(1653Z, ASTRA/Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): Significant operational reversal in Kupyansk; Russian "Z-channels" report UAF has effectively regained control of the city, reversing Russian gains from November.
(1646Z, TASS, HIGH): Strategic UAV strike on Moscow; Russian AD reportedly intercepted 10 drones since the start of the day. (1704Z, RVvoenkor, MEDIUM) describes this as a "breakthrough attempt."
(1642Z, Ukrenergo, HIGH): Official confirmation of nationwide hourly power outages and industrial capacity limits for tomorrow, 25 December, across all Ukrainian regions.
(1641Z/1644Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): Active UAV threats moving through Sumy Oblast (Lebedyn) toward Poltava Oblast (Hadyach).
(1653Z, CyberBoroshno, MEDIUM): Post-strike analysis of the Dec 21 strike on Taman Port confirms damage to infrastructure and tankers, further degrading Russian Black Sea logistics.
(1640Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Internal security incident in Vidnoye (Moscow region); mass poisoning at a nursing home (40+ affected, 6 dead) leads to criminal charges, contributing to local administrative strain.
(1655Z, TASS, LOW): Scientific reporting indicates 2025 has reached record levels of solar/geomagnetic activity, posing a potential risk to satellite-based communications and GPS guidance systems.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational environment is characterized by a major Russian tactical-operational failure on the northern axis and continued Ukrainian pressure on the Russian strategic rear (Moscow/Taman).
Battlefield Geometry: The Kupyansk salient has likely collapsed for Russian forces. In the Pokrovsk sector, the frontline remains fluid but stable, with UAF utilizing high-frequency drone strikes to maintain defensive integrity.
Infrastructure: The national power grid remains under extreme stress. The announcement of nationwide blackouts for Christmas Day (1642Z) indicates that recent strikes on energy nodes (Cherkasy/Kropyvnytskyi) have successfully degraded the reserve capacity.
Weather/Environment: High geomagnetic activity (1655Z) is an emerging factor that may intermittently degrade EW effectiveness and precision-guided munition (PGM) accuracy for both sides over the next 24-48 hours.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Kupyansk Sector Crisis: Russian milbloggers (ASTRA, 16:53Z; NgP Razvedka, 16:57Z) are reporting a "defeat" and "false reporting" within their own ranks. This suggests a breakdown in Russian Command and Control (C2) and a failure of the localized offensive momentum noted in the previous 24h report.
Strategic Rear Vulnerability: The interception of 10 UAVs over Moscow (16:46Z) indicates that Russian air defenses are being saturated. The continued reach of UAF long-range assets forces the RF to pull AD assets away from the frontline to protect the capital.
Information Pivot: Following the rejection of the peace plan, Russian propaganda is now attempting to rebrand the proposal as a "working draft" rather than a final document (16:52Z), likely to manage internal expectations and deflect blame for continued hostilities.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Counter-Offensive Success: The reported regain of control in Kupyansk (16:53Z) is a major tactical success for UAF, likely led by General Drapatyi's grouping. This removes a significant threat to the Oskil River line.
Pokrovsk Defense: The 425th "Skelya" Regiment has transitioned back to intensive drone operations (16:59Z) after using Abrams tanks for initial stabilization. This indicates a "flexible defense" posture designed to attrit Russian "banzai" assaults without overextending armored reserves.
Long-Range Effects: The BDA from Taman Port (16:53Z) confirms that UAF's deep strike campaign is successfully targeting the Russian energy export and military logistics hub in the Sea of Azov, independent of frontline fluctuations.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Z-Channel Fragmentation: There is visible discord in the pro-Russian information space regarding the Kupyansk failure. Accusations of "false reports" and "winning against ourselves" (16:57Z, 17:04Z) indicate a period of low morale and internal finger-pointing among Russian military influencers.
Disinformation Campaigns: Russian channels are pushing crude personal attacks against Western leaders (e.g., Macron, 17:00Z) and interpreting Western media (Guardian, 16:41Z) to portray Ukraine as being "out of options." This is assessed as a compensatory narrative for the Kupyansk reversal.
Public Morale: Official holiday messages from Regional Administrations (Kharkiv/Zaporizhzhia) and President Zelenskyy (17:00Z - 17:04Z) focus on resilience and "unbreakable faith," aiming to stabilize domestic morale ahead of the scheduled blackouts.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will attempt to stabilize the Kupyansk front by redeploying reserves from the Svatove axis. Expect an uptick in Russian missile strikes tonight targeting the Kyiv and Kharkiv regions as "retaliation" for the Moscow UAV incursions and the Kupyansk loss.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF command, facing internal pressure over the Kupyansk failure, may bypass tactical stabilization and launch an immediate, uncoordinated mechanized surge toward Myrnohrad to secure a "holiday victory," potentially leading to high attrition but risking a localized breakthrough if UAF ammunition levels remain low.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Kupyansk Frontline Verification: Urgent need for SIGINT/IMINT to determine the exact extent of Russian retreat. Are they holding the eastern industrial outskirts or have they fully withdrawn across the river?
Solar Impact on EW: Monitor failure rates of GPS-guided munitions and Starlink connectivity over the next 12h to correlate with solar activity spikes (ref: 1655Z).
Moscow UAV Targets: Identify the specific flight paths and intended targets of the 10 drones downed over Moscow to determine if the focus was C2 nodes, industry, or symbolic targets.
Actionable Recommendations
Operational (Kupyansk): Rapidly deploy mobile AD and EW units to the newly reclaimed areas of Kupyansk to prevent Russian tactical aviation from striking UAF consolidation points.
Logistical (Grid Resilience): Ensure all hospitals and critical C2 centers have 48 hours of fuel for generators prior to the 25 Dec blackouts (1642Z).
Tactical (Northern Tier): Units in Sumy and Poltava should prepare for "starburst" drone tactics; the current UAV vector toward Hadyach (1644Z) suggests a multi-target loitering munition mission.
