(0923Z, TASS/RuMoD, HIGH): Russian forces have officially secured Zarechnoe (Zaporizhzhia direction). Video evidence (0917Z) and official confirmation transition this from "Likely" to CONFIRMED RF CONTROL.
(0905Z, Operativno ZSU/Naftogaz, HIGH): Naftogaz reports nearly 100 UAVs have targeted production facilities over the last 48 hours, marking a sustained shift from distribution nodes to primary energy production.
(0912Z, Ukrenergo/RBC-UA, HIGH): Emergency power outages have been implemented in multiple regions following the latest wave of strikes; the grid remains unstable.
(0922Z, RBC-UA, MEDIUM): RF strikes on Pivdennyi Port have resulted in a significant oil leak into the Black Sea, indicating successful hits on liquid bulk terminals or storage.
(0933Z, Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM): Tactical report indicates RF forces attempted an unconventional infiltration near the "Soyuz" gas pipeline using the pipe infrastructure itself for cover.
(0910Z, 0925Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Active UAV threats detected over Kharkiv Oblast (heading toward Sakhnovshchyna) and Sumy Oblast (toward Stepanivka).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy):
The threat from loitering munitions remains constant. UAVs are currently transiting southeastern Kharkiv and central Sumy (Stepanivka). These are likely Shahed-type platforms or long-range reconnaissance assets (Orlan-10/Supercam) vectoring for follow-on strikes. The ground situation in Sumy (Hrabovske) remains a point of friction following yesterday's 100-man incursion.
Eastern Axis (Donbas/Pokrovsk):
RF "Rubicon" drone units are heavily active in the Donbas (0920Z), focusing on FPV strikes against UAF hardware. The "Soyuz" pipeline infiltration attempt (0933Z) suggests RF is seeking "blind spots" in UAF surveillance by utilizing industrial corridors. Consolidation in Svetloye continues as per the previous report.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk):
With the fall of Zarechnoe, the RF "Vostok" Group of Forces has improved its tactical positioning. This gain likely facilitates a push toward the N15 highway or serves as a northern anchor for operations against Huliaipole. UAF Southern Command reports high attrition of RF assets (300 personnel and 100+ units of equipment in 24h), indicating intense defensive fire even as ground is traded.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Targeting Evolution: The RF has successfully pivoted its air campaign to energy production (Naftogaz/Ukrnafta). By using nearly 100 drones in 48 hours, they are attempting to overwhelm AD through volume while specifically targeting the extraction and processing layer of the energy sector.
Environmental Warfare: The strike on Pivdennyi Port and the resulting oil leak (0922Z) suggests a deliberate or secondary objective of creating ecological and logistical hazards in the Black Sea to complicate maritime operations.
Industrial Readiness: The first flight of the "Baikal" aircraft with the Russian VK-800 engine (0931Z) indicates a successful, albeit long-term, pivot toward domestic military-logistical aviation to bypass Western sanctions on aerospace components.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Attrition: UAF Southern Defense Forces are effectively executing a "delay and decay" strategy, reporting the destruction of 2 tanks, 1 BMP, and 144 shelters in the last 24 hours.
Civil-Military Continuity: President Zelenskyy is managing domestic expectations regarding the 20-point peace plan, explicitly stating that martial law and mobilization will not terminate immediately upon a ceasefire (0934Z), signaling a transition to a "long-term armed peace" posture.
Information environment / disinformation
Peace Plan Rhetoric: Russian state media (TASS, Kotsnews) is actively "deconstructing" the Ukrainian 20-point plan, framing it as "stillborn" or "unacceptable" (0916Z, 0929Z). This is a classic reflexive control tactic aimed at dampening international optimism for the US-Putin dialogue.
Domestic Distraction: Russian media is highlighting domestic legal changes (Moscow transit fines, 0905Z) and aviation milestones to project a "business as usual" image despite the high attrition on the front.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain UAV pressure on the energy grid throughout the night to prevent repairs and keep frequency regulation unstable. Ground forces in Zaporizhzhia will begin probing west of Zarechnoe to identify the new UAF main defensive line.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated multi-axis UAV/Missile strike on Naftogaz extraction sites in the Poltava/Kharkiv regions, aimed at a total halt of domestic gas production during the sub-zero temperature window.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Pivdennyi BDA: Request high-resolution SAR/EO imagery of the Pivdennyi Port liquid terminals to assess the extent of the infrastructure damage beyond the oil leak.
Soyuz Pipeline Vulnerability: Identify other sectors where the "Soyuz" or "Druzhba" pipeline corridors offer subterranean or shielded movement for RF assault groups.
Zarechnoe Withdrawal: Confirm if UAF forces conducted a managed withdrawal to the next prepared line or if the RF breakthrough resulted in the loss of equipment.
