(1102Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH): UAF 425th Assault Regiment "Skela" has conducted the first recorded combat engagement with M1A1 Abrams tanks in the Pokrovsk sector, providing fire support for assault groups.
(1036Z, Kharkiv ODA, HIGH): Casualty figures from the RF missile strike on the Kharkiv energy infrastructure have risen to 1 KIA and 13 WIA.
(1104Z, Operatsiya Z/Naftogaz, HIGH): Sustained RF strikes targeted "Ukrnafta" facilities and wider energy infrastructure; emergency power shutdowns have been implemented in multiple regions.
(1044Z, RBC-Ukraine/GUR, MEDIUM): Ukrainian-linked partisans allegedly liquidated Russian police officers in Moscow who were reportedly involved in the torture of Ukrainian POWs.
(1055Z, AV Bogomaz, MEDIUM): RF air defenses claim to have intercepted 18 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs over the Bryansk region.
(1100Z, PGO, HIGH): Ukrainian General Prosecutor’s Office neutralized a corruption scheme in Dnipro involving the embezzlement of 14 million UAH intended for school winterization/insulation.
(1105Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Active Russian UAV tracks identified over Chernihiv (Kholmy), Dnipropetrovsk (Bozedarivka/Petropavlivka), and Kherson.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy/Chernihiv):
Kharkiv: The casualty count from the morning's TPP strike has increased (1036Z). The RF continues to prioritize the degradation of heating capacity during the current cold snap.
Chernihiv: A new UAV track toward Kholmy (1105Z) from the northeast indicates persistent cross-border reconnaissance or one-way attack (OWA) vectors targeting northern logistical nodes.
Eastern Axis (Donbas/Pokrovsk/Kupyansk):
Pokrovsk: Tactical shift from deployment to active engagement. The 425th "Skela" Regiment’s use of Abrams tanks for direct fire support (1102Z) confirms the UAF is utilizing its most capable armor to stabilize the sector against RF "Courier" UGV assaults noted in previous reports.
Kupyansk: Russian mil-bloggers ("Starshiy Edda") acknowledge "problems" in this sector (1038Z), likely referring to the failed subterranean infiltration near the "Soyuz" pipeline reported at 1017Z.
Dnipropetrovsk: Multiple UAV tracks are moving toward Bozedarivka and Petropavlivka (1036Z, 1045Z). These vectors suggest the RF is seeking to interdict the E50/M30 GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication) connecting Dnipro to the Pokrovsk front.
Kherson: UAV activity detected moving from the northeast toward the city (1055Z), likely part of a spot-correction effort for Russian tube artillery on the left bank.
Zaporizhzhia: RF forces (36th Motor Rifle Bde) have claimed full control of Zarechnoe (1041Z). This solidifies the "Vostok" grouping's position on the southern flank, increasing the threat of a push toward the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Infrastructure Attrition: The targeted strikes on "Ukrnafta" (1104Z) combined with the earlier Kharkiv TPP hit indicate a multi-domain "Energy Siege." By targeting fuel (Ukrnafta) and electricity/heat simultaneously, the RF seeks to freeze domestic logistics and sap civilian morale.
Internal Security Friction: The liquidation of security personnel in Moscow (1044Z) and the reported hit on Gen. Sarvarov indicates an escalating partisan campaign within the RF rear. Russian sources are attempting to frame these as "fraud-induced" acts to downplay organized resistance (1054Z).
Counter-UAS Activity: High volume of UAV activity over Bryansk (1055Z) suggests UAF is maintaining pressure on RF border regions to fix air defense assets away from the front.
Friendly activity (UAF)
High-End Capability Employment: The commitment of Abrams tanks to active fire missions in Pokrovsk indicates that the UAF considers the current RF pressure in the East to be an operational-level threat requiring the expenditure of strategic assets.
Internal Cleanup: The PGO’s action in Dnipro (1100Z) is a critical "Home Front" victory, ensuring that resources for winterization reach frontline-adjacent populations rather than being diverted.
Information environment / disinformation
"Terrorist" Framing: Pro-Russian channels are aggressively framing the Moscow partisan hits as "terrorist attacks" orchestrated by "swindlers" (1054Z), likely to mitigate the psychological impact of Ukrainian reach into the Russian capital.
Geopolitical Diversion: Russian sources ("Two Majors") are circulating unconfirmed reports of US Navy failures in Venezuela (1045Z). This is a standard "distraction" narrative aimed at suggesting US global overstretch.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV and missile pressure on the Dnipropetrovsk energy hub and logistical nodes (Petropavlivka) to disrupt the flow of reinforcements to Pokrovsk.
MDCOA: RF utilizes its consolidated position in Zarechnoe to launch a mechanized thrust toward the N15 highway, attempting to sever the southern supply route to the Donbas grouping.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Pokrovsk BDA: Need immediate assessment of Abrams combat effectiveness against "Courier" UGVs. Are Western fire-control systems successfully identifying low-profile robotic targets?
Ukrnafta Damage Assessment: Determine the extent of fuel production loss. Is the current emergency shutdown (1104Z) a temporary safety measure or the result of catastrophic infrastructure failure?
Moscow Partisan Network: Verify if the "police liquidation" (1044Z) involves a local cell or an infiltrated special operations group; this affects the assessment of RF internal security stability.
