(0755Z, Дневник Десантника, MEDIUM): Russian offensive operations have intensified in the Huliaipole sector (Zaporizhzhia), signaling a shift from fixing actions to active assault maneuvers.
(0756Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): Deployment of RF reconnaissance UAVs detected over Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv oblasts; these are assessed as active spotters for imminent artillery or missile strikes.
(0802Z, NM DNR, MEDIUM): RF 68th Reconnaissance Battalion (ORB) conducted strikes on a Ukrainian truck and a Ground Robotic Complex (NRTK) in Andreevka and Rayske, confirming active RF engagement with UAF technical assets in the newly contested Dnipropetrovsk border region.
(0800Z, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM): President Zelenskyy has reportedly articulated a 20-point peace plan, which includes a 50/50 US-Ukrainian management proposal for the Zaporizhzhia NPP (ZNPP).
(0751Z, Novosti Moskvy/Kotenok, HIGH): The Moscow bombing casualties are confirmed as two police lieutenants (Klimanov and Gorbunov). Russian sources are now circulating a narrative that the perpetrator was coerced by "phone scammers," likely to deflect from internal security failures or insurgent links.
(0755Z, Air Force UAF, HIGH): New wave of Shahed-type UAVs entering Sumy oblast from the north, maintaining the "swarm and saturate" pressure on northern air defenses.
(0751Z, UN via Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): UN data confirms a 26% increase in Ukrainian civilian fatalities in 2025 compared to 2024, highlighting the increased lethality of RF deep-strike and "scorched earth" border tactics.
IPB METHODOLOGY ANALYSIS
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational geometry is expanding as RF forces transition from the capture of Andreevka to localized offensive actions in Huliaipole. The frontline now intersects the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border, forcing UAF to manage a new defensive axis.
Weather: Sustained -11°C temperatures are facilitating mechanized movement across frozen terrain, which RF is exploiting in the Huliaipole and Lyman sectors.
Air Domain: Increased presence of RF recon UAVs over Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia suggests a high-priority targeting cycle is currently active.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Course of Action: RF is utilizing a "recon-strike" loop, deploying spotter UAVs (0756Z) to identify UAF technical assets (like the NRTK/UGVs) and logistics before engaging with tactical aviation or specialized recon units (68th ORB).
Internal/Hybrid Tactics: The "phone scammer" narrative for the Moscow bombing (0802Z) serves a dual purpose: it mitigates public fear of organized insurgent cells while simultaneously framing the incident as external manipulation, potentially to justify further restrictions on digital communications or "Grey Zone" retaliations.
Sustainment: The report on the "Baikal" aircraft engine (from previous sitrep) and the 2036 Lunar Power project (0804Z) indicate a concerted state effort to project long-term industrial stability despite current sanctions.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Diplomatic/Strategic Initiative: The leak/announcement of the 20-point peace plan suggests a pivot toward defining "red lines" for infrastructure management (specifically ZNPP), likely to preempt RF attempts to permanently integrate the plant into their grid.
Defensive Posture: UAF Air Defense remains highly active in the North (Sumy) and East (Kharkiv), but the 26% increase in civilian casualties underscores the limitations of the current interceptor density against massed drone/missile strikes.
Technical Deployment: The presence of UAF Ground Robotic Complexes (NRTK) in the Andreevka sector (0802Z) indicates that UAF is deploying unmanned systems to counter RF's "Courier" UGVs and mitigate infantry exposure in high-threat zones.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Cognitive Operations: RF channels (Kotsnews, 0739Z) are highlighting US missile deployments in Europe to reinforce the "existential threat" narrative and justify continued domestic mobilization.
Disinformation/Reflexive Control: The "Czech Model" aid cessation rumor (previous sitrep) remains uncorroborated and is assessed as a HIGH-likelihood disinformation operation intended to demoralize frontline units during the cold snap.
Internal RF Friction: The "Archangel Spetsnaz" defense of Maxim Divnich against other military elements (0746Z) suggests growing vertical and horizontal friction within RF paramilitary/special forces circles.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will launch a localized mechanized push toward Huliaipole within the next 6-12 hours, supported by the tactical aviation currently active in the East (0736Z).
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated strike using the recon UAVs over Zaporizhzhia (0756Z) to target UAF C2 nodes or the M1A1 Abrams staging areas in the Pokrovsk-Zaporizhzhia transition zone, timed with a Shahed swarm to saturate AD.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
ZNPP Peace Plan Authenticity: Urgent verification of the "20-point plan" through official MoFA/OP channels to determine if this is a strategic leak or Russian-origin "peace-washing" disinformation.
Huliaipole Force Composition: Identify if the RF offensive in Huliaipole involves reserves from the "Vostok" grouping or if it is a reallocation of units from the Pokrovsk axis.
Andreevka UGV BDA: Confirm the loss of the NRTK asset; determine if RF has successfully captured UAF robotic technology for exploitation.
