(1110Z, GS AFU/Liveuamap, HIGH): Russian aviation conducted a major strike package targeting Pokrovske (Dnipropetrovsk region), signaling an expansion of the air campaign across the administrative border.
(1110Z, GS AFU/Liveuamap, HIGH): Intensive multi-settlement clashes confirmed in the Kostiantynivka direction (Scherbynivka, Yablunivka, Kleban-Byk) and Pokrovsk direction (11 settlements).
(1114Z, STERNENKO, MEDIUM): UAF "YOKAI" operators successfully intercepted a Russian "V2U" strike UAV equipped with artificial intelligence (AI) for terminal guidance.
(1118Z-1128Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Ongoing Russian UAV penetration into Chernihiv Oblast, specifically targeting/passing Horodnya, Slavutych, and Chernihiv city.
(1115Z, Mash na Donbasse, MEDIUM): Russian forces are employing low-tech counter-UAS (C-UAS) adaptations, specifically using nets dropped or launched from UAVs to intercept Ukrainian drones.
(1122Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Russian state media is amplifying reports that Ukraine will spend 10.4% of its GDP ($28.2B/year) on debt servicing, likely part of an economic exhaustion narrative.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy/Kursk):
Vovchansk/Vilcha: Fighting persists near Prylipka. Geolocation data confirms the frontline remains volatile near the Vilcha-Vovchansk corridor (Slyvochnyy Kapriz, 1123Z).
Sumy/Kursk: UAF successfully repelled one Russian assault in the border region (1111Z). This suggests RF is maintaining high-frequency, low-intensity "probing" attacks to fix UAF reserves.
Eastern Axis (Donbas):
Pokrovsk Sector: Combat intensity remains at its peak. Clashes are reported in a broad arc including Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk city outskirts, and Udachne. Russian aviation is heavily supporting these ground assaults (1110Z).
Kostiantynivka/Lyman: RF has intensified pressure on the Siversk-Kostiantynivka line. Significant activity noted near Scherbynivka and Kleban-Byk, indicating an attempt to widen the salient south of Bakhmut (1110Z).
Kupyansk: Clashes continue near Kruhlyakivka and Petropavlivka, confirming RF intentions to reach the Oskil River (1110Z).
Dnipropetrovsk Border: Russian airstrikes on Pokrovske (Dnipropetrovsk) (1110Z) confirm that RF is now routinely striking targets inside the oblast, likely aiming at logistical staging areas for the Pokrovsk front.
Zaporizhzhia: Airstrikes hit a wide array of settlements (Huliaipole, Orikhiv, Mala Tokmachka), suggesting a shaping operation for a potential mechanized push (1110Z).
Kherson: Engagement reported near the Antonivskiy Bridge (1110Z), indicating persistent "grey zone" activity on the Dnipro River islands.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Surge: The GS AFU report (1110Z) shows a high volume of tactical aviation usage across the entire southern and eastern fronts. This suggests the RF has established localized air superiority or is willing to accept higher airframe risk to support the winter offensive.
Technical Adaptation (AI UAVs): The deployment of V2U AI-strike drones (1114Z) confirms the RF is moving toward autonomous terminal guidance to bypass UAF EW. This requires an immediate shift in C-UAS tactics to prioritize kinetic "hard-kill" solutions over jamming.
Logistical Friction: Small-scale solicitations for PKM machine gun boxes (1107Z) suggest that while strategic assets (like the new tanker-icebreaker, 1107Z) are being fielded, tactical-level logistics for infantry units remain inconsistent or dependent on volunteer procurement.
Friendly activity (UAF)
C-UAS Success: Intercepting AI-guided drones indicates that UAF specialized units (YOKAI) are successfully adapting to the evolving threat profile.
Active Defense: UAF maintains a high tempo of defensive operations, particularly in the Pokrovsk sector, utilizing M1A1 Abrams (per previous report) and mobile fire groups to contain the multi-axis RF pressure.
Information environment / disinformation
Economic Attrition Narrative: Russian sources (TASS) are pivoting to highlight Ukraine's long-term debt burden (1122Z) to discourage international partners and sap Ukrainian domestic morale regarding post-war recovery.
"Negotiation Readiness": Reports of Russia preparing a "negotiation position" (1122Z) coupled with US Ambassador Whitaker's comments (1134Z) are being framed by pro-Russian channels to suggest that Russian resolve is higher than Western political will.
Internal Distraction: RF mil-bloggers (Starshiy Edda) are framing domestic security failures (related to partisan actions mentioned in previous reports) as "scams" by "Ukrainian swindlers" to delegitimize organized resistance (1120Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued high-intensity airstrikes and UAV probes in the Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia border region to disrupt the flow of UAF reinforcements toward Pokrovsk.
MDCOA: RF utilizes the "frozen ground" conditions and AI-guided UAVs to launch a concentrated mechanized breakthrough toward the N15 highway from the south, aiming to cut off the Pokrovsk logistical hub entirely.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
V2U Technical Specs: Urgent need for wreckage analysis of the AI-enabled V2U drone. Does it use optical flow, pre-loaded terrain mapping, or object recognition?
Dnipropetrovsk BDA: Assess the damage to logistical nodes in Pokrovske (Dnipropetrovsk) following the 1110Z airstrikes.
C-UAS Net Effectiveness: Monitor the impact of Russian "net-drones" on UAF FPV mission success rates.
