(19:06, 19:16, Zelenskyy/KMVA, HIGH): Defense Minister Umerov and Deputy Commander Hnatov have returned from the US with "working drafts" of agreements finalized with the Trump administration; reporting indicates Ukrainian positions have been strengthened in these documents.
(19:23, Air Force ZSU, HIGH): Russian OWA-UAVs (Shahed-type) detected over northern Poltava Oblast, currently on a vector toward Kyiv Oblast.
(19:29, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): UAF SBS (Special Operations) confirmed the destruction of two Russian BM-21 "Grad" MLRS systems in the Donbas sector.
(19:14, 19:15, TASS/Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): A private aircraft carrying the Libyan Army Chief of Staff (Tripoli government) crashed near Ankara, Turkey; potential impact on Turkish regional influence.
(19:33, Colonelcassad, LOW): RF "Hunter" Spetsnaz claims to have intercepted UAF supply pickups using FPV drones; UNCONFIRMED tactical loss.
(17:13, 19:32, Multiple, LOW): Russian internal security (Nizhny Novgorod) is reportedly searching for an individual codenamed "Chervyak" (Worm); UNCONFIRMED relevance to partisan/sabotage operations.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment is currently defined by a high-stakes diplomatic consolidation phase coupled with a persistent Russian aerial threat. While ground maneuver remains constrained by severe cold (-11°C to -16°C), the RF is maintaining pressure through OWA-UAV incursions targeting the Kyiv/Poltava corridor.
Battlefield Geometry:
Northern Axis: RF maintains a fixation strategy in Sumy (Hrabovske) and Kharkiv (Vilcha), while using the Poltava air corridor to penetrate central Ukraine.
Donbas Sector: Tactical "tug-of-war" continues; UAF successfully attriting RF indirect fire assets (MLRS) to degrade Russian preparatory fires.
Aerial Operations: The launch of OWA-UAVs toward Kyiv (19:23Z) suggests a night-time effort to saturate GBAD (Ground Based Air Defense) and identify gaps in the electronic warfare umbrella.
Tactical Interdiction: The deployment of specialized "Hunter" Spetsnaz units using FPVs against logistics (19:33Z) indicates an RF focus on disrupting "last-mile" delivery to UAF frontline positions, likely to exploit the logistical strain caused by the current cold snap.
Hybrid/Global Factors: The crash of the Libyan military delegation in Turkey may be exploited by RF disinformation to frame Turkish-Western security cooperation as "unreliable" or "unsafe."
Logistics & Sustainment:
RF internal security activity in Nizhny Novgorod (search for "Chervyak") may indicate a crackdown on domestic sabotage groups targeting the Russian defense-industrial base (DIB) or logistics hubs in the rear.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING) (IPB Step 3)
Operational Posture:
Strategic Diplomacy: Ukraine has successfully transitioned from "introductory" to "drafting" phases with the incoming US administration. The involvement of Umerov and Hnatov suggests a focus on hardware requirements and future force structure (2026 support programs).
Counter-Battery/Interdiction: Successful destruction of RF MLRS (19:29Z) demonstrates effective joint targeting between SBS and artillery units, reducing the enemy's ability to conduct area-denial strikes.
Air Defense: UAF Air Force reports high efficacy in recent engagements (19:14Z), maintaining a credible deterrent against VKS (Russian Aerospace Forces) fixed-wing assets.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
RF Influence Operations: Pro-Russian channels (Rybar) are highlighting the departure of the US Ambassador to Armenia as a sign of Western "abandonment" (19:31Z). This is a regional PSYOPS intended to demoralize CSTO/Post-Soviet states considering a pivot to the West.
Domestic Support: President Zelenskyy’s announcement of 2026 support programs is likely aimed at maintaining long-term civilian morale despite the energy crisis and economic strain.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF OWA-UAVs currently over Poltava will enter Kyiv Oblast within the next 1-3 hours. Expect a synchronized strike involving 10-15 units to pressure the capital's energy infrastructure.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF exploits the cold-induced thermal signature of UAF logistics vehicles (detected by "Hunter" units) to launch a concentrated FPV swarm against the Pokrovsk supply lines, coinciding with the UAV strike on Kyiv to paralyze C2.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
OWA-UAV Payload: Verify if the drones approaching Kyiv are equipped with the Starlink-enabled "Molniya" guidance system identified in earlier reports.
Diplomatic Specifics: Identify "stronger points" mentioned in the US-Ukraine working drafts—specifically regarding long-range strike authorizations or 2026 munitions quotas.
"Chervyak" Identity: Determine if the search in Nizhny Novgorod is related to the recent strike on the 260th GRAU Base or other DIB sabotage.
7. RECOMMENDATIONS
Kyiv/Central GBAD: Immediate alert for mobile fire groups (MFGs) in Kyiv and Chernihiv oblasts to intercept the Poltava-originated UAV wave.
Logistics Concealment: Units in the "Hunter" Spetsnaz Area of Operations must utilize thermal masking and vary supply routes; the reported FPV success against pickups indicates RF has identified specific transit "choke points."
Strategic Communication: Amplify the "working draft" success with the US to counter RF narratives of Armenian-style "abandonment" in the information space.
