(22:00, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Multiple OWA-UAVs (Shaheds) detected in northern Sumy Oblast, currently on a western heading toward the Ukrainian interior. (AFU Air Force, 2025-12-23 22:00:16)
(22:02, TASS, MEDIUM): Moscow court seized assets totaling 11.9bn RUB belonging to Anatoly Chubais. While internal to the RF, this indicates continued consolidation of financial control and potential purging of "liberal" era figures to fund war efforts or solidify internal loyalty. (TASS, 2025-12-23 22:02:48)
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Sumy/Chernihiv): The detection of OWA-UAVs moving west from northern Sumy suggests a coordinated effort to strike rear-area logistics or energy infrastructure in the Kyiv/Chernihiv corridors. This follows the recent RF ground incursion at Hrabovske.
Donetsk Axis: High-intensity KAB (guided aerial bomb) strikes continue (ref: 21:15Z report) as RF forces attempt to suppress UAF regrouping efforts west of the Siversk-Hrabovske line.
Zaporizhzhia Axis: Situation at Varvarivka remains UNCONFIRMED. No new data has corroborated the 21:27Z report of an RF breakthrough. Low confidence remains regarding territorial changes in the Huliaipole sector.
Pokrovsk Sector: Stabilization efforts continue with the presence of M1A1 Abrams (425th Reg); however, the threat of "Courier" UGVs and Starlink-equipped loitering munitions remains the primary technical challenge.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
UAS/Loitering Munition Vectors: The western heading of the drones in Sumy suggests a "deep strike" mission profile. Given the -11°C temperatures and the recent damage to the Burshtyn TPP, these assets are likely targeting frequency-regulation nodes or regional electrical substations to induce a cascading grid failure.
Internal Stability (RF): The legal action against Chubais (TASS, 22:02) serves as a signal to the Russian elite that the "Rosnano" era of economic flexibility is over, reinforcing a shift toward a total war economy under centralized Kremlin control.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense (AD) Engagement: Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) and EW units in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions have been transitioned to high readiness to intercept the westward-moving UAVs.
Active Defense: Armored units in Pokrovsk are maintaining standoff distances to mitigate the threat of RF "Courier" UGVs, focusing on long-range kinetic engagement of robotic platforms.
Information environment / disinformation
Internal RF Scapegoating: The TASS report on Chubais is being utilized within the Russian information space to distract from front-line casualties by highlighting "justice" against former officials.
Strategic Deception: The concurrent "peace framework" signaling (ref: 21:27Z report) serves to mask the ongoing escalation in drone and KAB usage, attempting to present the UAF's defensive stance as "obstructionist" to a negotiated settlement.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High Probability (MLCOA): Integrated strike involving the current OWA-UAVs in Sumy, potentially timed with a second wave of missile or loitering munition launches between 0300Z-0500Z to maximize pressure on the energy grid during peak cold.
Ground Operations: Expect continued probing attacks in the Varvarivka/Huliaipole sector as the RF attempts to exploit the perceived shift in UAF focus toward the Northern (Sumy) incursion.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Target Identification (Sumy UAVs): Determine if the current UAV wave is intended for Kyiv or if it is a tactical flight path to strike logistics hubs in the Poltava/Chernihiv region.
Varvarivka Confirmation: (CRITICAL) Immediate GEOINT or UAV recon required to verify the presence of RF mechanized assets in Varvarivka.
Starlink-UAV Proliferation: Monitor for any increase in "Molniya" drone accuracy in the Sumy sector, which would indicate widespread distribution of Starlink-integrated terminals.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently dominated by a multi-vector drone offensive. While ground movement has slowed since the fall of Siversk, the RF is utilizing its centralized "Unmanned Systems" command (Gen. Vaganov) to maintain pressure. The -11°C weather remains a critical force multiplier for RF strikes against the energy grid.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Tactical Shift: The RF is moving from "mass" drone attacks to "precision" drone attacks, facilitated by Starlink integration. This allows for mid-flight target redirection, bypassing pre-programmed jamming zones.
Logistics Status: Activity at the 721st GRAU Training Center remains a concern; new artillery crews may be deployed to the Sumy axis to support the Hrabovske incursion within the next 48-72 hours.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)
Readiness: UAF reserves are currently stretched across three distinct pressure points: Sumy (North), Pokrovsk (Center), and the Huliaipole/Varvarivka junction (South).
Constraints: AD munitions expenditure remains high due to the persistent "Shahed" and "Molniya" threats, necessitating continued prioritization of critical infrastructure protection over frontline CAS.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
RF Narrative: Framing internal purges (Chubais) as "cleaning house" to project strength and stability to the domestic audience during a period of intense battlefield attrition.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the current tempo of UAV strikes throughout the night, using the Sumy-Kyiv corridor to force UAF to reveal AD positions.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF ground forces in the Sumy sector expand the Hrabovske incursion into a full-scale mechanized push toward the N07 highway, coinciding with a breakdown of the energy grid due to the current UAV wave.
6. RECOMMENDATIONS
Sector-Specific AD: Reallocate MFGs from central regions to the western Sumy/Chernihiv flight paths to intercept UAVs before they reach Kyiv's outer defense ring.
Technical Countermeasures: Execute "Starlink Denial Protocols" (ref: Daily Intel Summary) in the Sumy sector. Anticipate that standard EW may fail; prioritize kinetic hard-kills.
Internal Security: Monitor for potential RF sleeper cell activity in the Sumy/Chernihiv rear, intended to coordinate with the westward UAV movement for terminal guidance or BDA (Battle Damage Assessment).
