(1903Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Multiple launches of KAB (Guided Aerial Bombs) targeting the Donetsk and eastern Dnipropetrovsk regions.
(1859Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Aviation-delivered ordnance threat identified for the Synelnykove district (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast).
(1858Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Inbound UAVs (Geran/Shahed) detected over Chernihiv, Ripky, and Kulykivka, indicating a multi-pronged aerial assault on the Northern sector.
(1841Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): RF Pantsir-S system engaged and destroyed a UAF UAV in the Vostok Group area of responsibility.
(1836Z, AV Bogomaz, MEDIUM): UAF drone activity reported over Bryansk Oblast (RF); local air defenses engaged.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The tactical situation has transitioned from localized ground skirmishes to a coordinated, multi-axis aerial bombardment. The RF is leveraging tactical aviation (Su-34/35) to deliver high-yield KAB strikes across the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk border, aiming to soften defenses near the Synelnykove rail and logistics hub.
Battlefield Geometry: The air threat has expanded from the Kharkiv corridor (noted at 1834Z) to include the Chernihiv-Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhzhia arc. The focus is shifting toward the tactical rear (Synelnykove) to disrupt UAF reinforcement of the Myrnohrad/Pokrovsk axes.
Weather/Environmental: No significant changes; sub-zero temperatures persist, increasing the criticality of the infrastructure strikes reported in the previous sitrep.
Force Dispositions: RF tactical aviation is highly active in the East, while "Vostok" and "Zapad" air defense groups are on high alert for UAF counter-UAV operations in Bryansk and the Donbas.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Aviation Shift: The transition from ballistic/supersonic targets (1834Z) to massed KAB launches (1903Z) indicates an echeloned strike pattern. KABs are being used to degrade frontline fortifications and immediate tactical rears where AD density may be lower.
Economic Resilience: The resumption of oil exports to India (1855Z) provides the RF MoD with continued liquidity to sustain high-attrition "banzai" assaults and the professionalization of drone units (e.g., "Kaira" detachment).
Internal Security & Symbolism: The 1-year anniversary of the AZAL crash in Grozny (1901Z) is being used by the Kadyrov regime to demonstrate regional stability and federal-regional cooperation, though criticized by some milbloggers (1902Z) for mismanaged optics ("Akhmat vs Plane" narrative).
Legal Repression: Continued prosecution of RF citizens for minor digital "infractions" (Jeembo rap video, 1858Z) indicates the Kremlin is intensifying its "Internal Front" to prevent any anti-war sentiment from coalescing during the winter offensive.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Air Defense (AD) Engagement: UAF AD assets are currently engaged in a high-intensity "leaping" defense, tracking targets from Chernihiv in the North to Zaporizhzhia in the South.
UAV Offensive: UAF continues to project power into the RF rear (Bryansk, 1836Z) to force the redeployment of RF AD assets (Pantsir-S) away from the frontlines.
Morale: The General Staff of the UAF (1901Z) has launched "Christmas comes quietly" messaging, a strategic communication effort to maintain public and troop resilience amid the escalating air strikes and infrastructure failures.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Fatalism as a Weapon: Pro-Russian channels (Alex Parker Returns, 1837Z) are amplifying pessimistic quotes from Western leaders (e.g., Meloni) to foster a sense of "inevitable decline" and Western abandonment among the Ukrainian population.
Economic Narrative: RF state media is utilizing Bloomberg data (1839Z) to frame the Ruble as a "top-performing asset," a sophisticated disinformation effort to counter the reality of 50% energy generation loss and massive military expenditures. Confidence: MEDIUM.
U.S. Policy Signaling: Reports of accelerated U.S. deportations (1836Z) are being introduced into the Ukrainian information space to signal a shift in U.S. focus toward domestic issues, potentially undermining confidence in long-term security guarantees.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF tactical aviation will maintain the KAB pressure on the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk border for the next 6 hours to prevent UAF reserves from reaching Myrnohrad. Concurrently, Shahed swarms will persist over Chernihiv to fix Northern AD units.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated strike using the "high-speed targets" (from 1834Z) against the Synelnykove rail junction while UAF AD is saturated by KABs and Shaheds, effectively severing the main logistics artery to the entire Donbas front.
Timeline: Peak aerial activity expected between 2100Z and 0300Z.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
KAB Launch Platforms: Identify the specific airfields (e.g., Millerovo or Morozovsk) hosting the Su-34s currently conducting the Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk strikes.
Synelnykove Infrastructure: Assess the current throughput capacity of the Synelnykove rail hub and its vulnerability to guided munitions.
Zaporizhzhia Recon UAV: Determine if the UAV south of Zaporizhzhia (1856Z) has successfully relayed BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of previous strikes.
Actionable Recommendations
Operational (AD): Deploy Electronic Warfare (EW) complexes to the Synelnykove district to disrupt the GPS-guidance kits of incoming KABs.
Logistics: Implement "disperse and hide" protocols for all rolling stock and ammunition caches in the Eastern Dnipropetrovsk region.
Strategic: The MFA should engage with Indian counterparts to clarify the Reliance oil deal, emphasizing the impact of oil revenue on the systematic destruction of Ukrainian heating/water infrastructure.
Counter-Disinfo: AFU StratCom must counter the "Western abandonment" narrative by highlighting the Sweden-Gripen training timeline and recent Tula industrial strikes.
