(0451Z, AV Bogomaz, HIGH): "All-clear" issued for Bryansk Oblast; the high-density OWA-UAV threat (previously reported as 62 drones) has concluded for this sector.
(0503Z, RBK-UA/Serhiy Lysak, HIGH): Emergency blackouts implemented in Odesa to prevent the collapse of damaged electrical infrastructure. This indicates that while the night was described as "peaceful," previous kinetic damage or systemic strain has reached a critical threshold.
(0455Z, ASTRA/RF MoD, HIGH): RF Ministry of Defense confirms the 141-drone wave also targeted occupied Crimea, expanding the known scope of the UAF deep-strike operation.
(0446Z, GS AFU, HIGH): Official daily combat loss report released; high personnel and equipment attrition figures corroborate the "banzai" mechanized assault intensity noted in the Myrnohrad/Novopavlivka sectors.
(0454Z, RBK-UA, MEDIUM): US-published historical transcripts of Putin-Bush conversations regarding Ukraine are being disseminated in the Ukrainian information space to frame the long-term geopolitical nature of the conflict.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The active phase of the UAF mass-drone incursion into the Russian Federation has largely concluded with "all-clears" in Bryansk and Kyiv. The focus now shifts to Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) and the management of critical infrastructure failure in Southern Ukraine.
Battlefield Geometry: The air threat has decentralized. Ground focus remains on the Novopavlivka breakthrough attempt by RF "Group Center" units.
Infrastructure Status:Odesa has entered a state of emergency grid management (0503Z). This follows the 50% generation loss reported on 24 Dec and suggests that the Southern energy hub is near a "black start" condition.
Weather: No significant change; winter conditions persist, favoring static AD over mobile units but complicating emergency repairs in Odesa.
Air Defense (AD) Performance: The RF MoD's admission of 141 drones (0455Z) suggests a requirement to explain visible impacts or significant AD activity to the Russian public. The inclusion of Crimea in the target list indicates a multi-axis UAF strike intended to fix RF AD assets away from the front lines.
Ground Offensive: The "Otvazhnye" (Group Center) units continue to be the primary threat. Their momentum toward Novopavlivka is likely intended to capitalize on the energy-induced C2 degradation in the Ukrainian rear.
Information Operations (IO): Pro-RU channels (Basurin, Archangel Spetsnaza) are saturating the environment with "Day in History" tributes and religious/morale content (0444Z, 0501Z). This is a coordinated attempt to maintain domestic stability following the largest drone wave of the quarter.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking - IPB Step 3)
Deep Strike Operations: UAF has successfully executed a complex, multi-domain OWA-UAV operation targeting Bryansk, Crimea, and potentially other regions. The objective appears to have been the saturation of RF AD and disruption of logistics nodes.
Operational Readiness: The implementation of emergency blackouts in Odesa (0503Z) will likely impact local C2 and logistics throughput for the Southern Defense Forces.
Strategic Communications: GS AFU is maintaining a standard reporting cadence (0446Z), signaling operational continuity despite the high-intensity overnight activity.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain - IPB Step 4)
Historical Narratives: The release of Putin-Bush transcripts (0454Z) is likely being used to reinforce Ukrainian resolve by highlighting long-standing RF revisionism regarding Ukraine's sovereignty.
Festive Neutralization: RF state media continues to use lighthearted US-centric holiday news (Trump/Santa tracking at 0444Z) to downplay the severity of the 141-drone strike and present a "business as usual" facade.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will conduct a series of localized "probing" ground assaults in the next 6 hours to test UAF responsiveness under blackout conditions in the Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk border regions.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the BDA from the Odesa grid failure to launch a precision missile strike on the remaining functional substations in the Southern region, aiming for a total regional blackout that would paralyze the Port of Odesa and southern rail logistics.
Timeline:
0600Z–0900Z: High probability of RF missile launches from the Black Sea or Caspian Flotilla as a "retaliation" strike.
0800Z: Initial BDA from the 141-drone strike likely to emerge via satellite imagery analysis.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Odesa Grid Specifics: (P1) Identify if the emergency blackouts (0503Z) are due to new kinetic impacts not yet reported or systemic failure of "damaged equipment" from previous dates.
Crimea Strike BDA: (P1) Determine specific targets in Crimea (e.g., Belbek Airbase, Sevastopol fuel depots) and confirm impact effectiveness.
Novopavlivka Status: (P2) Urgent update required on the forward line of own troops (FLOT) in Novopavlivka following the "Otvazhnye" storming reports.
Actionable Recommendations
Operational (Odesa): Deploy additional mobile generator units and Starlink terminals to Odesa military administrative hubs to ensure C2 continuity during emergency blackouts.
Tactical (Anti-Drone): Despite the "all-clear" in Bryansk/Kyiv, maintain high alert for "leaking" UAVs or small-group reconnaissance drones attempting to map AD positions exposed during the 141-drone wave.
IO (Counter-Propaganda): Publicize any confirmed successful hits from the 141-drone wave to counter the RF narrative of a "100% intercept rate" and maintain the initiative in the cognitive domain.
