(1008Z, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): Targeted RF missile strikes hit a Combined Heat and Power Plant (TPP/CHPP) in the Kharkiv suburbs, resulting in 1 KIA and 11 WIA (confirmed by Kharkiv ODA at 1019Z).
(1017Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH): The UAF 115th Separate Mechanized Brigade (115th OMBr) neutralized two Russian assault platoons attempting a subterranean infiltration via the "Soyuz" gas pipeline near Kupyansk.
(1022Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Repeated KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) launches targeted the Zaporizhzhia region, following the RF consolidation of Zarechnoe.
(1023Z, Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM): UAF Special Unit "CMTR" confirmed the successful deployment of Ground Robotic Complexes (GRC) for front-line logistics and strike coordination.
(1030Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM): RF 16th Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Protection (RChBP) Brigade is deploying specialized incendiary UAVs on the Vremivka axis.
(1024Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Dmitry Medvedev claimed 417,000 contract enrollments for 2025; however, internal reports (1007Z, Sever.Realii) indicate recruits with severe medical disabilities (e.g., vision -5.5, arthrosis) are being forced into "storm" units without commissions.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy/Chernihiv):
Kharkiv: The RF has pivoted to high-precision strikes on energy infrastructure (TPP). This suggests a systematic effort to collapse local heating/power during the -11°C cold snap.
Chernihiv/Slavutych: Active UAV tracks are moving toward Slavutych (1017Z) and Gorodnya (1012Z). The vector toward Slavutych (near Chernobyl NPP) is of high concern for rear-area security.
Eastern Axis (Donbas/Pokrovsk/Kupyansk):
Kupyansk: RF tactics have evolved to include industrial/subterranean infiltration. The attempt to use the "Soyuz" pipeline indicates a high-risk effort to bypass UAF surface fire zones. The failure of two platoons in the "kill zone" (1017Z) suggests UAF has successfully mapped these ingress points.
Vremivka: The introduction of 16th RChBP incendiary drones (1030Z) marks a tactical escalation in "clearing" UAF treelines and fortified positions through thermal suppression.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Zaporizhzhia: Following the fall of Zarechnoe (confirmed by RF sources at 1034Z), the RF is utilizing the captured territory as a launchpad for intensified KAB strikes (1022Z).
Dnipropetrovsk Border: UAV tracks from the east toward Dnipro city (0936Z) indicate persistent reconnaissance for deep-strike vectoring.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Innovation: RF is increasingly relying on non-standard movement (pipelines) and specialized payloads (incendiary UAVs). The use of the 16th RChBP (traditionally flame-thrower/NBC units) in drone roles indicates a shift in their doctrinal employment for urban/fortified clearance.
Manpower Quality: While official figures claim high recruitment (417k), the report of a "nearly blind" recruit forced into a storm unit (1007Z) suggests severe degradation in the quality of the "Vostok" and "Sever" groupings' replacements.
Strategic Intimidation: Orbán’s warning of a 2026 European war (1017Z, TASS) serves the RF narrative of "unavoidable escalation," aimed at fracturing NATO resolve.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Resilience: The 115th OMBr demonstrates high tactical awareness in the Kupyansk sector, maintaining a "kill zone" over critical industrial infrastructure.
Technical Integration: Successful use of GRCs by CMTR units (1023Z) provides a counter-capability to the RF "Courier" UGVs noted in the previous daily report, specifically in logistics and high-risk extraction.
Information environment / disinformation
"Newsweek" Withdrawal Claim (1034Z, UNCONFIRMED, LOW): Russian channels are circulating claims of a UAF "withdrawal from Donbas" linked to a "peace plan." Assessment: This is likely a Russian-orchestrated disinformation campaign aimed at inducing panic in frontline units and testing Western reactions. No official UAF sources corroborate this.
Internal RF Stability: FSB reported thwarting a hostage situation in a Kurgan colony (1021Z). While isolated, this points to localized internal security friction within the RF's penal/military system.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will continue the "Dark Winter" campaign, focusing KAB and missile strikes on the Kharkiv TPP and wider energy grid to exploit the current sub-zero temperatures.
MDCOA: RF utilizes additional industrial pipeline routes in the Kupyansk or Pokrovsk sectors to bypass UAF's M1A1-supported lines, attempting to establish bridgeheads in the UAF immediate rear.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Pipeline Mapping: Urgent requirement for GEOINT/Industrial schematics of all gas/water pipelines crossing the FLOT in the Kupyansk and Pokrovsk sectors.
Incendiary UAV Technical Specs: Need debris analysis of the 16th RChBP drones to determine the chemical composition of payloads (e.g., thermite vs. white phosphorus) for medical and EW countermeasures.
Slavutych Intentions: Determine if UAV tracks toward Slavutych (1017Z) are for reconnaissance of the N-NPP or targeting logistical nodes for Northern reserves.
