has expanded to 4,000 square meters.
(0918Z/0924Z, Colonelcassad/Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM): RF "Southern" grouping claims the capture of Sviato-Pokrovske (Donetsk Oblast); corroborated by multiple pro-RF sources with map data. (UNCONFIRMED by UAF).
(0917Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): HUR Chief Kyrylo Budanov conducted a surprise visit to special forces units on the Zaporizhzhia front sector.
(0930Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): New wave of OWA-UAVs (Shahed) detected transiting from the Black Sea toward Southern Odesa Oblast.
(0934Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM): UAF strike reported on the "Vinohradove" transformer substation in occupied Kherson Oblast, causing localized power disruptions.
(0909Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): RF tactical aviation launched multiple KAB (guided bombs) strikes against targets in Sumy Oblast.
(0934Z, Dva Majora, LOW): RF "Northern Wind" units claim to have repelled a UAF counterattack near Miropillya (Sumy Oblast).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has intensified during the Christmas holiday morning. RF forces are capitalizing on tactical gains in the Donbas while UAF has successfully extended its deep-strike reach into Russian maritime logistics (Temryuk).
Battlefield Geometry: The loss of Sviato-Pokrovske (if confirmed) represents a further erosion of the defensive buffer around the Siversk salient. Concurrently, the frontline in Sumy remains highly volatile with reciprocal strikes (KABs vs. UAF counterattacks).
Infrastructure War: The conflict has shifted toward a symmetric "tit-for-tat" on energy nodes. While RF targets the national grid, UAF is now actively interdicting substations in occupied territories (Vinohradove) and fuel hubs in the Russian near-abroad (Temryuk).
Weather: Overcast conditions and sea-state favor OWA-UAV transits from the Black Sea, complicating visual detection for mobile fire groups in Odesa.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Logistics Degradation: The strike on the Port of Temryuk is a significant blow to RF Azov Sea logistics. A 4,000 sqm fire suggests a hit on a fuel oil terminal or major warehouse, likely disrupting the resupply of the "Dnieper" and "Vostok" groupings.
Tactical Shifts: RF is maintaining high pressure in the East, utilizing the "Southern" grouping's momentum to seize Sviato-Pokrovske. The use of UMPK/KAB kits (confirmed by Fighterbomber, 0916Z) remains the primary RF tool for breaking UAF defensive lines.
Internal Security: The FSB's publicized seizure of explosives in Kaluga (0926Z) suggests continued high-alert status in the RF interior, possibly linked to the Moscow security closures noted in the previous sitrep.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Strategic Presence: The unannounced visit of Kyrylo Budanov (HUR) to the Zaporizhzhia front indicates a potential for upcoming Ukrainian special operations or a high-level assessment of RF vulnerabilities in the South.
Offensive Capabilities: UAF continues to demonstrate a high-precision strike capability against Russian rear-area infrastructure, successfully penetrating AD umbrellas in the Krasnodar Krai (Temryuk) and Kherson.
Defensive Posture: UAF mobile fire groups are currently engaged with a two-pronged UAV threat: one from the North (Chernihiv, 0900Z) and a new wave from the Black Sea (0930Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
RF Influence Ops: Pro-RF channels (Alex Parker Returns, 0914Z) are aggressively pushing a "Hunter Biden/Burisma" narrative, using derogatory framing of Ukraine as a "hotbed of evil" to target Western/U.S. audiences during the holiday window.
Morale/Festive Messaging: Both the UAF Air Force and the Coordination Staff for PWs released official Christmas greetings (0906Z, 0920Z). These messages strategically blend festive themes with images of Western military aid (Patriot/Fighter jets) to bolster domestic morale.
Historical Revisionism: UA state media (RBK-UA) is counter-messaging by highlighting 2001 transcripts where Putin denied Ukrainian sovereignty, framing the current conflict as a long-term Russian imperial project.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the UAV/KAB pressure on Sumy and Odesa to fix UAF air defense assets. In Donetsk, RF will attempt to consolidate Sviato-Pokrovske and push toward the outskirts of Siversk.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massed missile strike on the Christmas afternoon (1200Z-1800Z) utilizing the current UAV waves to map and deplete UAF AD interceptors, specifically targeting the Odesa port infrastructure or the remaining Dnieper bridges.
Timeline:
0-3h: Impact/Arrival of UAVs in Southern Odesa.
3-6h: Continued BDA from Temryuk; potential retaliatory RF strikes on UAF C2 centers in response to the Budanov visit.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Sviato-Pokrovske Status: (P1) Require urgent commercial imagery or drone reconnaissance to confirm RF presence in central Sviato-Pokrovske.
Temryuk Damage Assessment: (P1) Identify the specific commodity destroyed (Fuel, Ammunition, or Grain) at the Temryuk port to determine the impact on RF Southern logistics.
Vinohradove Outage Scale: (P2) Assess the extent of the power outage in occupied Kherson; will this impact RF electronic warfare (EW) or C2 nodes in the sector?
Actionable Recommendations
AD Alert (South): (URGENT) Re-task naval and coastal AD units to intercept the 0930Z UAV wave originating from the Black Sea.
Operational Security (Zaporizhzhia): (PRIORITY) Implement immediate radio silence and movement restrictions in the sector of Budanov’s visit to mitigate the risk of RF "decapitation" strikes.
Logistical Exploitation: (TACTICAL) Capitalize on the Temryuk port fire by launching localized probes on the Zaporizhzhia/Kherson fronts, as RF logistics may be temporarily diverted or disorganized.
