(0833Z, ASTRA/UAF Air Force, HIGH): Mass OWA-UAV attack overnight; RF launched 131 drones across Ukraine.
(0817Z, 0826Z, Tsapliienko/Ukrenergo, HIGH): Kinetic strikes on Odesa port and industrial infrastructure; 1 KIA, 2 WIA. Significant emergency blackouts reported across Odesa Oblast.
(0831Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): RF armor (T-72B3M, 34th Brigade) conducted suppression fire in Kharkiv sector to support "intensive offensive" ground assaults.
(0821Z, 0832Z, ASTRA/WarGonzo, HIGH): Confirmed strike on Dagestani humanitarian convoy in Belgorod border region; 3 KIA, including the Deputy Head of a Dagestani district.
(0815Z, Operativnyi ZSU, MEDIUM): RF coal industry reports massive financial decline; losses reached 327.9bn rubles (Jan-Oct 2025) vs 84.8bn last year.
(0810Z, 0825Z, RBK-UA/ASTRA, HIGH): Fatal border skirmish reported between Tajikistan and Afghanistan; 2 Tajik officers killed.
(0822Z, Voenkor Kotenok, MEDIUM): North Korea (DPRK) unveiled a new submarine during a Kim Jong Un inspection (UNCONFIRMED/Contextual).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment has escalated significantly over the last 6 hours due to a massive saturation strike utilizing OWA-UAVs, specifically targeting the Southern maritime and energy hubs.
Battlefield Geometry: The focus of RF ground operations is intensifying in the Kharkiv sector, where combined arms (armor/infantry) are attempting to widen local breaches. In the South, the battlefield has extended deep into the rear through successful strikes on Odesa’s energy and port infrastructure.
Infrastructure Status: Critical degradation of the Odesa regional grid. Emergency blackouts are now the baseline condition for the oblast, hindering both civilian life and potential logistics/industrial throughput.
Regional Instability: The Tajikistan-Afghanistan border clash introduces a potential second-front distraction for RF-aligned CSTO interests, though it remains a localized kinetic event for now.
Aviation & UAVs: The transition from localized "groups" of UAVs (0805Z Sitrep) to a massive coordinated launch of 131 units indicates a deliberate attempt to saturate and deplete UAF Air Defense (AD) magazines during the holiday period.
Tactical Adaptation: In the Kharkiv sector, the 34th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade is utilizing T-72B3M tanks as mobile artillery to suppress strongholds. This suggests a shift toward high-intensity "assault group" tactics supported by direct-fire armor rather than just KAB stand-off strikes.
Sustainment & Logistics: The RF coal sector's nearly 300% increase in losses indicates severe long-term economic strain. However, the immediate tactical supply chain remains lethal, as evidenced by the volume of munitions expended overnight.
C2 & Intent: Sergey Lavrov’s comments regarding "final borders" on a globe (0827Z) signal a hardening of maximalist war aims, mirroring the rejection of the 20-point peace plan noted in the daily report.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking - IPB Step 3)
Operational Posture: UAF AD units successfully intercepted a portion of the 131 UAVs, but the successful hits in Odesa suggest a saturation point was reached.
Resource Requirements: There is a growing public/private push for "interceptor drones" (Sternenko, 0808Z) to augment traditional AD, specifically in the Odesa region.
Strategic Communications: President Zelenskyy’s Christmas message (0822Z) utilized unusually blunt language ("May he die"), reflecting a pivot toward high-emotion mobilization of the domestic population against the RF leadership.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain - IPB Step 4)
RF Normalization: The promotion of "Winter Towns" in Moscow (0808Z) and concert films by pro-SVO musicians (WarGonzo, 0802Z) are coordinated efforts to maintain domestic "business as usual" while the front escalates.
External Support Narratives: RF channels are amplifying Viktor Orbán’s (Hungary) criticisms of Western "pragmatism" to sow division within the EU/NATO support bloc.
Psychological Operations: Lavrov’s "Tree of Wishes" appearance (0827Z) attempts to humanize RF leadership while simultaneously issuing threats regarding Ukrainian territorial integrity.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain high-pressure ground assaults in the Kharkiv sector to exploit recent armor-led suppression. Expect a follow-up wave of UAVs or missiles within 24 hours targeting Odesa to prevent grid repair and solidify the "islanding" of the regional power system.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated multi-axis offensive in Kharkiv and Myrnohrad, timed with a total Odesa grid collapse, aimed at forcing a localized UAF retreat due to lack of rear-area support and communication.
Timeline:
Next 6h: Assessment of Odesa BDA; urgent grid stabilization efforts.
Next 12h: Potential for a secondary strike on Central Ukraine (Kyiv/Poltava) while AD is focused on the South.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Odesa BDA: (P1) Precise identification of the "industrial infrastructure" hit. Determine if grain export capability or Western military aid transit nodes were compromised.
Kharkiv Armor Density: (P1) Identify the concentration of T-72B3Ms in the 34th Brigade's AO. Determine if this is a localized push or a sector-wide shift to armored-led assaults.
DPRK-RF Tech Transfer: (P3) Monitor for any correlation between the new DPRK submarine unveiling and RF naval technology signatures.
Actionable Recommendations
Grid Resilience (IMMEDIATE): Deploy mobile power generation assets to Odesa port facilities to maintain essential operations during emergency blackouts.
AD Rebalancing: (URGENT) Evaluate the redistribution of SHORAD (Short-Range Air Defense) to the Odesa industrial zone to counter low-altitude OWA-UAV saturation that bypassed the current screen.
Anti-Armor Priority: (PRIORITY) Accelerate the delivery of FPV-strike assets and ATGMs to the Kharkiv sector to counter the renewed use of RF T-72B3M tanks in direct-fire roles.
