(1530Z, Zelenskiy/Official, HIGH): President Zelenskyy confirmed the Russian Federation (RF) has officially rejected the Christmas truce proposal supported by Pope Leo XIV.
(1530Z, Дневник Десантника, HIGH): Kinzhal or cruise missile impact confirmed on the Cherkasy Thermal Power Plant (TPP); secondary reports indicate significant damage to generation infrastructure (corroborated by 1527Z, Военкор Котенок).
(1508Z, Kotsnews, LOW):UNCONFIRMED claim that RF 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade has captured Andreevka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) on the eastern bank of the Gaichur River; suggests a potential new axis of advance into Dnipropetrovsk.
(1523Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM): UAF GUR "Black Winter Group" conducted heliborne insertions via UH-60 Blackhawks in the Pokrovsk sector, indicating high-intensity Special Operations (SOF) activity to stabilize the front.
(1527Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): RF "Tsentr" Group of Forces is actively deploying Supercam UAVs for real-time fire adjustment against UAF positions in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction.
(1520Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM): Moscow Mayor Sobyanin launched a recruitment drive specifically targeting "gamers" for the newly formed "Unmanned Forces," signaling an institutional shift toward mass-produced drone pilot cadres.
(1531Z, Басурин о главном, MEDIUM): FSB reports "neutralizing" a suspected saboteur at a pipeline dispatch station in Tyumen (RF), indicating heightened security on Russian energy export infrastructure.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational tempo has accelerated despite the Christmas Eve (Sviata Vechera) period. The RF is prioritizing the destruction of energy nodes in Central Ukraine while attempting a tactical surprise by pushing into the Dnipropetrovsk border regions.
Battlefield Geometry: The focus has expanded from the Myrnohrad surge to include a potential breach at Andreevka (Gaichur River). If confirmed, this moves the frontline into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, threatening the wider logistics of the Southern/Donbas hinge.
Weather/Environment: (1528Z, ТАСС) "Yellow" weather alerts for snow and high winds in Moscow/Podmoskovye. These conditions are likely to degrade RF aerial reconnaissance and drone operations in the northern sectors but may provide concealment for tactical movements.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions:
Advanced Recon-Strike: The use of Supercam UAVs (1527Z) by the Tsentr Group indicates a high degree of integration between ISR and heavy artillery in the Pokrovsk sector. This suggests the "Glaz/Groza" system mentioned in previous reports is being supplemented by established fixed-wing assets to maintain pressure during GPS-denied periods.
Institutional Drone Warfare: The recruitment of gamers for "Unmanned Forces" (1520Z) demonstrates an RF MoD intent to solve pilot attrition by lowering entry requirements and tapping into civilian technical skills.
Tactical Changes:
Dnipropetrovsk Incursion: The claim of capturing Andreevka (1508Z) indicates the RF is testing the Gaichur River line. Mines were noted as the primary obstacle, which RF claims to have cleared using "East" group assets.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Ukrainian Force Posture:
SOF Deployment: The "Black Winter Group" (GUR) deployment via UH-60 in Pokrovsk (1523Z) suggests a "fire brigade" response to the heavy mechanized assaults on the "Chervona Kalyna" Brigade mentioned in previous daily reports.
Defense of Gaichur River: UAF units in the Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia border region are facing increased pressure; the use of ground-based robotic complexes (1526Z) indicates a reliance on unmanned systems to hold positions where infantry density is low.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Diplomatic Stalemate: The rejection of the Vatican-backed truce (1530Z) is being framed by RF channels as a rejection of "insane" demands (1525Z), while Ukraine uses it to consolidate international support and domestic resolve.
Economic Pressure: (1517Z) Reports of German/Austrian customs blocking Russian parcels further isolates the RF civilian population during the holiday period, likely to be used by the Kremlin to fuel "besieged fortress" narratives.
Turkey’s Role: (1507Z) Emerging analysis suggests Turkey is increasing integration within the Organization of Turkic States, potentially acting as a strategic competitor to Russian influence in the post-Soviet space while maintaining its role as a mediator.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue the "energy strangulation" campaign tonight (Dec 24-25). Following the Cherkasy TPP strike, expect further missile/drone salvos targeting the remaining 50% of the grid, specifically focusing on distribution hubs in Dnipro and Kropyvnytskyi.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the snow/wind cover in the north and the distraction of the holiday to launch a multi-brigade assault across the Gaichur River from Andreevka, seeking to establish a permanent foothold in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast before UAF reserves can be repositioned from Myrnohrad.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Andreevka Status: Immediate IMINT/UAV reconnaissance required to confirm the control of Andreevka. If the RF has crossed the Gaichur River, the defense of the Dnipropetrovsk southern flank is compromised.
Supercam Electronic Signature: Identify the specific frequencies used by Supercam UAVs for fire correction in the Pokrovsk sector to update EW jamming profiles.
Tyumen Incident: Confirm if the "neutralized" individual in Tyumen was part of a coordinated UAF/Partisan operation or a domestic security event.
Actionable Recommendations
Tactical (Dnipropetrovsk): Urgently reinforce the Gaichur River line with mobile anti-tank and mining units. The claim of clearing 500 buildings in Andreevka suggests a failure in urban defense layers that must be contained.
Operational (EW/AD): Re-task EW assets to counter the Supercam/Supercam-S variants in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) axis to blind RF fire correction.
Logistical: In anticipation of total grid failure in Cherkasy, initiate the transfer of fuel-based heating and water purification systems to the region immediately.
