(0705Z, Поддубный |Z|О|V|, HIGH): Russian forces (36th Motorized Rifle Brigade, 29th Army) have confirmed the capture of Andreevka on the east bank of the Hrychur River, effectively establishing a foothold on the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border.
(0733Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): UAF GUR "Artan" special unit, in coordination with the "Tрійка" unit, conducted localized offensive operations in the Lyman sector, indicating active Ukrainian counter-pressure in the East.
(0707Z, Дневник Десантника, MEDIUM): RF claims a successful strike by "Geran" (Shahed) UAVs on a Ukrainian military echelon (logistics train) in Zhytomyr Oblast. UAF Air Force confirmed UAV presence in the Malyn area at 0708Z.
(0734Z, Операция Z / ТАСС, HIGH): The Moscow bombing has been confirmed as a fatal incident; two police officers (ages 24 and 25) were killed.
(0710Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): RF forces utilized Grad MLRS against UAF positions in the Hulyaypole sector, coinciding with "high-speed targets" (missiles) detected over Zaporizhzhia (0717Z).
(0725Z, ТАСС, MEDIUM): Russia reports the first flight of the "Baikal" aircraft with a domestically produced engine, signaling a strategic effort to bypass aviation sanctions.
(0729Z, Рыбарь, LOW): Claims that Czechia is ending its military aid coordination ("Czech Model"). [UNCONFIRMED / POTENTIAL DISINFORMATION]
(0734Z, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM): New Levada Center polling indicates a record low in Russian domestic support for the war.
Operational picture (by sector)
Lyman Sector: UAF is transitioning from static defense to localized offensive maneuvers. The involvement of GUR special forces ("Artan") suggests high-priority tactical objectives, likely aimed at disrupting RF assembly areas or C2 nodes.
Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Border: The capture of Andreevka is a significant operational development. RF forces are now focused on expanding the bridgehead across the Hrychur River to facilitate a westward advance toward the N15 highway.
Zhytomyr/Rear Logistics: RF continues to prioritize the interdiction of Western aid and reinforcements moving toward the front. The targeting of a rail echelon in Zhytomyr indicates high-quality RF intelligence regarding UAF troop and equipment movements.
Southern Axis (Hulyaypole/Zaporizhzhia): Increased kinetic activity involving MLRS and high-speed missile strikes suggests a coordinated effort to fix UAF forces in Zaporizhzhia and prevent their redistribution to the Dnipropetrovsk border.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Ground Tactics: In Andreevka, RF utilized dense mining and combined-arms suppression (UAVs and machine guns) to overcome urban defenses (500+ buildings cleared). This demonstrates a systematic, if slow, approach to urban breaching.
Strategic Aviation: The "Baikal" engine milestone suggests RF is making progress in long-term industrial resilience, though immediate battlefield impact is negligible.
Internal Security Stress: The Moscow bombing fatalities and a 13-year-old’s arrest in Astrakhan for plotting "terror attacks" (0706Z) indicate that RF internal security (FSB/MVD) is increasingly overstretched by both insurgent cells and radicalized individuals.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Offensive Actions: The Lyman operations demonstrate that UAF retains the capability for offensive initiative in the East despite the pressure in Pokrovsk and the North.
Air Defense: Continued monitoring of UAV incursions over Zhytomyr and Sumy. A "high-speed target" (likely Kh-59/69 or Iskander) toward Zaporizhzhia was tracked, though BDA is pending.
Morale/Sustainment: Official focus remains on veteran services (0710Z) and crowdfunding for technical assets (Sternenko, 0716Z), maintaining the link between the civilian population and the front.
Information environment / disinformation
Historical Parallelism: RF channels are heavily promoting the 83rd anniversary of the Tatsinskaya Tank Raid (0055Z) to frame current operations as a continuation of WWII "Great Patriotic War" victories, likely to counter the "low war support" reported by Levada.
Aid Disruption Narrative: The @RYBAR report on Czechia ending aid is a classic "reflexive control" tactic aimed at demoralizing UAF forces and encouraging other EU partners to reconsider their support.
Domestic Normalization: Russian state media continues to highlight non-war topics (iPhone smuggling, animal rescues) to project an image of internal stability despite the bombings in the capital.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will attempt to consolidate Andreevka and push reconnaissance elements toward the Hrychur River's west bank.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massive follow-up missile strike on the Zhytomyr rail infrastructure to fully paralyze the western GLOC (Ground Line of Communication) while UAF is engaged in the Lyman counter-push.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Andreevka Perimeter: Determine the exact depth of the RF bridgehead on the west bank of the Hrychur River.
Zhytomyr BDA: Confirm the extent of damage to the "military echelon." If armored vehicles or ammunition were lost, identify the impacted units.
Czech Policy: Verify the "Czech Model" status through diplomatic channels to neutralize the Rybar disinformation.
IPB METHODOLOGY ANALYSIS
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The frontline is expanding into the administrative territory of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The weather remains a critical factor, with frozen ground facilitating the mechanized movement seen in the Andreevka assault.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capability: RF is successfully integrating "Geran" UAVs into deep-strike operations targeting logistics (Zhytomyr).
Internal: The loss of two young officers in Moscow will likely trigger more aggressive internal security sweeps, potentially alienating the "low support" demographic noted in polling.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Flexibility: UAF is using GUR units for high-impact, localized offensives in Lyman, likely to force RF to pull reserves from the Pokrovsk axis.
Vulnerability: Dependence on rail logistics in the West is being exploited by RF "Geran" swarms.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Pivot: Russia is using historical WWII anniversaries to bolster morale as domestic polling numbers for the war decline. Ukraine is focusing on the long-term social contract (veteran care).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Decision Point: UAF High Command must decide whether to reinforce the Dnipropetrovsk border at the cost of the Lyman offensive or maintain the Lyman push to force a Russian withdrawal elsewhere.
RECOMMENDATIONS:
Rail Security: Implement mobile EW "umbrellas" for military echelons in transit through Zhytomyr and Khmelnytskyi to counter Geran/Shahed targeting.
IO Campaign: Counter the "Czech aid" narrative immediately with a joint Ukrainian-Czech ministerial statement to prevent morale degradation.
Tactical Mining: Increase the use of remote mining (RAAMS) on the west bank of the Hrychur River to stall the 36th MRB's expansion from Andreevka.
