(18:48, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH): SBU confirms a synchronized multi-stage operation in the Black Sea; UAF neutralized a Russian Il-38N maritime reconnaissance aircraft specifically to blind RF anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities prior to the successful strike on a submarine in Novorossiysk.
(19:02, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): Confirmed Russian OWA-UAV strike on the 9th floor of a residential building in Chernihiv; ongoing search and rescue/casualty assessment.
(18:52, 18:57, Air Force ZSU, HIGH): Multiple launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) detected targeting Sumy and Donetsk oblasts.
(19:01, Zelenskiy / Official, HIGH): Defense Minister Umerov and Deputy Commander Hnatov returned from the US after meetings with Trump administration representatives; reports indicate "working drafts" of agreements are being finalized with strengthened Ukrainian positions.
(18:41, STERNENKO, MEDIUM): Successful UAF FPV drone strikes on 8 RF personnel at the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk administrative border, confirming active engagement in this contested sector.
(18:43, РБК-Україна, HIGH): Russian natural gas revenues have reportedly collapsed to pandemic-era levels (corroborated by Reuters), indicating severe long-term fiscal attrition for the RF war machine.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational tempo is currently dominated by Russian aerial standoff strikes (KABs) and OWA-UAV incursions against civilian infrastructure in the North. Simultaneously, the UAF has executed a significant operational-level victory in the maritime domain by dismantling the RF's reconnaissance-strike complex (RSC) in the Black Sea.
Weather/Environmental Factors:
Severe Cold: A peak cold snap (-16°C) is hitting Moscow and Western Russia (TASS, 19:02). This environmental factor will likely strain RF internal logistics and energy consumption, potentially slowing the throughput of reinforcements to the front.
Frozen Ground: Favors mechanized movement in the Donbas, but high-altitude KAB launches remain the primary RF method of engagement due to UAF ground-based air defense (GBAD) persistence.
Aerial Attrition: The RF continues to rely on KABs (Sumy/Donetsk) to bypass tactical EW. The strike on a high-rise in Chernihiv (19:02) suggests either poor targeting precision or a deliberate shift toward terror-bombing to induce civilian flight.
Naval Vulnerability: The loss of the Il-38N (reconnaissance aircraft) is a critical capability gap. Without this platform, the RF Black Sea Fleet’s ability to detect UAF surface drones and semi-submersibles is severely degraded, leaving the Novorossiysk naval base increasingly vulnerable.
Internal/Strategic Factors:
Economic Strain: Natural gas revenue declines (18:43) are reaching critical thresholds. This may force the RF to accelerate mobilization or tactical gains before fiscal constraints impact military industrial output.
Social Control: Tightening migrant transparency (18:35) suggests the RF Security Council is moving toward more aggressive internal security measures, possibly to facilitate forced recruitment or crack down on labor-based unrest.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING) (IPB Step 3)
Operational Successes:
Asymmetric Naval Doctrine: The SBU’s neutralization of the Il-38N prior to the submarine strike (18:48, 19:03) demonstrates high-level operational art. By identifying and removing the "eye" of the RF ASW system, UAF created a temporary window of total maritime superiority.
Tactical Resilience: UAF drone units (e.g., "Aivenho and friends") continue to hold the line at the Dnipropetrovsk border (18:41), utilizing FPV technology to mitigate RF personnel advantages.
Diplomatic Posture:
US Transition Engagement: The direct reporting of "working drafts" of agreements with the incoming US administration (19:01) indicates Ukraine is proactively shaping the future security architecture. The emphasis on "full cooperation" signals a strategic pivot to secure long-term military aid stability.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
RF Projection Operations: Pro-Russian channels (Colonelcassad, 18:41) are circulating hypothetical strike schemes for Dec 22-23. ASSESSMENT: This is a psychological operation (PSYOP) intended to maintain a "permanent threat" atmosphere while the actual strike tempo is limited by munition availability.
Regional Defense Framing: Russian channels are highlighting Polish Patriot batteries (18:54) to frame NATO's Eastern Flank as an "escalatory" environment, likely to justify continued RF presence in Belarus.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue KAB strikes on Sumy and Donetsk to fix UAF reserves. In the next 6-12h, expect OWA-UAV waves toward Dnipropetrovsk following the "course to the east" detected at 19:02.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Exploiting the current -16°C weather in the rear, RF launches a concentrated mechanized assault on the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk border, banking on the thermal degradation of UAF defensive positions and the potential "brittle" points identified in earlier reports (130-day rotations).
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Novorossiysk Submarine BDA: Urgent need for satellite confirmation of the submarine's hull integrity following the SBU/Il-38N operation.
Chernihiv Casualty Figures: Monitor local MBA reports for the impact of the 9th-floor hit to assess the specific UAV type used (was it a "Molniya" with Starlink?).
KAB Launch Platforms: Identify the specific airfields used for the 18:52/18:57 launches to facilitate potential deep-strike counter-battery actions.
7. RECOMMENDATIONS
Air Defense (Chernihiv/Sumy): Shift mobile fire groups to the northern corridors; the use of OWA-UAVs against residential high-rises indicates a targeting shift that requires layered defense closer to urban centers.
Maritime Opportunism: Leverage the current "blind spot" in RF maritime recon (following Il-38N loss) to conduct follow-up surface drone strikes on logistics vessels or remaining naval assets in the eastern Black Sea.
Counter-IO: Publicize the revenue collapse of Russian gas (18:43) alongside UAF military successes to counter RF "hypothetical strike" propaganda.
