(1730Z, Oleh Synyehubov/Air Force UAF, HIGH): Kinetic impact in Kharkiv city following reports of a high-speed target (likely ballistic or supersonic cruise missile) and active loitering munitions (UAVs) over the city.
(1729Z, Rybar, MEDIUM): Russian tactical advances reported on the Slobozhansky axis (Sumy Oblast border); map data suggests localized probes into border settlements.
(1726Z, Operatsiya Z, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Russian sources claim the "Center" Grouping has encircled Myrnohrad and is advancing into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This is currently assessed as high-probability disinformation/exaggeration.
(1720Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Confirmed "Geran" (Shahed) UAV ingress over Chernihiv, indicating a multi-vector drone strike tonight targeting northern and eastern hubs.
(1719Z, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Reports of sustained, high-intensity Russian assaults near Kostiantynivka, utilizing "constant pressure" infantry tactics.
(1725Z, NgP Razvedka, MEDIUM): Prominent Russian milbloggers are publicly defending their previous warnings of a UAF buildup near Kupyansk, indirectly confirming the severity of the Russian tactical failure in that sector.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational environment has shifted toward a coordinated Russian aerial offensive targeting the northern tier (Chernihiv-Kharkiv) coinciding with Christmas Eve.
Battlefield Geometry: The front remains most volatile in the Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad sector. While Russian sources claim an "encirclement" of Myrnohrad (1726Z), no geographic verification supports a total cut-off of UAF GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication). The Slobozhansky (Sumy) border is seeing renewed Russian maneuver activity, likely intended to fix UAF reserves away from the Kupyansk/Donbas axes.
Weather/Environment: Cold weather persists (approx. 0°C), increasing the reliance on the degraded power grid. High geomagnetic activity remains a factor for precision strikes and EW.
Infrastructure: Immediate threat to Kharkiv’s remaining energy and civil infrastructure following confirmed explosions (1730Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Course of Action - Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad: The RF "Center" Grouping is attempting to capitalize on mechanized "banzai" assaults. The claim of entering Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (1726Z) suggests the RF is attempting to push toward the administrative border to create a psychological breakthrough, even if tactical gains are marginal.
Course of Action - Northern Tier: Simultaneous drone (Chernihiv) and missile/drone (Kharkiv) strikes indicate a "starburst" approach to saturate Ukrainian AD.
Tactical Adaptation: Near Kostiantynivka, the RF has shifted to "constant assaults" (1719Z), likely using small-unit attrition to exhaust UAF defenders who are facing ammunition constraints (ref: Daily Report 1500Z).
C2 Status: Significant friction remains in the Russian information space regarding the Kupyansk reversal. The defensive tone of "Z-channels" (NgP Razvedka, 1725Z) suggests internal recriminations within the RF MoD regarding the loss of the city.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Defensive Posture: UAF forces in Kharkiv and Chernihiv are in active air-defense engagement. Mobile fire groups are likely active against Shahed-type UAVs.
Morale and Psychological Operations: High-level military leadership (Gen. Naiev) and prominent civil figures (Sternenko) have released Christmas Eve messages (1710Z, 1723Z). This is a vital counter-narrative to Russian pressure, framing the holiday as a symbol of resilience.
Sector Stability: Despite Russian claims of "encirclement" at Myrnohrad, UAF defensive lines (specifically the "Chervona Kalyna" Brigade) are assessed to be holding, though under extreme mechanized pressure.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Aggressive Disinformation: Pro-Russian channels (Operatsiya Z) are pushing a narrative of "total encirclement" and "advances into Dnipro" to induce panic during the holiday. These claims lack visual or multi-source corroboration and are assessed as LOW CONFIDENCE.
Historical Revisionism: Rybar (1710Z) and Kotsnews (1732Z) are focusing on "de-nazification" in Asia and the restoration of Soviet monuments (Felix Dzerzhinsky). This suggests a pivot toward ideological mobilization and internal Russian political consolidation as the kinetic front stalls in key areas like Kupyansk.
Dempster-Shafer Support: Current beliefs show a high score for "Morale Boost for Ukraine" (0.52), indicating the Christmas narrative is effectively counter-acting Russian kinetic pressure in the cognitive domain.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue the saturation of Kharkiv and Chernihiv with UAVs through the night of 24-25 Dec. Ground forces will attempt to "verify" the Myrnohrad encirclement claims with a high-risk nighttime mechanized push to seize a symbolic foothold.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated breakthrough on the Slobozhansky (Sumy) axis (ref: Rybar, 1729Z) that forces UAF to pull the 425th "Skelya" Regiment or other reserves away from the Pokrovsk sector, leading to a genuine collapse of the Myrnohrad flanks.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Verification of Myrnohrad Encirclement: Urgent need for drone reconnaissance/SIGINT to confirm if the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk has been reached or if this is purely a psychological operation.
Slobozhansky Maneuver Scale: Determine if the "localized advances" in Sumy (1729Z) involve battalion-sized elements or are limited to sabotage and reconnaissance groups (DRGs).
Kharkiv Impact BDA: Assess the target of the "high-speed target" (1726Z). If it hit energy infrastructure, the 25 Dec blackout schedule may need to be revised to "Emergency" status.
Actionable Recommendations
Tactical (Myrnohrad/Pokrovsk): Deny the "encirclement" narrative through official AFU StratCom channels with geolocated footage of open GLOCs to prevent localized panic among defending units.
Air Defense (Northern Tier): Deploy additional "Gepard" or similar mobile AD assets to the Chernihiv-Kyiv corridor to intercept the current "Geran" wave before it reaches the capital (ref: 1720Z).
Operational (Sumy/Slobozhansky): Increase border surveillance. The Rybar map (1729Z) may indicate the start of a secondary offensive to exploit UAF's focus on the Kupyansk/Pokrovsk sectors.
