(1319Z, Operativnyi ZSU, MEDIUM): Ukrainian Special Operations (SBS) conducted a successful deep-strike mission against the "Shchekinoazot" chemical plant in Tula Oblast, RF.
(1329Z, Shmyhal/RBK-UA, HIGH): Formal announcement of Ukrainian pilots and technical staff beginning training on Swedish JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets, indicating a significant future upgrade to UAF multi-role air capabilities.
(1311Z, 1320Z, RBK-UA/AFU Air Force, HIGH): Repeated UAV strikes and alerts in Chernihiv specifically targeting energy infrastructure; city council confirms ongoing damage.
(1310Z, Dva Mayora, MEDIUM): Russian milbloggers describe the Kupyansk sector as "problematic," suggesting a high-intensity engagement or stalled RF momentum.
(1335Z, ASTRA, LOW): Reports circulating in Ukrainian media claim the Russian police killed in the recent Moscow explosion were involved in the torture of Ukrainian POWs. UNCONFIRMED.
(1325Z, TASS, MEDIUM): FSB claims to have "neutralized" an individual planning a terrorist attack on an oil pipeline dispatcher station in the Tyumen region.
(1308Z, Basurin, MEDIUM): RF "Dnepr" grouping claims destruction of UAF armor in the Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia) sector using advanced FPV drones.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The conflict is experiencing a surge in multi-domain activity, characterized by Ukrainian deep-strike successes and a Russian focus on regional energy collapse.
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline remains unstable in the North (Kupyansk) and South (Orikhiv/Huliaipole). Ukraine has expanded its deep-strike envelope to Tula (chemical industry) while Russia maintains pressure on the Chernihiv energy hub.
Technical Factors: The announcement of Gripen training shifts the long-term air parity outlook. In the immediate term, RF "Dnepr" and "Vostok" groupings are heavily reliant on FPV-centric tactical maneuvers to counter UAF armor.
Environmental: Severe winter conditions continue to make energy infrastructure the center of gravity for both sides.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions:
Strategic Industry: RF is tightening internal control, evidenced by the FSB's reported interdiction in Tyumen and increased censorship of digital media (1325Z).
Tactical Adaptation: Medvedev’s declaration that "drones are the priority" (1314Z) aligns with the observed deployment of Starlink-equipped loitering munitions (Ref: Daily Report 23 DEC) and successful FPV strikes in Orikhiv.
Course of Action: The RF "Sever" and "Zapad" groupings appear to be struggling in the Kupyansk sector ("problematic"), likely leading to a shift toward more intensive artillery or glide-bomb support to break the deadlock.
Command & Control: The Moscow explosion targeting siloviki (security forces) suggests an ongoing, effective sabotage campaign targeting the RF internal security apparatus.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Posture & Readiness: UAF is transitioning toward a more advanced technical posture with the JAS 39 Gripen program. This will eventually provide a counter to RF Su-34/35 dominance if training timelines are expedited.
Tactical Successes:
SBS Deep Strike: The hit on the "Shchekinoazot" plant in Tula disrupts RF chemical production relevant to propellant and explosive precursors.
Target Acquisition: The "Kara-Dag" National Guard Brigade reports significant success in locating concealed RF equipment (1329Z), likely utilizing advanced ISR assets to guide FPV strikes.
Constraints: Persistent UAV threats in Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk) and Odesa (Lyubopil) continue to stress localized AD (Air Defense) assets.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Diplomatic Framing: A Newsweek report regarding potential UAF withdrawal conditions for peace (1320Z) is being aggressively re-framed by RF outlets (WarGonzo, 1330Z) as an "ultimatum." This indicates an RF attempt to preemptively sabotage any emerging diplomatic framework.
Cultural/Social Engineering: The creation of an official Russian "Writer" professional standard (1320Z) and increased film censorship (1325Z) points to a transition toward a total-war cultural mobilization within the RF.
Psychological Operations: Pro-Russian sources are using Christmas imagery in Kremennya (1327Z) to project a false narrative of "normalization" in occupied territories.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the high-intensity UAV/missile pressure on Chernihiv to achieve a total regional grid failure before the next temperature drop. In the East, the "problematic" Kupyansk sector will see an influx of RF tactical reserves to prevent a localized UAF counter-offensive.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF succeeds in a rapid mechanized breakthrough in the Orikhiv/Huliaipole sector while UAF air defense is diverted to protect critical energy nodes in the North and West, allowing RF aviation to operate with impunity over the southern FLOT.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Tula BDA: Request satellite imagery of the "Shchekinoazot" plant to determine if production of chemical precursors for the RF defense industry has been significantly halted.
Kupyansk Disposition: Identify the specific "problems" cited by RF sources—determine if this is due to UAF electronic warfare superiority or a shortage of RF mechanized assets.
Gripen Integration: Monitor for any RF movement of S-400 or Su-57 assets toward the Western border in response to the Gripen training announcement.
Actionable Recommendations
Tactical (UAV Defense): Increase localized EW and kinetic C-UAS coverage in the Pavlohrad district (Dnipropetrovsk) to protect logistics hubs supporting the Southern axis.
Strategic (Energy): Deploy additional mobile fire groups to the Chernihiv axis specifically to intercept low-altitude Shahed-type UAVs targeting transformer substations.
Information Ops: Counter the "Zelensky Ultimatum" narrative by emphasizing the Swedish Gripen cooperation as a sign of long-term Western commitment, undermining RF "strategic patience" messaging.
