(0840Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Video evidence released claiming Russian "Vostok" Group of Forces has secured Zarechnoe (Zaporizhzhia direction); previously unconfirmed, now assessed as LIKELY RF CONTROL.
(0841Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): Russian "Tsentr" Group (2nd Guards CAA) reports "mop-up" operations in Svetloye (Pokrovsk/Donetsk sector), indicating a tactical advance.
(0844Z, Ukrenergo/Operativno ZSU, HIGH): Overnight strikes on energy infrastructure have caused emergency outages in Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv regions; stabilized grids have failed.
(0851Z, Naftogaz/RBC-UA, HIGH): Second consecutive day of targeted aerial campaigns against Ukrnafta production facilities, shifting from distribution nodes to primary production.
(0901Z, Zelenskyy/Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM): Potential direct communication between US leadership and Putin regarding the 20-point peace plan expected today.
(0903Z, Kharkiv Metro, HIGH): Rail service on the Kharkiv Metro has been RESTORED following earlier stoppages (cf. 0835Z report), though the city remains under ballistic threat.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy): Intense fire pressure continues. Multiple high-speed targets (ballistic/hypersonic) detected targeting Kharkiv and Staryi Saltiv (0857Z). Reconnaissance UAVs are active in SE Sumy (0903Z), likely spotting for follow-on tube or rocket artillery.
Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk/Donetsk): RF "Tsentr" Group is consolidating gains in Svetloye. Pro-Russian sources (Arkhangel Spetsnaza) claim UAF is massing for counterattacks near Myrnohrad (Dimitrov), suggesting a high-friction environment where RF expects Ukrainian tactical reserves to be committed.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk): The situation in Zarechnoe has likely transitioned to RF control. Reconnaissance UAVs are loitering on the southern outskirts of Zaporizhzhia city (0854Z), indicating potential preparation for a multi-axis strike or ground push toward the N15 highway.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift: RF is increasingly synchronizing reconnaissance UAVs with high-speed missile assets. UAVs in Kherson, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia (0903Z) are acting as real-time target acquirers for "high-speed targets" (0850Z-0857Z).
Strategic Energy Degradation: The RF has narrowed its targeting focus to Ukrnafta production assets. This is an attempt to degrade Ukraine's long-term fuel autonomy and internal revenue while simultaneously using frequency-regulation hits to trigger emergency outages in five regions.
OOB Observation: Presence of African mercenaries within RF assault units is documented (0847Z), confirming continued reliance on foreign recruits to sustain high-attrition assault tempos.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Posture: UAF Air Defense is actively engaged with recon UAVs and incoming missiles over Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. The restoration of the Kharkiv Metro suggests effective localized damage control and civil-military coordination.
Strategic Signaling: President Zelenskyy is preparing the domestic political space for potential negotiation outcomes, stating that martial law may persist for 3-6 months post-peace agreement and suggesting a simultaneous referendum and elections (0848Z, 0852Z).
Internal Security: The General Prosecutor’s Office has moved against internal corruption, exposing a 70m UAH theft in Kharkiv’s energy procurement (0900Z). This is a critical move to maintain donor confidence and morale during the infrastructure crisis.
Information environment / disinformation
Reflexive Control: RF sources (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 0901Z) are emphasizing "impending UAF counterattacks" to frame RF offensive actions as "preemptive" or "defensive."
Diplomatic Pacing: Ukrainian reporting focuses on the US-Putin dialogue, aiming to project a sense of movement toward a diplomatic resolution to maintain public morale during the blackout period.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue the ballistic surge against Kharkiv and the energy production facilities of Ukrnafta to maximize leverage ahead of today’s potential US-Russia communications.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A synchronized breakthrough from Zarechnoe toward the Huliaipole-Zaporizhzhia GLOC, timed with a regional blackout in Dnipropetrovsk, isolating UAF southern groupings.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Svetloye Confirmation: Need independent verification (GEOINT) of the depth of the "mop-up" in Svetloye to determine if the Pokrovsk defensive belt has been breached.
Ukrnafta BDA: Assess the percentage of production capacity lost in the last 48 hours to estimate fuel reserve windows.
Zarechnoe FLOT: Establish the new Forward Line of Own Troops (FLOT) west of Zarechnoe to identify the next viable UAF defensive line.
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY:
SITUATION: Multi-region energy instability combined with tactical RF gains in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk.
ENEMY: Executing "Recon-Strike" complexes using UAVs and high-speed missiles.
FRIENDLY: Maintaining civil order and air defense while preparing for a potential diplomatic pivot.
PREDICTION: High-intensity fire cycle until the conclusion of US-Putin communications.
