(1441Z, STERNENKO/RBK-UA, HIGH): Russia has officially rejected a revised 20-point peace plan proposed by the US and Ukraine; Moscow reportedly seeks to rewrite the terms entirely.
(1437Z/1444Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): A missile bypassed Kropyvnytskyi and is currently transiting toward Cherkasy; residents have been ordered to shelters.
(1459Z, TASS, HIGH): Moscow Mayor Sobyanin has publicly called for experienced video gamers to join Russia's newly formed "unmanned forces," indicating a formalization of drone operator recruitment.
(1437Z, STERNENKO, MEDIUM): The 3rd Separate Assault Brigade (3rd OShBr) "PNK_GROUP" reports successful engagement of Russian forces in the Kharkiv region using drones modified under the "ReDrone" program.
(1456Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM): Investigative reports indicate Russian citizens are bypassing EU sanctions by obtaining fraudulent Romanian citizenship to maintain access to the European Union.
(1450Z, Два майора, HIGH): Vladimir Putin awarded state honors to prominent media propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, reinforcing the state’s commitment to its current domestic information strategy.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational environment remains defined by a high-intensity aerial campaign and a hardening of Russian diplomatic positions. The rejection of the latest peace proposal suggests that the Russian Federation (RF) intends to maintain kinetic pressure through the winter.
Battlefield Geometry: The focus of aerial activity has shifted to the Cherkasy/Central Ukraine axis. In the North (Kharkiv), tactical engagements continue with a heavy emphasis on unmanned systems.
Weather/Environment: Conditions remain stable at 0°C (Ref: 1430Z previous sitrep), supporting continued missile and UAV transit across central corridors but maintaining high stress on the energy grid during localized alerts.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions:
Unmanned Systems Maturation: The recruitment of gamers (1459Z) and the formalization of "Unmanned Systems Troops" (Ref: Daily Report) shows a strategic shift toward professionalizing drone warfare to overcome manpower quality deficits.
Deep Strike Continuity: The RF is maintaining a "rolling" missile threat, moving targets from the South (Kryvyi Rih) toward the Center (Cherkasy), likely seeking to saturate AD in regions recently affected by grid instability.
Internal Stability:
Dissent in Mil-Channels: Criticism from pro-Russian "military bloggers" (1446Z) regarding state awards for celebrities while soldiers remain wounded indicates a persistent friction point between the Kremlin’s "normalcy" narrative and the reality of frontline attrition.
Sanction Evasion: The Romanian citizenship scheme (1456Z) highlights a significant vulnerability in EU border security that the RF is exploiting to maintain intelligence and economic nodes in the West.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Tactical Adaptation: The use of "ReDrone" program assets by the 3rd OShBr (1437Z) demonstrates that UAF tactical units are successfully iterating drone technology faster than centralized RF procurement cycles.
Civil Defense: High readiness levels in Cherkasy and Kropyvnytskyi; the integrated air defense (IAD) picture is effectively providing early warning for "high-speed targets."
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Diplomatic Framing: Russian state media (RV:MAX, 1449Z) is framing the rejection of the peace plan as a failure of the West to address "Russian security concerns," preparing the domestic audience for a prolonged conflict.
Holiday Messaging: Official Ukrainian channels (1443Z) are maintaining standard holiday messaging (Christmas) to project institutional stability, directly countering the Russian disinformation identified earlier regarding "Christmas replacement."
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will conduct a kinetic strike on infrastructure or C2 nodes in the Cherkasy region within the next 1-3 hours. Concurrently, expect an uptick in drone-led localized assaults in the Kharkiv sector as the RF seeks to exploit the "Sever" grouping's recent gains at Vilcha.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the rejection of the peace plan as a pretext for a massive "holiday surge" of ballistic missiles targeting Kyiv and Western Ukrainian energy hubs, attempting to shatter the current grid stability while European governments are in a holiday stand-down period.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Cherkasy BDA: Determine the specific target of the 1437Z missile transit; assess if the target is energy-related or a logistics hub.
ReDrone Technical Specs: Analyze the effectiveness of the 3rd OShBr's "ReDrone" modifications against current RF EW (Starlink-based or otherwise).
Romanian Nexus: Identify the specific "fraudulent document" facilitators to coordinate with EU partners for border tightening.
Actionable Recommendations
Operational (AD): Shift mobile AD fire teams to cover the approach to Cherkasy. The missile flight path suggests an attempt to bypass southern AD umbrellas.
Counter-Intelligence: Increase scrutiny of personnel movements and documents in the western border regions to identify individuals potentially utilizing the Romanian fraudulent citizenship route.
Information Ops: Publicize the 3rd OShBr's tactical successes to counter the Russian narrative of "unstoppable" unmanned systems modernization.
