(0559Z, Kotsnews, HIGH): RF forces are utilizing the "Glaz/Groza" system for real-time digital target acquisition, linking UAVs directly to Heavy Flamethrower Systems (TOS) to strike UAF strongpoints.
(0559Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Armed clash reported on the Tajik-Afghan border with fatalities; potential for regional instability requiring CSTO/RF attention.
(0544Z, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): UAF General Staff reports 860 RF personnel liquidated in the last 24-hour cycle, maintaining high attrition rates.
(0543Z, TASS, HIGH): Legislative proposal in RF to seize assets of former "Rusnano" executives (Chubais) to fund the "Special Military Operation" (SMO).
(0602Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Continued deployment of specialized FPV drone teams in the Krasnohorivka/Avdiivka sectors, emphasizing the professionalization of "Unmanned Forces."
(0539Z, Khabarovsk Police, MEDIUM): Arrest made in Khabarovsk Krai for the desecration of an "SMO" grave, indicating persistent domestic friction/anti-war sentiment in the RF Far East.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational tempo remains high as both sides navigate the Christmas holiday window. While large-scale movement is not reported in the last 30 minutes, the technical integration of the "sensor-to-shooter" loop is accelerating.
Battlefield Geometry: Frontlines remain static but lethal. The use of digital C2 systems (Glaz/Groza) indicates an RF focus on increasing the precision of indirect fire assets (TOS-1A/2) against entrenched UAF positions.
External Factors: An armed clash on the Tajik-Afghan border introduces a potential secondary security priority for the RF/FSB Border Service, which could divert attention or limited specialized assets from the Ukrainian theater if the situation escalates.
Weather: Winter conditions persist across all sectors, favoring drone-based reconnaissance over traditional ground-based scouting.
Tactical Adaptation: The integration of the "Glaz/Groza" system (0559Z) represents a significant refinement of RF tactical C2. By using digital channels to pass UAV coordinates directly to TOS crews, the RF is attempting to minimize the engagement window, making UAF defensive positions more vulnerable to high-intensity thermobaric strikes.
Logistics & Finance: The political movement to seize "Rusnano" assets (0543Z) suggests the RF is seeking non-traditional funding streams to sustain high military expenditures as 2026 approaches. This indicates a long-term commitment to a war of attrition.
Internal Security: Desecration of military graves in Khabarovsk (0539Z) highlights a breakdown in the "patriotic consensus" in remote RF regions. While tactical impact is negligible, it necessitates the continued diversion of Rosgvardia and police resources for internal stability.
Out-of-Theater Threat: The Tajik-Afghan border clash (0559Z) is a CRITICAL MONITOR item. Significant escalation there could force the RF to reallocate air defense or Spetsnaz units currently deployed in Ukraine to fulfill CSTO obligations.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking - IPB Step 3)
Attrition Maintenance: UAF continues to execute a successful defensive-attrition strategy, accounting for 860 RF casualties (0544Z). This suggests that despite RF technical adaptations, UAF defensive lines remain resilient.
Morale & Strategic Communications: The Command of the Air Assault Forces (DShV) and President Zelenskyy have utilized Christmas messaging to reinforce national unity and the existential nature of the defense (0603Z).
Information Operations: UAF continues to successfully highlight RF losses, maintaining a high level of transparency regarding the human cost to the invader.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain - IPB Step 4)
RF Propaganda: Focus has shifted to humanizing the war through "Heroes of the SMO" profiles (0602Z) and documenting charitable aid in occupied Donetsk (0601Z) to coincide with the holiday season.
UA Strategic Messaging: President Zelenskyy’s address (0603Z) took a hardline stance, emphasizing that peace is tied to the removal of the current RF leadership. This signals no intent to return to the "20-point peace plan" previously rejected by the RF.
Hybrid Indicators: The mention of "radioactive toys" in previous reports, combined with current property disputes and celebrity deaths in RF media, suggests a "noise" campaign to distract the RF public from high casualty figures (860/day).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify the use of TOS-1A and precision artillery in the Myrnohrad and Avdiivka sectors, leveraging the "Glaz/Groza" digital links to exploit UAF defensive rotations during the holiday.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated "Christmas strike" involving a saturation of OWA-UAVs (targeting Odesa/Tatarbunary) and a surge in TOS-led assaults in the Donbas, timed with a potential escalation on the Tajik-Afghan border to overstretch UAF/Western intelligence monitoring.
Timeline:
0600Z–1200Z: Increased activity of RF UAV-guided artillery in the Donbas.
Next 24h: Verification of RF force shifts toward the Central Asian border.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Glaz/Groza Technical Signature: (P1) Identify the electronic signature and frequency hopping patterns of the "Glaz/Groza" digital link to facilitate Electronic Warfare (EW) jamming.
Tajik-Afghan Escalation: (P3) Monitor for RF movements of the 201st Military Base (Tajikistan) or any lateral redeployments from Ukraine to the Central Asian theater.
TOS-1A Disposition: (P2) Locate active TOS-1A/2 batteries in the Krasnohorivka/Avdiivka sectors; these are high-priority targets given their new digital integration.
Actionable Recommendations
EW Prioritization: Deploy specialized EW units to the Donbas sectors to disrupt the digital handshake between UAVs and the "Glaz/Groza" receivers.
Fortification Hardening: Units in areas known for RF TOS deployment must increase overhead cover and dispersion, as the digital coordination reduces reaction time for "incoming" warnings.
Strategic Monitoring: Task intelligence assets to monitor RF transport aviation (Il-76) movements toward Tajikistan to gauge the severity of the border clash.
