(0508Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Active UAV threat detected originating from the Black Sea, targeting the Odesa region (Tatarbunary vector).
(0507Z, TASS/Rostec, HIGH): Final batch of Su-35S multirole fighters for 2025 delivered to the Russian Ministry of Defense, signaling replenishment of VKS combat losses.
(0510Z, ZOVA, HIGH): Russian strikes on Zaporizhzhia over the last 24h resulted in five civilian casualties.
(0530Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM): RF 35th Army (Group Vostok) conducting concentrated UAV strikes against UAF personnel in the Polohy direction.
(0530Z, Igor Artamonov, HIGH): "Yellow level" air alert cancelled in Lipetsk Oblast, following earlier Bryansk "all-clears."
(0522Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM): Identity of the Moscow bomber (responsible for killing two DPS officers) reportedly "revealed," though specifics on affiliation remain vague.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The focus of the air domain has shifted from the UAF's mass-drone incursion into Russia (now in the BDA/all-clear phase) back to RF offensive UAV operations targeting the Southern Grain Corridor and Odesa's fragile energy grid.
Battlefield Geometry: The "all-clear" in Lipetsk and Bryansk suggests the UAF 141-drone wave has concluded its kinetic phase. However, a new RF drone vector is active in Odesa (Tatarbunary) (0508Z).
Weather: Winter conditions persist; visibility remains a factor for low-altitude OWA-UAV intercepts over the Black Sea.
Infrastructure:Odesa remains the most vulnerable node due to pre-existing emergency blackouts (0503Z) and new incoming threats. Kryvyi Rih reports a "controlled" status as of 0533Z.
Air Capabilities (VKS): The delivery of the final 2025 batch of Su-35S fighters (0507Z) indicates Rostec is meeting year-end production quotas despite sanctions. This reinforces RF's ability to maintain air superiority patrols and KAB (glide bomb) launch platforms.
Tactical Shift (Polohy Sector): Russian "Group Vostok" (35th Army) is heavily utilizing UAVs for "mass destruction" of personnel (0530Z), suggesting a shift toward drone-led attrition in the Zaporizhzhia sector to fix UAF reserves.
Hybrid Ops / Sanctions Evasion: Russian customs have begun hiding import data for sanctioned goods (0509Z). This systematic obfuscation facilitates the "shadow" logistics required to sustain high-tech production like the Su-35S.
Internal Security: The identification of the Moscow bomber (0522Z) suggests the siloviki are under pressure to show results following the Orekhovo-Borisovo explosion. UNCONFIRMED: Whether this individual is linked to organized partisan groups or is a lone actor.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking - IPB Step 3)
Operational Attrition: UAF continues to maintain a high rate of enemy resource destruction (860 personnel, 0514Z). Unit "Shadow" (0515Z) is demonstrating high proficiency in "bunker-busting" operations against RF fortifications.
Defensive Posture: UAF Air Defense is currently engaged in the Southern sector. Defensive lines in Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia remain stable but under constant indirect fire/UAV pressure.
Morale/Psychological: The dissemination of 2001 Putin-Bush transcripts (0530Z) serves as a strategic reminder of RF's long-term betrayal of European security norms, reinforcing the "existential threat" narrative.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain - IPB Step 4)
Domestic Russian Sentiment: Reports of 48% burnout among the Russian population (0508Z) indicate significant domestic "war weariness" entering 2026.
RF Legal Tactics: The Duma's call for online broadcasts of high-profile cases (0524Z) is likely intended to weaponize the judiciary for public "show trials" to intimidate domestic dissent or foreign captives.
Disinformation/Health Scares: Moscow-based channels are pushing a narrative about "radioactive Soviet toys" (0525Z), a typical distraction/fear-mongering tactic to occupy the domestic information space during periods of high military tension.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue the current UAV wave toward Odesa, specifically targeting coastal logistics and energy substations to exacerbate the ongoing blackout.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the newly delivered Su-35S airframes to conduct an immediate, high-intensity SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defense) mission over the Southern front, exploiting the transition of UAF AD assets to cover the 141-drone BDA.
Timeline:
0600Z–0800Z: Expected impact/intercept window for UAVs in the Tatarbunary/Odesa sector.
Next 12h: Potential for localized RF ground thrusts in the Polohy direction following the reported UAV preparation by the 35th Army.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Su-35S Technical Specs: (P1) Determine if the "final batch" of Su-35S (0507Z) includes upgraded EW or radar-absorbent coatings compared to early-2025 models.
Moscow Bombing Linkage: (P4) Corroborate the identity of the Moscow bomber; determine if there is a link to the "Romanian citizenship" pipeline identified in the 24 Dec report.
Polohy Force Composition: (P2) Identify if the 35th Army's increased UAV activity (0530Z) is a precursor to a mechanized assault or merely defensive harassment.
Actionable Recommendations
Air Defense (Odesa): Prioritize mobile AA assets to the Tatarbunary vector. The use of "Black Sea" approach paths suggests RF is attempting to bypass land-based early warning radar.
Operational Security (Polohy): Units in the Polohy sector must prioritize overhead concealment ("burrowing" awareness) given the 35th Army's success in identifying fortifications (0515Z/0530Z).
Counter-Hybrid (Customs): Share data with Western intelligence partners regarding the "Insider" report on Russian customs data concealment (0509Z) to refine "shadow fleet" and component-tracking sanctions.
