(0843Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM): Kinetic strike confirmed on a bridge in Mayaky, Odesa Oblast, targeting critical ground lines of communication (GLOCs) near the Moldovan border.
(0903Z, TASS/MoD RF, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): RF forces claim the capture of Sviato-Pokrovske in the Donetsk sector.
(0841Z, Tsapliienko/UAF, HIGH): UAF successfully repelled a Russian infiltration attempt into Vil’cha (Vovchansk community, Kharkiv Oblast).
(0845Z/0852Z, TASS/ASTRA, MEDIUM): FSB reports "neutralizing" a Zaporizhzhia native in Kaluga Oblast (RF), allegedly preventing a "terrorist attack" on a federal gas storage facility.
(0900Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): OWA-UAV (Shahed) detected over Chernihiv Oblast (Snovsk) transiting south toward central Ukraine.
(0836Z, Moscow News, MEDIUM): Significant road closures and traffic disruptions reported in Central Moscow; cause remains unspecified but suggests high-level security posture.
(0901Z, Southern Defense Forces, HIGH): UAF reports significant attrition of RF assets in the South over 24h: 288 personnel, 25 artillery systems, and 20 UAV control antennas destroyed.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational tempo remains high as RF forces pivot from saturation UAV strikes to targeted infrastructure interdiction, specifically aiming to isolate the Odesa region.
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline is active across multiple axes. In the South, RF has expanded its target list to include tactical bridges (Mayaky), likely to disrupt UAF logistics and civilian movement. In the Northeast, the repulsion of RF forces at Vil’cha indicates persistent pressure on the Vovchansk salient.
Infrastructure Status: Following the previous report's energy grid degradation, the strike on the Mayaky bridge indicates a transition to a "siege-like" isolation of Odesa.
Weather: Current conditions facilitate OWA-UAV transits from the North (Chernihiv) toward central hubs.
Operational Intent: RF appears to be executing a dual-track strategy: maintaining attrition-based ground assaults in Donetsk (Sviato-Pokrovske) while utilizing high-precision strikes to sever rear-area logistics in the South.
Tactical Changes: The use of 143rd Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment (127th Division) UAV operators in Pryluki (Vremevsk direction) confirms a high density of tactical drone assets being used to interdict UAF armor (0900Z).
Internal Security (RF): The FSB's lethal action in Kaluga and the massive Moscow closures (0836Z) suggest a heightened state of domestic paranoia or response to the "partisan" activity noted in the 24 Dec daily report.
C2 Effectiveness: RF "Vostok" grouping (5th Army) remains highly active in the Vremevsk sector, demonstrating coordinated UAV-to-artillery targeting loops.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking - IPB Step 3)
Defensive Success: The successful ejection of RF forces from Vil’cha (Kharkiv) demonstrates high readiness levels of the Vovchansk border screening elements.
Attrition Operations: UAF Southern Defense Forces continue to achieve high-value kills on RF "electronic warfare and ISR" assets (20 UAV antennas, 1 "Repeynik" radar), which is critical for blinding RF tactical units.
Ordnance Issues: Reports of unexploded HIMARS components in the Belgorod direction (0854Z) may indicate RF attempts to exploit technical failures for propaganda or reverse-engineering.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain - IPB Step 4)
RF Narrative Control: State media is heavily promoting the "FSB success" in Kaluga to project domestic security. Simultaneously, pro-RF channels are mocking UAF mobilization (Archangel Spetsnaz, 0903Z).
UA Resilience Narratives: UAF is counter-messaging with human-interest stories (9-year-old Odesa gymnast) and historical parallels to European support (0852Z) to maintain high domestic morale.
Diplomatic Static: Reports regarding the Vatican's inability to host peace talks (0846Z) align with the previous report's assessment of "diplomatic hardening."
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue the UAV transit from Chernihiv (Snovsk) toward Kyiv or Poltava within the next 3–6 hours. Expect continued tactical pressure in the Vovchansk sector to fix UAF reserves.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated strike on the remaining bridges across the Dniester Estuary and Southern Bug to completely isolate Odesa from Western supply routes, timed with further energy grid destabilization.
Timeline:
0-6h: UAV arrivals in Central Ukraine; BDA of the Mayaky bridge strike.
6-12h: Potential escalation in the Sumy (Kondratovka) sector following "urgent" reports of activity.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Moscow Closure Rationale: (P1) Determine if the Central Moscow closures are related to a specific threat, high-level C2 movement, or internal unrest following the police killings on 24 Dec.
Sviato-Pokrovske Confirmation: (P2) Verify the control status of Sviato-Pokrovske via independent imagery or UAF ground reporting.
Mayaky Bridge BDA: (P1) Assess the structural integrity of the bridge in Mayaky. Is it impassable for heavy armor/logistics?
Actionable Recommendations
GLOC Redundancy: (URGENT) Identify and prepare alternative logistics routes for Odesa-bound cargo to bypass the Mayaky bridge.
Counter-UAV Deployment: (PRIORITY) Relocate mobile fire groups to the Snovsk-South corridor to intercept the OWA-UAV wave currently in transit.
Vovchansk Fortification: (TACTICAL) Strengthen screening forces in Vil’cha; the infiltration attempt suggests RF is testing for a "soft" entry point to bypass main defensive lines.
