(1754Z, RVvoenkor, MEDIUM): Russian sources admit a "powerful Ukrainian counteroffensive" is underway in the Kupyansk sector, with UAF attempting to recapture the city.
(1742Z/1745Z, Mayor of Kharkiv/Synyehubov, HIGH): Confirmed kinetic impacts in the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv. Damage assessment ongoing.
(1750Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): UAF 1st OShP successfully repelled a mechanized assault ("armored sheds") on the Dobropillia axis, indicating a westward expansion of Russian pressure from the Pokrovsk salient.
(1804Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Multiple Russian strikes reported across Sumy Oblast, signaling an intensification of the "Northern Tier" offensive.
(1748Z, TASS/Russian MoD, MEDIUM): Russia claims to have intercepted 132 Ukrainian UAVs over RF territory between 1300-2000 MSK, suggesting a massive UAF deep-strike wave.
(1754Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Ongoing "Geran" (Shahed) threat over Chernihiv; residents ordered to shelters.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational environment has transitioned from a Russian "holiday" aerial offensive into a high-intensity multi-domain engagement.
Battlefield Geometry: The center of gravity has fractured. While the RF continues mechanized pressure toward Dobropillia, the Kupyansk sector has seen a significant reversal, with UAF seizing the tactical initiative.
Weather/Environment: No significant change; cold weather continues to favor static defense but allows for mechanized movement on frozen/semi-frozen ground.
Control Measures: Russian forces are increasingly reliant on "armored sheds" (improvised turtle tanks) to mitigate UAF FPV superiority during mechanized pushes (1750Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Tactical Shift (Kupyansk): Russian milbloggers (Radov, RVvoenkor) are exhibiting signs of "information panic," admitting that official Russian claims of "clearing" Kupyansk were premature. This indicates a C2 failure and a potential collapse of the RF defensive screen on the city's outskirts.
Maneuver (Dobropillia): The commitment of mechanized columns toward Dobropillia suggests the RF "Center" Grouping is attempting to bypass the Myrnohrad bottleneck by swinging further west, seeking softer points in the UAF defensive line.
Special Operations: The mention of the "Rubicon" group (1802Z) suggests the deployment of specialized RF drone or electronic warfare units to the Donbas front to counter UAF technical superiority.
Sustainment: Claims by "Post of Russia" denying mass layoffs (1743Z) may hint at underlying logistical or labor stresses within the Russian rear that could impact long-term sustainment.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Counter-Offensive Capability: The UAF has successfully transitioned from "active defense" to "localized counter-offensive" in the Kupyansk sector, exploiting Russian C2 friction identified in the 1500Z Daily Report.
Defensive Success: The 1st OShP demonstrated high readiness on the Dobropillia axis, effectively neutralizing Russian mechanized assets using integrated anti-armor fires.
Resource Mobilization: The "Spilnota Sternenka" fund is aggressively leveraging state financial aid programs ("Winter 1,000 UAH") to crowdfund "Rusoriz" drone assets (1756Z), indicating a high level of civilian-military integration in the drone supply chain.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Religious Weaponization: Russian propaganda (Kotsnews, 1802Z-18:03Z) has launched a coordinated narrative attack, labeling President Zelenskyy as "anti-Christian" and "blasphemous" during his Christmas address. This is a clear attempt to alienate religiously conservative elements of the international community and domestic Ukrainian audience.
Internal RF Friction: The candid criticism of the Kupyansk situation by Z-bloggers (1739Z, 1754Z) indicates a widening gap between the Russian MoD’s optimistic reporting and the tactical reality on the ground.
Dempster-Shafer Support: High belief scores for "Propaganda Effort" (0.22) align with the observed spike in religious-themed disinformation.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue to utilize its "Geran" (Shahed) inventory to saturate Chernihiv and Kharkiv overnight (24-25 Dec) to mask the tactical regrouping necessitated by the UAF counter-offensive at Kupyansk.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A major Russian retaliatory missile strike targeting the Kyiv-Chernihiv corridor to "punish" the UAF for the 132-drone wave reported by the RF MoD (1748Z).
Timeline: Expect a peak in kinetic activity between 0000Z and 0400Z on 25 Dec, coinciding with Christmas morning.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Kupyansk Front Line Trace: Urgent need for satellite/ELINT to confirm the depth of the UAF counter-penetration into Kupyansk.
Dobropillia Force Composition: Identify the specific RF units involved in the "armored shed" assault. If these are "Center" Grouping reserves, it indicates a significant shift in Russian tactical priorities.
Sumy Impact BDA: Determine if the strikes on Sumy (1804Z) targeted logistical hubs supporting the Kupyansk counter-offensive.
Actionable Recommendations
Tactical (Kupyansk): Maintain high tempo. RF C2 is currently fractured; localized breakthroughs should be exploited immediately before Russian reserves can be redirected from the Pokrovsk sector.
Counter-Disinformation: AFU StratCom should release neutral, high-quality footage of Christmas services within frontline units to neutralize the "anti-Christian" narrative being pushed by Kotsnews/Russian state media.
Air Defense (Donbas): Redeploy FPV-interceptor teams to the Dobropillia axis to counter the "Rubicon" group’s drone operations.
