(0423Z, KMVA, HIGH): All-clear (відбій) issued for Kyiv city; the OWA-UAV threat originating from the "Chernobyl Gap" has been neutralized or transitioned out of the metropolitan area.
(0412Z, TASS/RF MoD, HIGH): RF Ministry of Defense claims a mass UAF OWA-UAV attack involving 141 drones across multiple Russian regions overnight.
(0414Z, AV Bogomaz, MEDIUM): Specifically 62 drones reported intercepted over Bryansk Oblast; indicates a high-density effort against the northern border logistics hub.
(0430Z, TASS, LOW): Russian state media amplifying a Le Monde report claiming the new Czech Defense Minister is "banned" from speaking on Ukraine; likely a coordinated information operation to signal Western fatigue.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational tempo has shifted from a defensive focus in Kyiv to a massive Ukrainian deep-strike operation against the Russian Federation's rear, while Russian ground forces attempt to widen their breakthrough in the East.
Battlefield Geometry: The air threat to Kyiv has subsided (0423Z). However, ground operations are expanding south/west of the Myrnohrad sector toward Novopavlivka. This suggests an attempt to outflank UAF defensive lines in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad salient.
Weather/Environmental Factors: No significant change; early morning light and winter conditions continue to dictate mechanized movement speeds.
Force Dispositions: RF "Otvazhnye" units (Group Center), previously noted for high-intensity assaults, are now active in the Novopavlivka vector, indicating they are the primary echelon for the "banzai" surge identified in the 24 Dec daily report.
Ground Offensive (Novopavlivka): The commitment of "Otvazhnye" units to Novopavlivka (0425Z) confirms that the RF is not solely focused on Myrnohrad but is seeking to pressure the Dnipropetrovsk regional border. This is a tactical evolution aimed at stretching UAF reserves.
Air Defense & Rear Security: RF reports of 141 intercepted drones (0412Z) suggest their AD network was highly active overnight. The concentration in Bryansk (62 drones) indicates a UAF effort to sever logistics supporting the Northern and Kursk-border groupings.
Command and Control (C2): The use of "Police Ded Moroz" (0416Z) and festive imagery (Santa tracking at 0415Z) in RF domestic channels suggests a "business as usual" narrative designed to mask the scale of the UAF drone incursions from the Russian public.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking - IPB Step 3)
Deep Strike Capability: UAF has demonstrated a significant escalation in mass-drone employment. Launching 141+ OWA-UAVs in a single night represents a high level of coordination and a potential "saturation attack" intended to deplete RF AD before follow-on strikes.
Kyiv Defense: Successful neutralization of the NW-vector threat confirms the readiness of the capital’s AD umbrella. No kinetic impacts reported during the 0354Z–0423Z window.
Operational Constraints: UAF forces in the Novopavlivka/Myrnohrad sector are likely facing extreme pressure from Group Center’s mechanized assaults.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain - IPB Step 4)
Exploitation of Western Media: RF is using French reporting (Le Monde) to construct a narrative of internal Czech government dysfunction (DS Belief: 0.14). This is timed to coincide with Christmas to maximize the "Western abandonment" sentiment.
Festive Maskirovka: Extensive use of holiday-themed police and cultural content by RF state organs serves as a domestic stabilizer against the psychological impact of the 141-drone wave.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will launch a retaliatory missile strike within the next 12 hours (likely targeting energy or production nodes) in response to the 141-drone wave. On the ground, Group Center will continue "banzai" assaults on Novopavlivka to force a UAF retreat from the Myrnohrad salient.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the massive UAV-depleted AD environment to launch an "Oreshnik" or other high-speed ballistic strike on Dnipro or Zaporizhzhia, aiming to capitalize on the tactical momentum in Novopavlivka.
Timeline:
0500Z–0900Z: Post-strike BDA for the 141-drone wave.
0600Z–1200Z: Peak intensity of ground assaults in Novopavlivka.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Novopavlivka Penetration Depth: (P1) Confirm if RF units have established a foothold within Novopavlivka or if the "storming" (0425Z) was repelled.
141-Drone Wave BDA: (P1) Identify the specific targets of the 141 drones. Focus on Bryansk logistics nodes and any Tula-region energy sites.
Czech Policy Verification: (P3) Confirm via diplomatic channels if the Czech MoD narrative is a total fabrication or a distortion of a minor policy debate.
Actionable Recommendations
Tactical (Dnipropetrovsk/Donbas Border): Immediately redeploy available mobile anti-armor reserves to the Novopavlivka vector to prevent a breakthrough into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Strategic (Air Defense): Expect a heavy retaliatory strike. Replenish interceptor stocks for Kyiv and Central Ukraine hubs immediately following the "All Clear."
IO (Counter-Narrative): Highlight the scale of the 141-drone strike to international partners as evidence of UAF's continued capability to strike RF military-industrial targets despite the rejection of peace plans.
