(1236Z, Oblenergo/RBK-UA, HIGH): Confirmed damage to a "significant energy facility" in the Chernihiv district following persistent UAV strikes.
(1302Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM): Russian-aligned sources claim the "Battle for Huliaipole" has entered a "decisive phase," suggesting a transition from shaping operations to a primary assault.
(1259Z, Tsaplienko/BBC-branded video, MEDIUM): Reports of a secondary explosion targeting security forces (siloviki) in Moscow, localized near a previous liquidation site. UNCONFIRMED casualty counts.
(1241Z, DTEK, HIGH): CEO Timchenko warns of the "most difficult winter," with potential 15-20 hour daily blackouts due to systematic infrastructure degradation.
(1256Z, Artamonov/Lipetsk Gov, HIGH): Red level UAV threat declared across the entire Lipetsk region (RF), indicating a wide-area UAF deep-strike operation in progress.
(1300Z, PGO Ukraine, HIGH): Kyiv City Prosecutor’s office issued a notice of suspicion in a $30,000 fraud case involving non-delivery of Mavic 3T drones, highlighting internal security efforts against procurement sabotage.
(1304Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): New UAV threats detected heading toward Kharkiv from the northeast and Odesa from the Black Sea (Grygorivka vector).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational tempo is increasing across two distinct domains: the Strategic Energy Domain (Northern/National grid) and the Zaporizhzhia Southern Axis.
Battlefield Geometry: The front is expanding. While the East (Pokrovsk) remains an attritional furnace, the RF is signaling a major push at Huliaipole (Zaporizhzhia).
Weather: Continued sub-zero temperatures are maximizing the impact of the Chernihiv energy facility strike. Grid instability is now a primary maneuver constraint for UAF rear-area logistics.
Dispositions: RF is utilizing "Okhotnik" FPV units in the Kostiantynivka direction to interdict UAF transport (1304Z), while UAF is likely employing long-range UAVs to disrupt RF logistics in Lipetsk.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions:
Zaporizhzhia: The RF "Vostok" grouping appears to be committing its tactical reserves to Huliaipole. This follows the reported capture of Andreevka (Ref: Daily Report 23 DEC), suggesting a concerted effort to roll up the southern flank.
Deep Strike: RF continues to refine the UAV-Energy strike loop. The move from "mapping" to "confirmed damage" in Chernihiv within 60 minutes indicates high responsiveness in their kill chain.
Tactical Changes: Use of FPV drones to target "logistical transport" specifically in the Kostiantynivka sector (1304Z) suggests a shift toward isolating the frontline from immediate resupply.
Command & Control: Despite the appointment of Vaganov to lead RF Unmanned Systems (Ref: Daily Report 23 DEC), the Moscow explosions (1259Z) indicate persistent vulnerabilities in RF internal security and C2 nodes within the capital.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Posture: UAF maintains high-density drone operations in the Pokrovsk sector (1239Z). The commitment of M1A1 Abrams (Ref: Daily Report 23 DEC) remains the primary stabilizer for the eastern breach.
Tactical Successes: Successful activation of deep-strike protocols triggering region-wide alerts in Lipetsk, likely targeting the 721st GRAU Training Center or local logistical hubs.
Constraints: The DTEK 15-20 hour blackout projection (1241Z) will severely degrade the repair and production capacity of decentralized DIB sites (e.g., "Motor Sich 2.0").
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Strategic Distraction: Viktor Orbán’s claim of a "Great War in 2026" (1251Z) serves as a psychological operation intended to erode European long-term support by framing the conflict as an inevitable continental catastrophe.
RF Narrative Control: Peskov’s denial of a Putin-Trump call (1243Z) aims to project RF "strategic patience" and lack of desperation for negotiations.
Internal RF Friction: Reports of famine-related deaths in Norilsk (1302Z, TASS) appearing in state media may indicate cracks in the "stability" narrative or a shift toward using social grievances for internal political purges.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will initiate a high-intensity mechanized assault on Huliaipole within the next 12-24 hours, supported by the "Vostok" group. Simultaneously, UAV strikes on Chernihiv will expand to include the Slavutych power nodes to trigger a regional blackout.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated RF breakthrough at Huliaipole coincides with a total grid collapse in Northern Ukraine, forcing UAF to move reserves across a dark, frozen landscape under constant "Molniya-Starlink" UAV surveillance.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
Huliaipole FLOT: Need GEOINT confirmation of RF armored movements toward Huliaipole to determine if the "decisive phase" claim is substantiated.
Moscow Security Breach: Verify the target of the 1259Z explosion. If a high-ranking C2 official was targeted, assess the impact on RF operational continuity in the "Sever" grouping.
Lipetsk BDA: Immediate BDA required for the Lipetsk region to confirm if GRAU munitions sites were successfully interdicted.
Actionable Recommendations
Tactical (Zaporizhzhia): Immediately reinforce Huliaipole with mobile anti-tank reserves. The "Vostok" grouping's shift to a "decisive phase" indicates an imminent mechanized push.
Logistical (National): Prioritize the delivery of industrial-grade generators to the Chernihiv district to maintain C2 and drone-operator battery cycling during the 15-20 hour blackouts.
Internal Security (C-Sabotage): Expand the Kyiv drone fraud investigation; audit all Mavic 3T/3E procurement contracts over $10k to ensure the disruption is not part of a wider RF-sponsored sabotage of the supply chain.
