(1500Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): Multiple explosions reported in Cherkasy following missile transit identified in the previous sitrep.
(1501Z, НгП раZVедка, MEDIUM): Kinetic strike on the Cherkasy Thermal Power Plant (TPP/TETs) confirmed via Russian attempt to frame the event as "self-shelling."
(1502Z, Два майора, MEDIUM): RF forces are deploying the "Glaz/Groza" (Eye/Thunder) drone system, which enables digital drone-to-artillery fire correction without reliance on satellite/GPS links.
(1500Z, Сливочный каприз, MEDIUM): Ground combat activity confirmed in Vilcha (Kharkiv region), indicating an attempted southward expansion from the Vovchansk axis.
(1500Z, Zelenskiy/Official, HIGH): President Zelenskyy delivered a formal Christmas Eve address, emphasizing national resilience during the "Sviata Vechera" (Holy Supper) period.
(1500Z, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, LOW): UNCONFIRMED report that UAF is utilizing or preparing a system designated "Flamingo" (possibly a long-range strike asset); adversarial channels are monitoring this closely.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational environment has transitioned from an aerial transit phase to an active kinetic impact phase in Central Ukraine. The RF is timing strikes to coincide with the start of Ukrainian Christmas Eve (Dec 24), seeking both infrastructure degradation and psychological disruption.
Battlefield Geometry: The focus remains on the Cherkasy infrastructure node and the Vilcha (Kharkiv) tactical breach. The engagement at Vilcha suggests the RF is attempting to bypass the hardening defenses in Vovchansk by pushing south.
Weather/Environment: 0°C conditions persist. The strike on the Cherkasy TPP (1501Z) directly targets heat and power generation at the onset of the evening peak load.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions:
GPS-Denied Fire Control: The introduction of the "Glaz/Groza" system (1502Z) is a significant tactical adaptation. By utilizing digital channels for drone-to-artillery coordination without satellite dependency, the RF is mitigating the effectiveness of UAF's high-intensity electronic warfare (EW) and GPS jamming.
Infrastructure Targeting: The strike on the Cherkasy TPP confirms the RF's intent to exacerbate the 50% generation capacity loss reported earlier today. This is a deliberate "energy strangulation" tactic.
Tactical Changes:
Kharkiv/Vilcha Push: The shift to Vilcha (1500Z) indicates a localized maneuver to exploit gaps in the northern defensive line.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Force Posture: UAF units in the Kharkiv sector are engaged in localized defensive operations at Vilcha. Strategic morale is being prioritized through high-level government messaging (1500Z).
Weapon Systems: Adversary monitoring of the "Flamingo" system (1500Z) suggests a possible new UAF capability or a disinformation bait. (UNCONFIRMED/LOW CONFIDENCE).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Disinformation Operations: Russian channels (1501Z) have immediately launched a "self-shelling" narrative regarding the Cherkasy TPP to deflect international condemnation of holiday strikes on civilian energy infrastructure.
Morale: Presidential and regional (Dnipropetrovsk OVA) Christmas messaging is designed to maintain social cohesion as the 15-20 hour blackout window begins.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain artillery pressure in the Vilcha sector to prevent UAF reserves from shifting south to Myrnohrad. In the next 6 hours, expect further "wave" drone attacks on Cherkasy and Kropyvnytskyi to prevent TPP repair crews from stabilizing the local grid.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes "Glaz/Groza" equipped units to launch a high-precision, night-time mechanized assault on Myrnohrad while UAF sensor capabilities are degraded by both the holiday timing and ongoing energy blackouts.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Cherkasy TPP Damage Assessment: Determine the extent of the turbine/boiler hall damage. Is the plant capable of maintaining islanded operation for the city?
"Glaz/Groza" Technical Signature: Require SIGINT and EW analysis of the "digital channels" used by this system to develop countermeasures against non-satellite drone fire correction.
"Flamingo" Clarification: Internal verification of the "Flamingo" designation to determine if this is a leak of a new indigenous system or a Russian information operation.
Actionable Recommendations
Tactical (EW): Deploy wide-spectrum RF jamming in the Kharkiv/Vilcha sector to intercept non-satellite drone control frequencies associated with the "Glaz/Groza" system.
Strategic (Energy): Redirect mobile power generation units to Cherkasy to support critical life-safety infrastructure following the TPP strike.
Information Ops: Counter the "self-shelling" narrative with rapid release of AD radar tracks and missile debris imagery from the Cherkasy impact site.
