(2106Z/2111Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Coordinated KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) launches detected targeting Kharkiv Oblast (from the east) and the Donetsk/East Dnipropetrovsk border regions.
(2126Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH): UAF 412th Separate Unmanned Systems Battalion ("Nemesis") successfully destroyed a Russian mobile launcher for "Gerbera" UAVs; indicates tactical success against RF's newest low-cost/decoy drone platforms.
(2131Z/2132Z, Lipetsk Gov, HIGH): "Red Level" UAV threat declared across Lipetsk Oblast (RF), specifically targeting Yelets and surrounding districts; confirms UAF deep-strike persistence against Russian logistical hubs.
(2123Z, DeepState, HIGH): Operational map updated; suggests significant positional changes on the frontlines, likely in the Myrnohrad or Pokrovsk sectors following reported "banzai" assaults.
(2122Z/2131Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): New UAV vectors identified: one group moving from West Kharkiv toward Dnipropetrovsk, and a separate group transiting South Mykolaiv toward Odesa.
(2128Z, RBC-UA, HIGH): President Macron (France) announced a timeline for finalized "reliable security guarantees" for Ukraine, countering Russian diplomatic hardening.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a high-intensity RF aerial offensive using a mix of KABs and UAVs to pressure the Ukrainian tactical rear. Concurrently, UAF has successfully extended the "deep battle" into the Russian interior (Lipetsk) while maintaining high-efficiency interdiction of RF drone launch assets near the contact line.
Battlefield Geometry: Kinetic focus has expanded from the Myrnohrad axis to include the East Dnipropetrovsk border. The update to DeepState mapping indicates the frontline is fluid, likely reflecting the "10 maneuver units" RF committed to the Myrnohrad breach.
Weather/Environment: Cold weather operations continue; RF is exploiting night-time windows for both UAV swarms and tactical aviation (KAB) sorties to maximize psychological and physical degradation of UAF defenses.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Aviation & Stand-off Strikes: RF is increasingly utilizing KABs to strike the Kharkiv-Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk triangle (2106Z, 2111Z). This suggests an attempt to suppress UAF reserves moving toward the Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk sector.
UAV Doctrine Adaptations: The deployment of "Gerbera" drones (identified at 2126Z) signifies RF's use of multi-role (strike/decoy/recon) platforms to saturate UAF Air Defense (AD). The destruction of a mobile launcher suggests these assets are being operated close to the forward edge of the battle area (FEBA) to reduce flight time.
Logistics & Rear Security: The "Red Alert" in Lipetsk (2131Z) indicates RF vulnerability in its secondary logistics echelon. Lipetsk is a critical node for rail and energy infrastructure supporting the Eastern Group of Forces.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Counter-UAS Operations: The 412th "Nemesis" Battalion is demonstrating high proficiency in hunting specialized RF drone assets. Neutralizing "Gerbera" launchers is a priority to prevent the saturation of medium-range AD.
Force Posture: UAF AD is currently managing a multi-vector threat (Kharkiv, Dnipro, Mykolaiv, Odesa). Positional stability in Myrnohrad remains the primary concern given the recent map updates and "banzai" mechanized tactics employed by the enemy.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
RF Narrative Operations: RU milbloggers (Operation Z, 2117Z) are attempting to frame EU digital and security policies (Macron/Durov) as a "Digital GULAG." This is a clear attempt to undermine Western democratic alignment and distract from the ongoing discussions regarding security guarantees for Ukraine.
Domestic RU Instability: Reports of water-main failures in Moscow (2118Z) and police activity in Khabarovsk (2115Z), while likely infrastructure-related or routine, are being monitored for potential links to partisan activity or internal C2 stress noted in earlier reports.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue KAB strikes on the Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk border to isolate Myrnohrad. UAV groups over Odesa and Dnipro will attempt to identify and fix AD positions for a subsequent ballistic strike (ref: 2052Z threat in previous sitrep).
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF achieves a localized breakthrough in the Myrnohrad sector following the "DeepState" map update, leveraging the 10 committed units to sever the main M30 highway supply line under the cover of the ongoing UAV/KAB saturation.
Timeline: High-intensity aerial engagement expected to peak between 0000Z and 0400Z.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Map Update Confirmation: Analyze the specific coordinates of the DeepState map update (2123Z) to determine if UAF has lost high ground or key trench systems in the Myrnohrad approaches.
Gerbera Capabilities: Determine the payload and EW resistance of the "Gerbera" drones to adjust electronic warfare (EW) counter-measures.
Lipetsk BDA: Obtain Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the Yelets/Lipetsk area to confirm if the "GRAU Arsenal" throughput (Daily Report, Sec 3) has been disrupted.
Actionable Recommendations
Operational (Maneuver): Ensure mobile AA teams (Gepard/Vampire) are prioritized for the Kharkiv-Dnipropetrovsk corridor to intercept UAVs before they reach logistics hubs.
Tactical (Electronic Warfare): Deploy specialized EW signatures to counter the "Gerbera" drones, treating them as high-priority decoys designed to mask more lethal Shahed-series assets.
Strategic (Communications): Amplify the success of the 412th "Nemesis" Battalion to counter the "Digital GULAG" narrative and demonstrate UAF's technical superiority in drone warfare.
