(1604Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Operations near Huliaipole (Zaporizhzhia) are reportedly entering a "decisive phase" with Russian forces intensifying pressure on the sector.
(1554Z, ОВА/Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): BDA update on Cherkasy: Missile strikes hit a cemetery and the "Alley of Heroes"; one civilian male confirmed injured in Cherkasy Raion.
(1557Z, Alex Parker Returns, LOW):UNCONFIRMED claim that Kupyansk has fallen. This contradicts previous reports of RF command breakdown and is assessed as highly likely disinformation.
(1602Z, Дневник Десантника, MEDIUM): RF forces claim localized tactical advances in the Slavyansk direction, specifically west and northwest of the Bakhmut axis.
(1548Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH):UAV Alert issued for Chernihiv Oblast; indicates continued persistence of "Shahed" or similar loitering munitions targeting the northern corridor.
(1543Z, Sternenko, MEDIUM): UAF units in the Zaporizhzhia direction report "two new jackpots" (successful destruction of high-value RF assets), likely countering the reported Huliaipole push.
(1545Z/1603Z, Colonelcassad/TASS, HIGH): President Putin conducted a high-profile awards ceremony at the Kremlin, decorating state propagandist Vladimir Solovyov and MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova, signaling a consolidation of the domestic narrative.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
Operational focus remains split between the energy terror campaign in Central Ukraine and a broadening of tactical pressure across the southern and eastern axes.
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline is seeing increased activity in the Zaporizhzhia (Huliaipole) sector, potentially a secondary effort to the Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad surge to fix UAF reserves.
Weather/Environment: Continued UAV activity in the north (Chernihiv) suggests weather conditions have not yet grounded RF loitering munitions.
Logistics: Successful delivery of tactical medical supplies to UAF frontline units (1501Z) provides a localized sustainment boost amidst high-intensity combat.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Zaporizhzhia Offensive (Huliaipole): The claim of a "decisive phase" (1604Z) suggests RF may be attempting to capitalize on the recent focus on Myrnohrad by launching a flanking maneuver or a significant breach attempt in the south.
Slavyansk/Bakhmut Sector: Reported advances NW of Bakhmut (1602Z) indicate RF is seeking to improve its tactical positions on the heights overlooking the Slavyansk approach, utilizing VDV (Paratrooper) elements.
C2 and Morale: While RF leadership projects stability via Kremlin awards ceremonies, the detention of the First Deputy Head of Snizhne (occupied Donbas) for bribery (1542Z) indicates ongoing systemic corruption and internal friction in the occupation administration.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Ukrainian Defensive Success: The report of "jackpots" in Zaporizhzhia (1543Z) suggests UAF anti-tank or FPV drone teams are successfully attriting RF mechanized components attempting the Huliaipole push.
Morale and Leadership: General Syrskyi and President Zelenskyy have issued holiday addresses (1536Z, 1541Z). The messaging focuses on national resilience ("one dream—that he dies") and the sanctity of the Christmas Eve (Sviata Vechera) period.
Civilian Defense: Photo exhibitions in Zaporizhzhia (1550Z) targeting veterans indicate a concerted effort to maintain rear-area morale and psychological resilience.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Russian Disinformation: RF channels are heavily targeting Zelenskyy’s Christmas address, attempting to frame his wish for the end of the RF leadership as "un-Christian" or "bloodthirsty" (1556Z, 1600Z).
Economic Narrative Warfare: TASS/Bloomberg reports (1553Z) claiming the Ruble is the "strongest currency of 2025" are being prioritized to project economic stability despite ongoing sanctions. This contrasts with Reuters reports (1535Z) of currency volatility globally.
Targeting Tradition: Pro-Russian sources are circulating rumors that the Ukrainian Cabinet moved "Programmer Day" to Jan 7 to replace Orthodox Christmas (1550Z); this is assessed as a low-level "culture war" disinformation tactic.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the UAV/missile pressure on Chernihiv and Cherkasy tonight to disrupt the holiday period. Kinetic efforts will focus on confirming a breach near Huliaipole to force UAF to redeploy units from the Pokrovsk sector.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the reported advances in the Slavyansk direction (1602Z) to launch a coordinated multi-axis assault on the Kramatorsk-Slavyansk agglomeration, exploiting the Christmas stand-down to achieve tactical surprise.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Kupyansk Verification: Urgent requirement for SIGINT/IMINT to verify the status of Kupyansk. The "Alex Parker" claim (1557Z) is currently treated as disinformation but requires definitive refutation.
Huliaipole Force Composition: Identify the specific units committed to the "decisive phase" in Huliaipole. Are these the 10 units previously seen at Myrnohrad or a fresh southern operational group?
Chernihiv UAV Flight Paths: Analyze the ingress routes of the 1548Z UAVs to determine if they are originating from Russian territory or the Belarusian border.
Actionable Recommendations
Tactical (Zaporizhzhia): Increase the density of FPV and ATGM teams in the Huliaipole sector to capitalize on the "decisive phase" by inflicting disproportionate mechanized losses.
Information Ops: Rapidly circulate BDA of the Cherkasy cemetery/Alley of Heroes strike (1549Z) to counter the RF narrative of "un-Christian" Ukrainian leadership. Highlight the RF's own desecration of holy sites on Christmas Eve.
Air Defense: Maintain high alert in Chernihiv/Kyiv corridor; the 1548Z UAV alert suggests a multi-wave loitering munition attack designed to drain AD interceptors before a primary missile salvo.
