(1420Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): Sweden confirms a new military aid package and the commencement of training for Ukrainian pilots on JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets.
(1406Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): President Zelenskyy officially confirms Russian forces are utilizing Chinese satellite imagery to coordinate precision strikes against the Ukrainian energy grid.
(1416Z/1423Z, RBK-UA/Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): A Russian "Shahed" UAV struck a residential high-rise in Chernihiv, causing a significant fire; casualties are currently being assessed.
(1416Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM): Reports of a fatal explosion in Moscow resulting in the deaths of two police officers and one civilian. UNCONFIRMED if this is a partisan operation or an accident.
(1426Z, Operatsiya Z/FSB, MEDIUM): Russian FSB claims to have "liquidated" an individual allegedly planning a terrorist attack on a major oil pipeline in the Tyumen region.
(1430Z, Hayabusa, HIGH): DTEK reports rolling blackouts of 15-20 hours are now expected as generation capacity remains at 50% amidst 0°C temperatures.
(1432Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Missile detected transiting near Kryvyi Rih toward Kropyvnytskyi; ballistic threats persist from the north.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational tempo is characterized by a multi-axis aerial assault targeting both the energy grid and civilian psychological resilience, coinciding with increased internal security friction within the Russian Federation.
Battlefield Geometry: The focus of kinetic strikes has expanded to include Chernihiv (North) and Zhytomyr/Kropyvnytskyi (West/Central), suggesting a widening of the Russian "Shaping" effort to disrupt rear-area logistics and Air Defense (AD) density.
Weather/Environment: Temperature stability at 0°C provides a slight reprieve compared to previous -11°C forecasts, but the grid's 50% capacity loss (Ref: 1430Z) means any further degradation will lead to total regional collapses.
Technical Factors: The transition from theoretical to actual Gripen pilot training (1420Z) marks a significant leap in UAF long-term air capability and platform diversification.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions:
Strategic Reconnaissance: The integration of Chinese IMINT (1406Z) allows the RF to maintain a high-revisit rate over Ukrainian power substations, enabling them to strike immediately after repair attempts are detected.
Terror Tactics: The deliberate Shahed strike on a Chernihiv high-rise (1416Z) indicates a continued intent to force the redeployment of AD assets from the front lines to protect urban population centers.
Recent Tactical Changes: Increased activity of the "Unmanned Systems Forces" (1431Z) suggests Russia is centralizing its drone OOB to improve coordination between loitering munitions and tactical aviation in the South.
Internal Stability: Multiple reports of domestic incidents in Russia—including a Moscow explosion (1416Z), a Tyumen pipeline "sabotage" (1426Z), and a fire in central Moscow (1413Z)—suggest a heightening of internal security tension or increased partisan activity.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Posture & Readiness:
Strategic Modernization: Swedish support (Gripen training/AD package) is a critical response to the Russian "Oreshnik" and Starlink-UAV threats identified in the previous daily report.
Civil-Military Continuity: Despite strikes, Zaporizhzhia regional authorities are maintaining governance through localized educational and recovery programs (1433Z), signaling high administrative resilience.
Tactical Successes: Continued successful identification and tracking of "High-speed targets" and UAV swarms by the AFU Air Force (1405Z-1432Z) indicates the integrated air defense picture remains functional despite the frequency-regulation crisis.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Russian Disinformation: Pro-Russian channels (Alex Parker, 1425Z) are circulating a false claim that the Ukrainian Cabinet replaced Christmas with "Programmer's Day." This is a clear attempt to exploit religious sentiment and drive a wedge between the state and the Church.
State Ceremonies: Putin's televised awarding of Mikhalkov and Zakharova (1408Z, 1427Z) is likely intended to project an image of "normalcy" and "unity" to mask the reported security incidents in Moscow and Tyumen.
Criminal Exploitation: Illegal services for procuring Russian driving licenses are being advertised on war-related channels (1431Z), indicating an erosion of administrative control or increased corruption in the RF rear.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the current UAV/Missile pressure on the Kryvyi Rih - Kropyvnytskyi corridor to disrupt internal GLOCs. In the next 6-12 hours, expect a second wave of Shaheds targeting the Zhytomyr/Korosten energy nodes to capitalize on the 1409Z reconnaissance.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated ballistic and cruise missile strike, using the newly acquired Chinese IMINT, successfully hits the remaining 50% of generation capacity during the overnight period, leading to a cascading failure of the national grid and a loss of C2 over the Myrnohrad/Pokrovsk defensive sectors.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Moscow Explosion Origins: Determine if the 1416Z explosion was an IED (partisan), a gas leak (accident), or an internal RF security purge.
Gripen Timeline: Establish the estimated Date of Initial Operational Capability (IOC) for the first Ukrainian Gripen-trained crews to adjust AD integration plans.
Tyumen BDA: Confirm if any damage was actually sustained by the "Transneft" pipeline despite FSB claims of "prevention."
Actionable Recommendations
Operational (AD): Prioritize the protection of Kropyvnytskyi and Zhytomyr interconnects. The "high-speed targets" tracked at 1432Z suggest these are now primary Russian objectives for grid collapse.
Technical (EW): Intensify efforts to identify the command frequencies of the newly centralized Russian "Unmanned Systems Forces" showcased by the Ru MoD.
Counter-IO: Launch a rapid debunking campaign regarding the "Christmas replacement" narrative to prevent Russian-aligned influencers from destabilizing local communities during the holiday period.
