(22:29, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Nationwide air raid alerts triggered due to a multi-vector threat involving both OWA-UAVs and ballistic missiles.
(22:27, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Threat of ballistic missile employment from the northern direction (RF territory).
(22:25, AFU Air Force, HIGH): New wave of OWA-UAVs (Shaheds) detected entering Zaporizhzhia airspace from the east.
(22:11, Операция Z, LOW): Claims of Siversk falling under RF control. UNCONFIRMED; assessed as a pro-Russian information operation to demoralize UAF following recent tactical shifts. (Операция Z, 2025-12-23 22:11:11)
(22:12, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Moscow court frozen 12bn RUB in assets belonging to Anatoly Chubais, confirming the ongoing internal purge of "liberal-era" figures to streamline the war economy. (Colonelcassad, 2025-12-23 22:12:48)
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Sumy/Kyiv): The threat has escalated from OWA-UAVs (reported 2200Z) to a potential ballistic strike. This indicates a high-intensity "dual-threat" profile designed to saturate Air Defense (AD) radars.
Donetsk Axis (Siversk/Pokrovsk): Russian information channels are aggressively pushing a narrative that Siversk has been captured. This contradicts earlier reports of a stable northern shoulder at Serebrianka. No kinetic evidence supports a UAF withdrawal at this time.
Zaporizhzhia Axis: A new threat vector has opened from the east. Combined with earlier unconfirmed reports of a breakthrough at Varvarivka, this drone activity suggests a concerted effort to disrupt UAF tactical reserves behind the Huliaipole line.
Rear Areas: Nationwide alerts are in effect. The combination of ballistic threats from the North and drones from the East/Sumy indicates a coordinated strike against the national power grid or C2 nodes.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Multi-Domain Strike Profile: The RF is currently executing a combined strike. By using OWA-UAVs to "mask" or draw AD fire, they are preparing the environment for ballistic arrivals from the north. This is a classic saturation tactic.
Information Operations: The claim regarding Siversk is timed to coincide with the kinetic pressure of the air alerts. The intent is to create a "collapse narrative" in the information domain while the physical domain is under maximum stress.
Internal Consolidation: The seizure of Chubais’s assets (12bn RUB) signals the Kremlin’s intent to liquidate the remaining assets of the pre-2022 elite to sustain the high burn rate of mechanized and unmanned operations.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: All AD units and Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are at maximum readiness. Interception efforts are active in the Zaporizhzhia and Sumy corridors.
Counter-Disinformation: Monitoring of the Siversk sector indicates that while the situation remains tense, UAF units continue to hold defensive positions; the RVvoenkory/DeepState-leveraged claims are currently being countered by operational reality on the ground.
Information environment / disinformation
Siversk Narrative: Pro-Russian sources are attempting to use the name of the "DeepState" project to add credibility to claims of Siversk’s fall. Analysts should treat "Операция Z" reports as high-priority disinformation intended to induce tactical panic.
Strategic Distraction: Concurrent TASS reports on astronomical events (2026 eclipses) are being used to maintain a "business as usual" facade for the Russian domestic public amidst intensifying front-line actions.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Integrated strike package (Ballistic + UAV) will target energy infrastructure in Central and Western Ukraine between 0000Z and 0400Z. RF will continue to use the Siversk "fall" narrative to mask lack of ground progress elsewhere.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A ballistic strike on C2 nodes in the Sumy region to decapitate the defense against the Hrabovske incursion, followed by a secondary mechanized push toward the N07 highway.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Siversk FLOT: Immediate confirmation of the Forward Line of Own Troops (FLOT) in Siversk via drone feed or signals intelligence to debunk RF claims.
Ballistic Launch Platforms: Identify the specific launch sites for the northern ballistic threat (Iskander-M vs. KN-23).
Zaporizhzhia Drone Vector: Determine if the eastern UAVs in Zaporizhzhia are targeting the NPP or logistics hubs in the Dnipro-Zaporizhzhia corridor.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield has transitioned into a period of high-intensity kinetic and information pressure. The RF is leveraging its centralized unmanned command to coordinate drone waves with ballistic missile threats from the north, aiming to paralyze the UAF's response capacity during the ongoing -11°C cold snap.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Kinetic: The RF is utilizing "layered timing"—drones launched at 2200Z and 2225Z act as the first layer to identify AD locations, followed by the ballistic threat at 2227Z as the high-speed strike layer.
Hybrid: The use of "RVvoenkory" to spread rumors of Siversk's fall is a calculated move to force UAF command to divert attention or reserves from the Pokrovsk sector.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)
Readiness: UAF air defense assets are the primary engaged force at this hour. Ground forces in Siversk are under heavy psychological pressure but remain in situ according to recent situational context.
Logistics: The nationwide alarm may impede the movement of the M1A1 Abrams units in Pokrovsk as they seek overhead cover to avoid detection by the current UAV wave.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Assessment: The RF info-space is attempting to bridge the gap between "tactical stagnation" and "strategic success" by manufacturing the fall of Siversk. This is a high-volume, low-fact campaign.
Decision Point: If Siversk claims are un-rebutted, it may lead to secondary panic in adjacent sectors. Immediate official UAF clarification is required.
6. RECOMMENDATIONS
Strategic Communications: Immediately issue a verified visual update from the Siversk sector to neutralize the "Операция Z" disinformation campaign.
Tactical AD: Prioritize ballistic missile defense (Patriot/SAMP-T) for northern vectors, while delegating OWA-UAV (Shahed) engagement in Zaporizhzhia to Gepard and MFG units.
Operational Security: Maintain strict EMCON (Emission Control) for reserves in the Sumy and Pokrovsk sectors to avoid being targeted by the current ballistic wave.
