(2055Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH): UAF 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade ("Ronins") destroyed a Russian P-18 "Terek" radar and struck a Tor-M2 SAM system in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
(2052Z/2103Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Dual-vector ballistic missile threats identified from both Northeast and Southeast launch boxes.
(2042Z, TASS, MEDIUM): RF MoD claims destruction of 29 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian territory within a 3-hour window; corroborates increased UAF deep-strike activity.
(2059Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Multiple UAV groups vectoring toward Kamyanske/Dnipro from the North; concurrent swarms moving toward Sumy and Chernihiv.
(2048Z, RBC-UA, HIGH): President Zelenskyy signed legislation increasing taxation on bank profits to 50%, signaling a shift toward long-term domestic war financing.
(2039Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) launches targeting the Donetsk Oblast frontlines.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has escalated into a synchronized multi-domain engagement. The Russian Federation (RF) is currently executing a coordinated "star" pattern UAV/missile strike, utilizing multiple vectors to saturate Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) across the North, East, and South.
Battlefield Geometry: The focus remains on the Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk axis, but kinetic activity is intensifying in the Zaporizhzhia sector (65th Bde operations) and around Raiske/Andriivka (RF drone strikes on UAF logistics).
Environmental Factors: Continued reliance on night-capable UAVs for both sides suggests clear visibility and stable atmospheric conditions for low-altitude aerial assets.
Ballistic Threat: The simultaneous activation of NE and SE ballistic launch zones indicates a potential coordinated strike on C2 nodes or energy infrastructure in the Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia corridor.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Tactical Maneuver: RF forces are utilizing tactical drones (68th ORB) to interdict UAF logistics and ground-based robotic platforms (NRTK) in the Raiske and Andriivka sectors (2040Z). This suggests an attempt to isolate UAF forward positions ahead of further mechanized assaults.
Air Defense Degradation: The loss of a P-18 radar and damage to a Tor-M2 (2055Z) significantly degrades RF situational awareness and short-range AD in the Zaporizhzhia sector, potentially opening a window for UAF tactical aviation or deeper UAV penetration.
Aviation: The use of KABs in Donetsk (2039Z) continues to be the primary RF method for suppressing UAF fixed defensive positions in the Donbas.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Counter-Battery/EW Success: UAF precision strikes on high-value RF electronic assets (P-18 radar) demonstrate effective integration of reconnaissance-strike complexes.
Economic Resilience: The 50% bank profit tax (2048Z) is a critical move to stabilize the defense budget, though it may create friction within the domestic financial sector.
Defensive Posture: UAF AD is currently engaged in high-intensity tracking of multiple UAV swarms across four oblasts (Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Chernihiv).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Strategic Narratives: The "90-day settlement" timeline attributed to US Ambassador Whitaker (2035Z, 2053Z) is being aggressively amplified by both RU milbloggers and UA channels. This narrative risks inducing "expectancy bias," potentially softening public resolve if a breakthrough does not occur within the window.
Internal Russian Friction: Reports from pro-RU sources (Alex Parker, 2100Z) criticizing the "devaluation" of state honors and "weak propaganda" suggest growing resentment among the ultra-nationalist milblogger community toward the RF MoD's management of the conflict's image.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will execute a combined strike within the next 1–3 hours using the UAV swarms currently over Dnipro and Sumy as "pathfinders" to exhaust AD, followed by ballistic strikes from the NE/SE vectors targeting energy or logistics hubs.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF leverages the logistical interdiction in Raiske/Andriivka to launch a localized pincer movement against Myrnohrad, timed with a total blackout in the Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia logistics hub caused by the pending ballistic threat.
Timeline: Ballistic impact window: 2115Z–2200Z. UAV saturation continues through 0100Z.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Ballistic Launch Confirmation: Immediate confirmation of launch vehicle types (Iskander-M vs. KN-23) from NE/SE vectors.
Zaporizhzhia AD Gap: Assess the extent of the "blind spot" created by the destruction of the P-18 radar to determine if UAF can exploit this for Su-24/25 sorties.
Financial Impact: Monitor domestic reaction to the 50% bank tax to identify any risk of capital flight that could impact military procurement.
Actionable Recommendations
Operational (AD): Prioritize "point defense" for the P-18/Tor-M2 sector in Zaporizhzhia, as RF may attempt a retaliatory strike on UAF reconnaissance units.
Civil Defense: Issue immediate ballistic alerts for Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and Poltava based on NE/SE threat vectors.
Counter-Hybrid: StratCom must issue a clarifying statement regarding the "90-day settlement" rumors to manage domestic expectations and prevent the RU milblogger community from framing it as a "surrender timeline."
