(0815Z, Воин DV, LOW): Russian "Vostok" Group of Forces claims the capture of Zarechnoe (Zaporizhzhia direction); this remains UNCONFIRMED by Ukrainian sources.
(0835Z, РБК-Україна/Kharkiv ODA, HIGH): Massed aerial bombardment of Kharkiv and its suburbs; the city metro has suspended operations due to strikes or power instability.
(0809Z, РБК-Україна/ASTRA, HIGH): President Zelenskyy detailed a 20-point peace plan, featuring a 50/50 joint venture with the US for Zaporizhzhia NPP (ZNPP) management.
(0824Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): Launch of ballistic missiles from Belgorod (RF) targeting the Kharkiv region, following multiple waves of KAB (guided bomb) strikes.
(0831Z, Zaporizhzhia ODA, HIGH): Renewed missile/drone strikes on Zaporizhzhia city reported; at least four civilians injured.
(0819Z, MVD Russia, HIGH): Official confirmation of the deaths of two Moscow police officers in the South Moscow bombing, as RF sources pivot to a "phone scammer" coercion narrative (0812Z).
IPB METHODOLOGY ANALYSIS
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a significant intensification of Russian "fire pressure" on urban centers, particularly Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. The battlefield geometry is expanding in the Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk border) following the claimed capture of Zarechnoe.
Weather: Continued sub-zero temperatures (-11°C) sustain high terrain trafficability for mechanized units.
Infrastructure: The stoppage of the Kharkiv metro indicates either direct damage to energy distribution or a precautionary measure against catastrophic grid failure following the ballistic and KAB strikes.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Course of Action: The RF is executing a synchronized multi-domain assault. While "Vostok" Group pushes for tactical gains (Zarechnoe), the Air Force is using Belgorod as a primary launch point for ballistic and KAB strikes to saturate Kharkiv's air defenses (0824Z-0832Z).
Tactical Shift: In the Rodinske sector (East), RF is documented using "tactical viewpoint" footage, likely utilizing the previously reported "Courier" UGVs or specialized assault groups to maintain tempo (0816Z).
Internal Security: The Russian state is attempting to domesticate the Moscow bombing incident by framing it as a financial scam/coercion (NgP RaZVedka, 0812Z) and simultaneously executing large-scale asset seizures (Chubais, 0811Z) and financial arrests (Mordovia, 0823Z) to project control and suppress dissent.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Strategic Initiative: The UAF leadership is attempting to regain the diplomatic initiative via the "20-point plan." The specific ZNPP proposal (50/50 management with the US) is a calculated move to force Western involvement in the physical security of nuclear infrastructure.
Tactical Posture: UAF is currently in a "absorb and hold" phase in the North. The suspension of the Kharkiv metro suggests a prioritization of energy for defensive needs or civilian survival during the strike window.
Readiness: Zelenskyy's mention of potentially canceling or adjusting mobilization (0827Z) if a peace agreement is signed indicates a shift toward preparing the domestic population for potential negotiation outcomes.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Reflexive Control: RF mil-bloggers (Colonelcassad, Kotsnews) are aggressively framing the 20-point plan as a "delaying tactic" or "cocaine-fueled" propaganda (0820Z, 0833Z). This is designed to preempt any domestic RF discussion of the plan’s merits.
Mediation Efforts: The Holy See's proposal for "24 hours of peace" (0831Z) is being utilized by Ukrainian media to highlight RF's continued strikes during a proposed humanitarian window.
Internal RF Messaging: Official RF channels are highlighting the move to AI-monitored financial declarations for officials (0811Z), likely a "clean hands" propaganda effort to mask internal corruption or loyalty tests.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the high-intensity fire cycle over Kharkiv for the next 6-12 hours to facilitate a ground push toward the suburbs. The "Vostok" group will attempt to consolidate the Zarechnoe foothold to threaten UAF logistics in the Huliaipole sector.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A ballistic strike originating from Belgorod targets the Kharkiv energy transit hub, resulting in a regional blackout during the -11°C cold snap, coinciding with a mechanized breakthrough in the Zarechnoe/Andreevka corridor.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Zarechnoe Status:URGENT - Require GEOINT or drone feed to confirm if UAF has withdrawn from Zarechnoe or if it remains a contested "grey zone."
Kharkiv Infrastructure BDA: Assess the specific cause of the metro stoppage (direct hit vs. power surge) to determine the resilience of the city's C2 and logistics.
Belgorod Launch Sites: Identify the specific locations of the ballistic launchers in Belgorod to facilitate potential counter-battery or deep-strike planning.
Peace Plan Legitimacy: Monitor official MoFA channels for the formal document release to differentiate from Telegram-circulated versions (ASTRA vs. RBC-UA).
