(1631Z, RBK-Ukraine/Terehov, HIGH): Russian forces utilized a "Molniya" (Lightning) drone to strike Kharkiv; represents a tactical deployment of a specific loitering munition type in an urban environment.
(1629Z, Rybar, LOW):UNCONFIRMED claim that Russian forces have taken control of Zarechne (East Zaporizhzhia operational direction). This follows earlier reports of a "decisive phase" near Huliaipole.
(1623Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): UAF MiG-29MU1 successfully conducted a precision strike using French AASM HAMMER guided bombs against a Russian observation post near a river crossing in Kherson Oblast.
(1618Z, Шеф Hayabusa, HIGH): Urgent tactical alert for Kherson Oblast regarding new Russian drone-dropped IEDs (specifically magnetic/proximity mines); intelligence corroborated by captured Russian instructional materials.
(1608Z/1615Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): Active UAV threats identified moving toward Sumy (from the south) and Chernihiv (targeting the city and border settlements of Horodnia/Rіpky).
(1610Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): International counter-sabotage success: Switzerland extradited a Ukrainian national to Germany suspected of preparing Russian-ordered sabotage operations.
(1622Z, RBK-Ukraine/Zelenskyy, HIGH): Official confirmation that the Russian Federation has rejected all Christmas Eve truce proposals, maintaining active kinetic operations.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational tempo remains high as the Christmas holiday begins, with Russia intentionally rejecting a ceasefire to maintain pressure on multiple axes.
Battlefield Geometry: The eastern front (Pokrovsk) remains the primary focus of kinetic energy, but a secondary push in the Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole sector is gaining momentum with the reported (though unconfirmed) capture of Zarechne.
Weather/Environmental: Persistent UAV activity across the northern tier (Chernihiv/Sumy) indicates favorable conditions for loitering munition operations despite the winter season.
Infrastructure: Continued targeting of Kharkiv with new drone types ("Molniya") suggests an adaptation in Russian tactical aviation/unmanned strikes against border cities.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Tactical Adaptations (UAS/IEDs): The deployment of "Molniya" drones in Kharkiv and new IED types in Kherson indicates a continuous cycle of technical iteration. The Kherson IEDs appear designed to disrupt UAF logistics near river crossings.
Zaporizhzhia Offensive: The claim of control over Zarechne (1629Z) suggests the RF "Vostok" grouping is attempting to roll up the flanks of the Huliaipole defense. If confirmed, this compromises the tactical depth of the southern defensive line.
Force Generation: Russian MoD is actively showcasing the provisioning of BARS (Volunteer) units with new hardware (1618Z), likely to offset the high attrition rates reported by UAF 3rd AC (1630Z), who assess RF replacements are failing to cover losses.
Internal Security: The FSB claim of foiling sabotage in Tyumen (1620Z) indicates high sensitivity toward energy infrastructure in the Russian deep rear following recent UAF SBS strikes (e.g., Tula).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Precision Capability: The use of AASM HAMMER by UAF MiG-29s (1623Z) demonstrates successful integration of Western precision munitions into Soviet-era platforms, providing a high-impact standoff capability against Russian C2/observation nodes.
Pokrovsk Stability: The SKELIA 425 unit reports a "systematic and controlled" defensive operation in the Pokrovsk direction (1611Z). This suggests that while the RF banzai assaults continue, UAF drone-integrated defense is successfully attriting assault groups in treelines and urban cover.
Scientific-Military Integration: President Zelenskyy’s presentation of the Borys Paton National Prize (1608Z) emphasizes the role of Ukrainian domestic R&D in developing the very technologies (drones/EW) currently stabilizing the front.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
"Free City" Narrative: Pro-Russian channels (WarGonzo, 1631Z) are floating a trial balloon for a "geopolitical proposal" to declare Kharkiv and Odesa as "Free Cities" outside Ukrainian jurisdiction. This is assessed as a strategic psychological operation aimed at softening Ukrainian sovereignty claims.
Diplomatic Friction: Reports of an EU/US rift regarding sanctions (1606Z) are being amplified by Ukrainian media, potentially signaling concerns over Western unity heading into 2026.
Counter-Espionage: The extradition of a Russian-linked saboteur from Switzerland to Germany (1610Z) serves as a potent counter-narrative to Russian hybrid operations in Europe.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify the use of "Molniya" drones and loitering munitions across Kharkiv and Sumy tonight to maximize psychological pressure during Christmas Eve. On the ground, expect the RF "Vostok" grouping to attempt to consolidate the Zarechne-Huliaipole axis.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the reported "decisive phase" in Zaporizhzhia to launch a mechanized breakthrough toward the city of Zaporizhzhia itself, timed with a saturation drone/missile strike on the regional energy hub to coincide with the holiday.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Zarechne Confirmation: Immediate IMINT/Drone reconnaissance required to confirm the status of Zarechne. If RF control is confirmed, identify if they are digging in or preparing for a further push toward Huliaipole.
Molniya Drone Specs: Request technical BDA and wreckage recovery from the Kharkiv strike (1631Z) to determine frequency ranges and guidance systems of the "Molniya" variant.
Kherson IED Proliferation: Identify the delivery mechanism for the new magnetic IEDs. Are these being deployed by specific UAS units or conventional artillery?
Actionable Recommendations
Tactical (Kherson): Issue an immediate safety advisory to all riverine and logistical units in Kherson regarding magnetic/proximity IEDs. Update EOD protocols for drone-dropped munitions.
Air Defense (Kharkiv/Sumy): Reconfigure localized EW jammers to account for the possible new frequency signatures of the "Molniya" drones.
Operational (Zaporizhzhia): Prepare reserve maneuver elements for a potential counter-attack or containment operation in the Zarechne sector to prevent the expansion of the Russian bridgehead.
